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ronant

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    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Thursday remains subject to considerable uncertainty - primarily, how quickly the frontal zone decays as it sinks southwards, having (we expect) lost the principal upper forcing off westwards. The likely result - on present balance - is a spell of fairly widespread but generally light and increasingly fragmented snowfall into southern-central England, with the focus ever towards the SE, but crucially some EPS members (a not insignificant minority) want to spin things up somewhat down in the SE and increase the heavy snow risk. But present consensus is for ligher snow, a very cold evening (New Year's Eve) and widespread ice risk.

    Thanks for taking the time to reply. It's certainly a fascinating winter!

    South West England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A little note to stress that the snow risk for upland Glos (especially) is reflected by the UKMO FLASH warning (valid to 1800hrs) for good reason. The transient snowfall reliably reported thus far to the BBC from various people in the Forest of Dean, some parts of Cotswolds and indeed further afield (e.g., near Radstock, B&NES) is a precursor to this second frontal zone / PPN swathe now moving northwards.

    Interesting stuff Ian - thankyou. Living in North East Wiltshire we saw a little sleet 10 mins ago as the precipitation got heavier but now its back to slightly lighter rain.

    Could i ask the situation for Thursday? Your post yesterday did say there was the chance of some very heavy snowfalls, but ive seen no mention of that anywhere since. What's the latest?

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ronant

    General trend becoming clearer now.

    Once the LP clears we see a shortlived ENE,ly. However this isn't going to be a classic E,ly with heavy snow showers in E areas. What happens beyond this is it remains fairly dry and very cold with the exception of Scotland who might see more prolonged snow due to the SW.

    Beyond this and the flow changes towards to a slack N/NW,ly but remaining mainly dry and very cold. After this we see a LP system tracking S but to be honest im going way too far ahead.

    At the moment if your after snowfall then it looks as though your best chance is via this LP. Otherwise I cannot see much potential for snowfall with the exception of E Scotland. However in saying this surprise snowfall often comes along and im not 100% the models have +168 to +240 correct yet.

    Hmm looks to me like there will be some very significant snowfall for the south as the frontal zone sinks southwards. Reckon this will effect southern central areas, the south east. With a strong wind conditions could be very very nasty. After that its just FI really IMO.

    But starting tomorrow we have three very disruptive days of snow effecting very large parts of England and Wales.

    Cold Spell General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ronant

    Hadn't seen this posted anywhere. The Met Office have issued this warning -

    This is the first warning of disruption due to Heavy Snow. The Met Office is expecting a period of heavy snow to develop across Southwest England and much of Wales during Wednesday night and this is expected to extend across the Midlands, London, the Southeast of England and East Anglia during Thursday morning. There is also a risk that the snow will extend into parts of northern England for a time before dying away from all areas during Thursday afternoon. Accumulations of 2-5cm are expected quite widely inland, with 10-15cm possible for parts of the Midlands and Wales. Rain is more likely close to southern coasts where less cold air is expected. The period of snow could cause disruption to travel networks, especially across high level routes and the fact that timing of this event will coincide with the morning rush-hour. This warning will be updated by 1100 tomorrow, Wednesday 7th February 2007.

    Valid from 11pm tomorrow to 3pm Thursday.

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