[Ice age on the way (merged threads)]

The problem with the "all views are equal" argument is that when measured in terms of quality of content and knowledge informing the thinking, and objectivity of opinion, not all views ARE equal. Interpolating between misguided points of view is rather like assuming that putting a broken drive shaft into a broken engine will miraculously produce motive power. It won't.

Ice Age now, as with any bigotted viewpoint, would have more credence if it occasionally acknowledged the other point of view. Not only does it not do this, but it blatantly misrepresents, or alternatively represents only very selectively, the data that is there. Like a good few posters on here come the winter, it is a monument to hope over reality.

SB

Nice post, you are consistent to say the least. Point of weakness in your argument is that Climatology has NOT ben cracked. Even current levels of knowledge are somewhat short of the mark as regards to definitism, your comparisons are misleading and at best unfair because a scientist, although packed/equiped with data cannot accurately predict weather per say beyond 'reliable' timeframe which is a week!? Trends possibly but then trends are trends and people on here have demonstrated ability to highlight a trend. A complete and utter novice could theoretically be as accurate as any expert or scientist to future prediction...within reason one would suggest...but who really knows

BFTP

Some also have to remember that when they read websites off the internet they need to know the souses to them.Like Ice age now.Is run not by a scientist or a forecaster but by a Auther who got into climate change or in this case ice ages.And like alot of Authers to get people to by there books he made an web site about it base on his opinion.The reason why I beleave he does it talk much about the other side of the debate much is he is more on the cold side of the debate then the warm side.But that alot of the problems in my opinion with eather side of this debate.Is each side talks about the one sided exstream and not enough about the hole and big picture instead if we have any storms,heat wave coldwaves,tornados snow storms,floods it eather blamed on global warming or on the other side of the debate a inpending iceage.

[Sea Surface Temperature And Sea Ice Trends]

I will start this thread by saying that Carinthian will be releasing his monthly sea ice update on tuesday.

As for sea surface temperatures, as you can see from the chart below, the La Nino is decreasing and the begginings of a El Nino are forming. As you can see there is a heavily beaurificated Jet Stream in the Pacific Ocean as well as in the Atlantic Ocean.

As it is hard to pick out the future trends for synoptics based on sea surface temperature anomolies, i thought that we would compare the current situation to the same time last year, as is shown on the chart below.

As you can see from that chart, it clearly favoured a mid-Atlantic High but crusially a much stronger Jet Stream which meant that due to the placement of the thermal gradiant the Jet Stream was much stronger however due to the Atlantic High, there were breif northerly outbreaks at the beggining of April last year.

Due to the position of the anomolies this year, i would favour a dominant Atlantic High once again, although weaker and more widespread than lat year, centred closer to the British Isles however i do not expect a sustained negative NAO period due to the northern arm of the Jet Stream being too strong resulting however i expect a stronger southern arm of the Jet Stream although i expect it to sharply rise northward over the British Isles however instead of a Bartlett situation i expect high pressure to toplle over the British Isles resulting in a sunny, cool and dry beggining to April.

Another reason for a strong jet stream this year esppeally in the USA Pac Jet this winter was in part thanks to what we had a record breaking exstream Easterly QBO event.Which are winds that blow eather west or east which are the phases west and east and changes every 12 months or so.moderate to strong East QBOs winters are featured with strong to at times very strong Pac Jets patterns.Which for the most part kelp most of the cold lock up to the North.The Easterly QBO is on a riseing standpoint all those still moderate.As far as the NAO this winter.Unfornatey it seemed like we just could it by a sustanied negative NAO periolds this winter.And when we did get negative NAOs it was it the classic set up that many would have wanted to see.And the blocks were modest at best.