Barmada Casten
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Posts posted by Barmada Casten
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Well no snow delivered today as expected.
And Thursdays 'event' will bring nothing here.
This winter is almost, if not as, bad as 16/17 for this location. Truly pants.
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Absolutely nailed on my prediction for today. Rain and a brief sleet shower is all we have just as I predicted.
All the talks of 'something significant' etc proving to be the usual ramping nw nonsense.
Something significant set to come in 7-10 days though lol.
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20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Disappointing so far here, just one or two very light sleety snow showers lasting barely 5 minutes - main shower activity seems to be further south and north west. Hoping we see another trough feature preferably around early evening, and that any further showers that do hit us, are much longer lasting an heavier in nature. This evening and overnight seems best time for showers, and it looks a very cold one indeed as well - ice will be a major hazard. Fells are cloaked white which is nice to look at least.
Nothing here just as expected, surprise surprise snow has passed to the south as usual.
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I haven't made too many friends on the north west regional thread having predicted a downgrade in Tuesdays event which was set to hit the region and the cold period that was speculated to follow.
BBC seem to be going with the Tuesday band not being anything significant which was our regions best hope.
Disappointing but not surprised, it has happened so many times over the years!!
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1 hour ago, JeffC said:
Well the road from Coniston to Ambleside was shut for a while yesterday and we've still got snow at valley level but Ambleside has nowt.
@cheshire snow to be fair the BFTE was a let down snow wise in the south and west of Cumbria mainly due to rain shadow effects. Clearly seen on the radar, it was truthfully but no but a sprinkle of snow...
It was closed due to an accident
Not due to snow.
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On a positive note does anybody know what the certainty is on the Tuesday event and wether the snowfall will be significant?
My understanding is were looking at a couple of cm's on low levels across the region.
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18 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
I'd like to refrain from reposting your comments - but really I'm not sure where you are coming from. Wake up in the morning and the fells will be cloaked white.
We are not let down every time snow is predicted, we often do very well, and very often see surprise snowfalls when others in the region don't.
If anything on Monday night and Tuesday morning we are in prime territory for snow, more so than the rest of the region, the front is coming from the NW, the precipitation will be its heaviest here, we have the central fells in the way so the air will be cooled much more so compared to coastal parts of the region.
I appreciate you thoughts but you do post with lots of pessimism and dispondency.
OK point taken and I will certainly take your comments on board, I truly hope you are right - I guess what happened to me last year will never really leave me.....
Looking to Tuesday now.
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13 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
Thoughts on Tuesday guys?
Rain to start. Back edge snow. Sleet/Snow showers behind the front?
Not expecting much on Tuesday for my part of the region anyway (the north west is a big ole place),
I am expecting a complete massive let down as per every predicted snow event.
Please do not shoot me down like usual just because I am not forecasting 6 feet of snow and 3 months of blizzards.
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Now moderate rain, no snow cover whatsoever, it is below freezing.
A pretty disappointing day which as usual had loads of potential but brought nothing.
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6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
In Ambleside itself maybe. But as I said earlier in this thread you can literally go for a walk up Wansfell Pike (with a 482m elevation) and see more snow than many people in the North West have even a remote chance of seeing snow, even when many of the region would need to drive miles to see it. If you live in a town that's 74m above sea level you need to temper your expectations with regards to snow in the town itself, but complaining about that when you live in the hilliest and one of the snowiest general areas of the country is a bit ridiculous.
One thing is for sure if you start reporting substantial snowfall next week the rest of us can rest easy and enjoy the fireworks.
Very true!
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1 minute ago, damianslaw said:
I would remain very much optimistic, dewpoints, temperatures etc will be on the right side, just need some frontal activity, a trough to move through and there should be no problem at all.
Hope your right mate but I am not optimistic at all, there certainly wont be any significant snowfall - perhaps just a touch of wintry-ness.
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1 minute ago, Dizuke said:
Ive been lurking these forums for the past 3 years and the charts still dont make sense to me. Anyone got a youtube video that kinda explains them a little?
Welcome to the forum mate!
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1 minute ago, damianslaw said:
Sleety wet snow on and off this afternoon, has enabled a thin slushy layer of snow to coat grass, roof, car park, pavement and car roof surfaces. Its not been heavy enough to produce a general cover - borderline situation, but pleasing to note, and bodes very well for next week.
Expecting to see a white snowy scene tomorrow morning on the fells.
Same here in Ambleside mate!
I disagree that it bodes well for next week - I think the best we will get in our parts is 1 - 2 cm. If anything at all.....
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12 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
Glad that your interested, and I appreciate we're all here to talk about the weather and not to get each others backs up so you're asking in good faith.
Whilst there's clearly nothing in the models for our region as of yet that would possibly fall into the category I've described above as yet what there's almost unanimous agreement on now is that if this cold spell lands it will be extremely long in nature. The current trend seems to be that yes it will begin as an easterly, something many of those in this region would deride as not of much interest. However we know that if cold embeds itself, the likelihood of cold continuing to deepen is high, and I doubt it's escaped many people's notice that Europe is completely and utterly in the freezer at the moment. When our wind flow is coming from the east it will be tapping into that pool; which will provide some quite serious cold weather and crucially intense snow showers, we know that the more prolonged and intense snow is the more likely it is to avoid being killed by the peninnes; so showers in the North Sea could actually be intense enough to make it across here. This is before we discuss the potential low or the fact that if we're to switch to a North Westerly, we could also be tapping into an extreme cold pool.
Right out to the end of the current GFS 6z we're still in the freezer with potential day time maximum's below freezing; although equally of course it could be just above freezing. I'm always one for get the cold in first, and of course the longer that cold sticks around - and there's long term models such as the EC46 hinting that could be into February the higher the likelihood that we get disruptive snowfall; either in the form of streamers that come from the East but are intense enough; given the severe cold over Eastern Europe to hit us on this side of the penines or through showers and frontal systems from the west surviving over a cold pool established between us and Ireland - in the right circumstances; although unlikely we could see a westward frontal system come from the Atlantic provide moderate snow to Ireland, intensify in the Irish sea and then provide us with heavy snowfall. These are of course possibilities, but there possibilities that only really exist in the current scenario we have where there's the potential for proper cold - potentially dry to begin with yes - to bed in over the next 10-15 days; and where both Europe and the area to our North West are very cold too.
Somewhat a fantasy, and somewhat unlikely but the potential for what would be a historically significant cold spell. I'm aware that much of this is based on things that could happen rather than things that the models actually show happening. However if we move to what the models actually show happening we're looking at - if the day time minimum temperatures come off 3-4 ice days in a row across the North West between next Tuesday and Friday. That would be a significantly cold spell although perhaps not historically significant.
People in this thread are welcome to and would probably be quite justified in writing me off as a fantasist (and if you're staring out your window at sleet, you are indeed even more justified in thinking me barmy) but these sort of scenarios rarely look remotely possible and at the moment they actually do, surely I'm allowed to wish and will them and yes, believe in them? But if we take today many people myself included we're forecast only sleet, and here I am staring at snow. It shows that we're already in a colder than predicted period and secondly that for all the forecasting and fantasising it doesn't mean anything until T+0
For me "the holy grail" I spoke of early is that potent Easterly flow followed by a Westerly/North Westerly bumping into that cold spell and providing seriously insane snow depths to our region by the end of it. And the first step, the potent Easterly, given how much Europe is currently in the freezer has already begun to set up for the next few days, with Tuesday showing most potential; but predicting snow four days out is a nonsense, it could arrive as early as Monday, possibly as late as first. Cold in first as always.
Obviously, we could equally be sat here sun-bathing next week if it all goes tits up. But I think we're getting further and further away from that risk.
Excellent post and an interesting read.
As much as I would love to see that happen I would put it in the chances of <5%
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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:
I've been on these forums since 2010 (I lived on the other side of the pennines though), there has been nothing of this magnitude in this close proximity since then. I may be ramping a little bit but can you blame me at that prospect, however I genuinely believe we're on the edge of something historically significant. Others are welcome to be more cautious and less optimistic - and yes my ramping is tempered by the realisation that a few more minor cold spells have been this close and died off, and I'll eat humble pie and suffer deserved ridicule if I'm wrong but that's what the output appears to show me.
Back to the hear and now, huge snowflakes as if someones standing in the clouds ripping feather pillowcases up, making vague attempts to stick but still melting away on the main.
Interesting to hear and I hope you right, I would be genuinly interested to find out what you see that could be 'historically significant.'
Genuinely interested and not looking for an argument....
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48 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
10 minute light snow flurry is far better than most of the country have done so far this winter. We're standing on the edge of the holy grail here and things can only get colder from now on. Whatever happens today, it's time to get excited about next weeks potential. There's not a chance of this being robbed from here on, it's simply too late.
I have been active on net weather forums since 2003 I would advise some caution here - comments such as 'standing on the edge of the holy grail' , 'things can only get colder' and 'no chance of getting robbed from here' are extremely naive.
I am not trying to belittle you but the amount of let-downs there have been over the years is border line inconceivable - the north west of England is not set to fair to well from this forthcoming cold spell - sorry.
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Light rain now.
Every year is the same, you could not make it up.
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Not expecting much more here today bar the 10 minute light snow shower earlier....so depressing.
Will then spend the rest of the winter watching the east get battered.
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A light snow shower that lasted 10 minutes.
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Light snow falling now.
Not expecting anything significant here
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1 hour ago, JeffC said:
Go on then whereabouts in the Lake District?
Ambleside (area) low level.
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Where in the Lake District are you - I think you said Ambleside? Were you away all last winter then, because Ambleside saw the same snowfalls as Windermere, and we had a few, one on the 29 December for example, also one a year ago today on 17 January.
The central Lake District is far from a snow no zone, I don't understand your dispondency..
Next week could bring some significant snowfall to the Lake District - nothing marginal about it.
A couple of falls last year which gave 1-2 cm so nothing major. The Lake District at lower levels is awful for snow I have lived here long enough.
Missing out on the only major fall of the winter and then missing out on the south-west snowstorm was unimaginable.
All this talk of an easterly coming up does not benefit our region AT ALL.
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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:
I've told you a million times not to exaggerate.
(In all seriousness nowhere in the UK has ever seen 6ft of lying snow).
Haha, sorry should have been 2 feet lol!
Typo.
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37 minutes ago, JeffC said:
So do I, wet old things aren't they, Lakes?
Most certainly!
Last winter I left Cumbria for north Devon - that night my location received its most significant snowfall of the winter. If that was not bad enough the part of north Devon I was in was in an unexplained 5 mile radius in Barnstaple Bay that received no snow at all during the major snowstorm that hit the south west last winter. Everywhere to the north, south, east and west had 2 feet of snow.
It absolutely knocked me for six and I realised that wherever I am, major snow will never come - it literally felt as though this was fate - deliberate almost, the depression was unexplainable. I am expecting nothing from this upcoming snow spell.
North West Regional Discussion 30 Jan 2019 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Getting that inherent 'end of winter feeling now' - I think the three meagre snowfalls of the last 2 weeks will be all I will see for this area at least this winter.
Absolutely nothing in the near range in prospects either.
Not a great winter for me, but not snowless like 13/14, 14/15, 15/16, 16/17 } 4 consecutive years where I saw no snowfall albeit I was living in a different location each time.