[Testimony on Climate Change to the US Supreme Court]

Hi Flash, and welcome to the boards. I'm going to try and squeeze in a reply before my internet connection conks out, which it has been doing a lot the past few days

You say "Ask any marine biologist about the effect of a one degree rise on plankton distribution or on corals, or in fact the whole marine ecosystem", but a one degree rise in atmospheric temperature does not equate to a one degree rise in sea temperature, and since the 20th century showed approximately a 0.6 degree rise in atmospheric temperature then the plankton, I think, are safe (for now).

Interestingly one of the main effects of climate change in corals has been to make them lose their colouration. The corals are still, in many places, apparently quite healthy, but have lost their colour. Perhaps their colouration is not a vital aspect of their survival but merely a side-effect of particular conditions. (I may have a look into this at some point.)

As for Amazonian rainfall, the issue of precipitation is a complicated one. I still read articles talking about GW causing the deserts to spread, particularly the Sahara, but the evidence doesn't bear this out. The Sahara is actually shrinking, and it is shrinking most noticably in the Southern regions.

The polar bear population figures show that most groups are actually increasing in number at present (not massively, but not dying out either), so I wouldn't count them in the endangered species list yet.

"No Regrets" basically takes the stance that we should be looking at putting money into research and technologies that will have long-term benefits, rather than throwing far more money into a project that has little gain (either long term or short term) as a knee-jerk reaction. If we end up throwing enough money at Kyoto and similar treaties, we could find ourselves in a situation where we simply don't have the resources to advance ourselves as a culture. The No Regrets concept is cautious, I grant you, but the limited understanding of climate that we have is not enough to allow us to throw caution to the wind.

Hi Cap'n Bobski - thanks for the welcome - One less 'lurker'!

I feel more on home ground with the ecological effects of any possible clmatic change than I am with the nuts 'n' bolts of the mechanisms of the change, and my point was that the assertion that warming would be 'a good thing' for diversity is way off.

eg plankton changes in the N Sea. These species are generally v temperature sensitive, and changes to the species distribution of both phyto- and zooplankton can - and probably are - having large scale deleterious effects on many larger species. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3879841.stm

While some species of animals and plants are generalists than can adapt to a range of environmental conditions, most - to one degree or another - depend on a relatively stable ecological environment in which to operate. Relatively rapid climate changes affecting direct survival, availability of their food sources, vegetation types, rainfall or interactions with other species can have dramatic effects. Historical changes to these variables could often be adapted to by gradual movement in populations, but the rapidity of the current changes and the exacerbating affects of already fragmented habitats caused by human activities has reduced this species survival mechanism.

re the Polar Bear - IUCN has just published its latest research into this species which finds that 1/4 of the populations are in serious decline, up from around 5% of the populations in 2001. (They have yet to update their website with the population tables, but the results can be gathered from the main report - 15th Dec - http://pbsg.npolar.no/)

You mentioned the phenomenon of coral 'bleaching' where the colours disappear, and often (but as you said, not always) lead to death of the coral. This is caused by the algae which live symbiotically inside the coral dying. This can be a temporary feature, in which case, the coral recovers as algae populations reestablish themselves. The amount of coral reefs dying totally has increased vastly over the last 3 decades, with temperature stress seeming to have a major role to play. http://www.marinebiology.org/coralbleaching.htm

I know this aspect of climate change is slightly off topic, BUT this is something that MUST be borne in mind when discussing this issue, and claims of a very benign effect of increased temperatures are way off beam. For some species, yes, populations will boom. For the majority, it is just one more, very big, human induced straw for the proverbial camels' back to bear.

[Wintry Ppn - w/c 11th December]

Following the torrential rain of the last hour, just noticed heavy sleet / snow outside. Funny thing was, I was on the BBC weather site at the time... http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/ :blink:

Edinburgh - city centre

[Testimony on Climate Change to the US Supreme Court]

Re point 1 - I was under the impression that the 17,000 scientists thing was effectively a petition, not a survey - a "read this and sign at the bottom if you agree" kind of thing. The wording may have been "misleading" (as I have read elsewhere) with regards to how the petition was to be used, but surely the fact that anyone signed shows some degree of dissent in the ranks. Or are you saying that the petition was never even circulated, and that the 17,000 names were put on without the consent of the scientists in question (or are the names all made up too?).

On to point 3 (I'll return to point 2 at a later date), why do the GCMs show the same, broad warming for the future? Perhaps because one of the assumptions is that the climate will continue to warm? Or that the data taken as input is faulty? Or the models themselves are missing something? I'm not saying that this is the case necessarily, but there are plausible reasons for the GCMs throwing up the same things. I don't know enough about climate models to be able to pinpoint specific inaccuracies in them, I confess - a point for future research, me thinks.

Point 4 - this is more of a political/media thing to my mind, but the general viewpoint among politicians and journalists does seem to be "Climate Change is happening because the IPCC says it is". If the IPCC haven't actually proven anything then it is wrong for the politicians and journalists to act as though they have.

Point 5 - Dependent on where you live? In what respect? Granted it might (possibly) be impractical or inconvenient to live in coastal regions, but the "modest amount" of GW they are referring to is the amount that would make vegetation more lush and more widespread, which has legitimate positive knock-on effects for the Earth's whole ecosystem. As the degree of future warming is unknown, it is not irrelevant to consider the positive effects of modest temperature increase.

Point 6 -

What is the basis for this statement? How much of an impact is, say, 10 years going to have? In 10 years you would expect climate science to have come on in leaps and bounds, making any conclusions more accurate and reliable. How much of a difference will 10 years make considering that China, and others, won't agree to Kyoto anyway? How much of a difference will 10 years make, especially if the "No Regrets" strategy is implemented post haste?

More later :unsure:

C-Bob

In point 4 - "..legitimate positive knock-on effects for the Earth's whole ecosystem?"

Pull the other one Bobski! ?Ask any marine biologist about the effect of a one degree rise on plankton distribution or on corals, or in fact the whole marine ecosystem. Find out about the likely effects on the Amazon basin rainfall, and subsequently the whole rainforest, or about any one of a myriad of downsides to GW for global ecosystems. We have been so hung up about whether WE could cope with any relatively rapid change in global climate, that we often forget about the catastrophe it could cause to many other species of animals and plants. From polar bears to corals - it's far from being a "positive" for them. Those who talk about "no regrets" are blowing smoke from a place where they shouldn't!!