[UK Monthly Weather Forecast - netweather.tv]

<div style="font-weight:bold;text-size:12pt;">UK monthly weather forecast updated 1/1/09

<br/>Cool, unsettled and quite sunny</div><br/>

Click here for the full forecast

How can it be wet, yet sunny? This implies that virtually all the rain/snow will fall at night, while the days will be sunny! My own opinion, for what it's worth, is for a dry, & dull month, with temps gradually recovering from the presently abnormal levels, to something about average by month's end, eg 7C.

I'm hoping that 2009 will be a much drier, sunnier, & warmer year for Britain, then any we have seen so far this century, which has given us such rubbish so far.

At least, the g/w conspirators have been made to look extremely foolish, and about time too

Happy New year from Derek. XXX

[The 13th of June enigma]

Even more amazingly

The 16th of April has recorded a higher a maximum than the 13th of June.

16th April 1949: 29.4C

Also the 6th of October has recorded a higher maximum than the 13th of June

6th October 1921: 28.9C

Actually, I think your comment is a bit unfair! 1949 was one of the finest spring/summers of the century, certainly in the top 5. The other 4 were: 1947, 1959, 1975, & 1976.

I agree it is surprising that 13/6/ has never exceeded 30C. in the UK, but the second week in June is seldom warm I find. June used to boast the highest temps of the summer quite frequently up until about 1976, but these days the highest temps come much later on.

Certainly safe for this year! My prediction for the rest of the month is: it will gradually warm up again, as winds bend back to west, then south-west, with the Azores high re-asserting itself. Last week in June should be very nice indeed, with temps 25C+ over most of England & Wales That's my prediction anyway, lol.

[Summer Discussion!]

Firstly, i will start by saying that i created this thread to discuss the upcoming summer prospects, so don't feel pressured to making a forecast because at this early stage, it would most likely be wrong, this is to discuss the variables ect...

That aside, i am personally a supporter of teleconnections, and as such, my first post in this thread will discuss this...

IMO, there are three main variables (leading modes), which make up a large percentage of a succesful forecast, these being..

1) ENSO state

2) QBO state

3) AO state

It is my personally belief that these three teleconnections are invariably linked.

In regards to the ENSO state, we are currently in moderate La Nina conditions. La Nina is correlated to lower than average angular mommentum (GLAAM), which essentially means that when La Nina conditions are present, there is typically a slow moving weather pattern. As well as the actual state of La Nina, it is my belief that whether La Nina is weakening or strengthening is also important, because La Nina is currently weakening, this teleconnects to a progressively less slow moving pattern, but a anticyclonic pattern, which in summer is correlated to above average temperatures.

In regards to the QBO state, during March, the QBO switched modes, and is now in a westerly mode, which is correlated to lower than average pressure in the Tropics, and mid-lattitude High pressure belts as a response, as well as stronger statospheric winds around the pole (stronger Polar Vortex), it is my belief that with a strengthening westerly QBO during the summer, this will correlate to a higher chance of mid-lattitude blocking.

In regards to the AO state, it is essentially a measure of the temperature in the statosphere at high lattitudes, and we are currently seeing a stratospheric cooling event, which is correlated to lower than average pressure over the poles (stronger Polar Vortex), the AO is quite strongly correlated to the NAO, meaning that when the AO is positive, the Azores High and Icelandic Lows are stronger, whereas it is visa versa during a neagative AO.

Tying these teleconnections together, it is my belief that the UK will see higher than average temperatures, and lower than average rainfall this summer. In regards to the first half of this summer, i expect a higher incidence of northerlies/easterlies than average, though i also expect the first half of summer to be the driest relative to average, to my knowledge, high pressure to the north of the British Isles would also lead to above average sunshine. In regards to the second half of sunshine, i expect this to feature a more orginised Polar Vortex, however with a signal for continued anticyclonicy, this should lead to higher pressure to the south east of the UK, with a greater amplitude of southerlies/westerlies relative to average, meaning that relative to average, i expect the second half of summer 2008 to be the hottest, though it is likely to be wetter and duller than the first half relative to average, however i do expect a continuation of below average rainfall and around average sunshine.

Very interesting! However,callme old-fashioned, but why cant we have " normal" summers like 1975,76etc.? These were dry,sunny,& warm throughout,especially 1975. Everybody would benefit, and the ground would have a chance to dry out a bit.Surely with G/W every summer should be dry,warm & sunny.......but sadly it seems to be the reverse of that What do you think!?

Regards, Derek.

[Reservoir Watch]

A couple of years ago a dry winter was followed by a dry summer and the media was flocking to our reservoirs to show how desperately low they were. There was general talk of ddom and gloom as the watertable was said to be at record lows and experts were pointing out that it would take years of sustained above average rainfall for the reservoirs to recover. There was even serious discussion on the possibility of bring water to the parched south of the country from those places in the North where rain was still abundant.

So where's all the media interest and concern now?

And what levels are the reservoirs at these days? Do we still need those years of sustained above average rainfall? Or are they pretty much up to the mark right now?

I'm thinking they must be pretty close to being full if not already there with all the rain we've had over the past seven or eight months (though not every month it's fair to say).

I think the truth is that we live in an age where we overreact to everything....and with all the lectures about climate change, a few hot days of sunshine seems to bring out the doom and gloom merchants more easily than ever. But I'm disapoointed in some respects that the spotlight has gone away from the threat of drought at the moment. It will come back as sure as day follows night and once again we will all be under tremendous pressure to conserve our water supplies and switch to a meter system (the latter of which I regard as a price increase by stealth).

However there should be a spotlight on the issue right now....and that spotlight should be focused on what the water companies are doing to harvest any water that's currently surplus to requirements. Those companies that have the right to enforce bans on the way we use their "product" in certain situations, ought to have duty imposed to ensure that all precaution that alleviate such a necessity are undertaken.

Right now there seems to be no pressure on them regarding leaking pipes and harvesting water effectively. But this is precisely the time when that pressure is most needed.

Drought!!! There will NEVER be drought in England again, of that I can assure you :o Personally, I find it obscene that we should have to live in a swamp all year round with never a break from the incessant rain. I'm old enough to remember more normal years, around 1990, when rainfall was far lower than today, yet we all managed perfectly well. Sunshine amounts were much higher then, & ppl's health was much better, no stinking Norovirus every year as at present, cos of the never ending rain & lack of sun. 1975 & 76 up till 10/9/76, were almost idyllic, fine, sunny, dry for months on end, far better than the onions we have to put up with today. The danger is, not that our reservoirs will ever run out, but will ppl literally be flooded out of living where they are, as our rainfall gets wetter & wetter with every passing year? :o

[Have we actually Forgotten what cold is]

Noticed the cold spell thread was going rather well when I got back this morning and I thought well it's ended. Yet people think it's cold. Got to admit myself I thought today was cold certainly compared to some days last Jan. Mainly the reason why I thought was cold was the strong breeze but I then realised I was being rather soft "nesh" as we would say round here. Got home and Max temp was 1C to 1.5C above what we normally get for Jasn and the evening temp going to likewise unless we lose the wind. I spent part of the walk looking for the first signs of spring and they were there. Tree buds well swollen up and green but further back than last year no doubt due to mid December.

Overall I think we've forgotten what cold is. Dec inversion was impressive but comp;aired to some DEcs in the past it was a heatwave.

One of the problems is that people have got used to having temps in the house between 70F and 80F when you used to be lucky to get much above 60. So when they step outside into a mild Jan morning at 7C they do a Carol Kirkwood and say it's freezing.

Talking the in the Pub news year day about 79 when we had the Windows frozen up outside and in and Snow Blowing through the secondary glazing. Every House had tons of Icicles hanging of them as did street lights drainpipes now you're lucky if you see one. Last time there was a good display probably was 87. Sadly it looks like we're all getting soft and doubt possibly keep getting softer until the fuel runs out.

Sorry, but I have to disagree with you! Last Dec( just gone), was the coldest over most of England & Wales since 1981. Here in Manchester, there were 12 days of constantly below normal temps, up to the 22nd. Hardly normal, & by the way, the muppet on here said Dec. would be dry, sunny & mild on his monthly f/cast, Chris, somebody or other....... It wasnt dry, 5" + of rain in Manchester, sunshine was at a premium only about 50 hours, & only 1 day reached double figures & that was only a miserable 10C. If our climate was really getting milder than every day would see temps of 7C+, with at least 10 days into double figures. It's my opinion that our wretched climate is getting worse & worse.....ie. more rain, wind & dullness every year.

What would be wrong with a decent high over Biscay, English Channel & N.France of 1050+ millibars lasting for 3 months or so. Some people might not like it, but the death rate for hypothermia would be neglible, & I bet the NHS would be in heaven. As it is, we have so many viruses in winter, cos it NEVER stops raining, which makes our atmosphere extremely unhealthy. |As for our summers, forget it. 2007 was a travesty, & this year will be even worse. It will only be a matter of time before we have years where it rains every day :wacko: Nowhere else in the world has to put up with this.....

[Your Predictions : Highest UK temperature during this Winter]

16C. Incidentally, how on earth do u post a new message on here!!! Anyone know please :lol:

[What’s the worst storm you have experienced living in the UK?]

Worst storm for sheer destruction is 1987 followed by 1989 in the UK.

Callie <_<

Sorry, but you will find the intense storm of 25th. Jan, 1990, considerably worse. 16/10/87, killed around 17 ppl, but the 1990 storm killed 46, as it was spread over a far wider area, all of England & Wales, + S. Scotland were affected. The wind blew for longer & more sustained speed than '87, & lasted for hours. I was living in London at time, & it lasted from around 10Am-6Pm, with the peak gusts around 4Pm, of 70-80mph. Enormous damage was done, yet it was bright & sunny throughout! Wind direction was W. veering N.W. during a/n, as an intense depression moved rapidly east over the Scots borders & out into the North Sea. 1989 storm was feeble by comparison & only affected the far west of Wales & Ireland I'm not expecting any big storms this winter, by the way, lol.

[White Christmas]

Ive seen odds of 6/1 on for a white christmas and thats nationally!

what do you think the chances are?

About 100/1. I do not think England will ever see a white Christmas again, by that I mean either snow falling & settling, or lying snow. A shame, I know, especially for the kids, but that is the way it is. My own guess is it will be dry, cloudy & mild with an anticyclone across Biscay & N. France with temps averaging 10C. In fact, I believe the whole winter will be dry, cloudy & mild, similiar to 1988/9, i.e. a half decent winter

[METO UK Further Outlook]

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Sep 2007 to Sunday 7 Oct 2007:

Eastern England is likely to see some showers, locally heavy, to end the week, with most other places fine and dry with sunny spells. Overnight mist and fog patches are likely and it will be rather cold generally, so some ground frosts are expected inland. Those showers should ease away from eastern parts by Sunday leaving fine weather for most into next week with temperatures recovering to around normal. However, unsettled conditions with spells of rain are likely to spread northeastwards across more western areas next Monday or Tuesday. Thereafter there is plenty of uncertainty over the forecast but there is a risk of fairly unsettled conditions spreading across most other parts during the second part of next week, although temperatures should be around or just above normal.

Updated: 1305 on Sun 23 Sep 2007

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

Are you crazy!!! What fog & what sun. As for temps. being above average, you're having a laugh. You're f/cast is total rubbish, nothing like reality. It's actually dull, dry, chilly & breezy with temps abnormally cold for time of year. It will improve (can't physically get worse), but please take a little more care & try looking out the window for once......it really does help.

[Met Office Winter Forecast]

Just so you all know (and i'm sure many do already), the met office will be releasing their winter forecast at approx 10am tomorrow. will be interesting reading hopefully!

No doubt there will be dire warnings of a terrible winter, which they manage to say every year, yet never have the guts to apologise when somehow or other......surprise, surprise they get it completely & utterly wrong.

Personally, I think it will be dry, mild but cloudy with very light winds in the main, something akin to 1988/9. i.e. a decent winter or as near decent as you can get in this country All this never ending rain & cold is what kills so many folk here, so it would be nice for Nature to behave itself for once & give us a " normal" winter. Here's hoping!!!

[Sunday 16th September 2007]

Mild (13.8º), sunny, raining and blowing a force 7 gale.

How can it be sunny & raining at same time!!!

Anyway, just thought I'd add my comments, lol. Here, in Manchester, it was fine till around 2PM, nice & bright with some sun, but v. windy ( Force 6- , easily windiest day since March here. Became cloudy, stayed dry till 5PM, then heavy driving rain & v. dark for approx. 45 mins. as cold front moved rapidly overhead. Sky breaking nicely now, & wind has dropped rapidly (only Force 3) I dont like strong winds at this time of year! Nice when the front clears rapidly like this; this week shouldbe OK, with improving weather yet again as week goes on...........still think Sept. will be a decent month.

[The ' I NEED TO SCREAM' thread.]

Climate change isn't just about temperature.

Global Warming doesn't mean everywhere getting warmer, nor every year being warmer than the one before.

Natural variation may on occasion over-ride any anthropogenic effects. Likewise anthropogenic effects may amplify natural warming.

If the next 2 decades see a downturn in global temperature due to reduced solar activity, for example, it doesn't mean that the underlying trend isn't still one of global warming, nor does it mean that other effects of human activity won't cause changes in rainfall distribution or cloud cover.

Many of the things being suggested to reduce carbon emissions will likely have no impact whatsoever on climate change. But they will save you and the country money in the long term, improve your quality of life, and reduce our reliance on other countries for our energy needs.

The 'AGW scare' if that's what it turns out to be, will also have prompted increased technological development and thus likewise benefit the human race in the long term.

The people most likely to be affected by climate change are those currently least able to act to prevent it - and some current western policies and preferences are actively encouraging such people to make their own situation worse and condemn their children to misery.

The single biggest, and easiest, thing that can be done to reduce carbon emissions and reduce all impacts of climate change - not just 'global warming' - is to cease all rainforest burning. Paying tropical countries to replant the forests instead of burning them is also the cheapest short term option for western countries. We could pay for it with all the money we save by switching unnecessary lights off at night - a policy which will also enable your children to see the stars

If G/W doesnt mean everywhere is getting warmer, then why call it global warming :blink: really, none of you ppl know what you're talking about. On here, the f/cast last Thurs (6/9), said the anticyclone to the west of Britain would move steadily east, meaning temps would go up, sun would be plentiful & by early next week (10/9) temps would be 27-29C in south, & 25C in North. very nice you might think, only he got it completely I have a problem about face! The wretched high is still to the west of Ireland, & it's pulling in increasingly cooler, cloudier air, with the result that nowhere in England will exceed 20C on Mon, & most places will only be about 17-18C....a far cry from what was forecast.

My point is: you cant even get a simple thing like a quiet anticyclonic spell anywhere near correct for only a few days ahead, so how the hell can u forecast months/years in advance. Global warming doesnt exist, full stop. if it did, our climate would be far better than it is now. eg. more sun, warmth, & drier, instead of this rubbish we in England have to suffer every year & eachg year sees a deteoriation in climate too. The climate in the 1970's was far superior in every way to this 21st. cent travesty of a climate. see if u can pick the bones out of this.........

[Best Weather in the World]

Not sure if this has been done before and how many replies this will get in this particular forum however I thought I would see what members would wish for if they could import the climate from any other part of the world to here.

Now, if I have my sensible head on, I would surely say the climate of the UK (as it stands today). It is changeable and unpredictable, which makes it interesting, it is benign with pleasant but bearable summer peaks with winter conditions that rarely disrupt for longer than short periods of time. The weather is rarely of a life threatening nature in this country and our long term economic prosperity owes much to our kind temperate climate that has allowed industry and agriculture to thrive for many generations.

Taking the sensible hat off for a moment however, for myself and many on here I suspect, the UK climate is slightly boring - "I'd like more thunderstorms, tornados, hurricanes, snow, cold, hot etc" depending on what my personal preferences are.

I think the best climate I can think of would be somewhere near Virginia or North Carolina, near the coast (but not on the beach).

The reasons being for this is that the temperature is never really really extreme but can get cold of very cold in winter and hot in summer. There is lots of opportunities for snow in the winter. Spring and early summer are generally very nice. High and late summer into early Autumn does get humid however powerful storms and occasional hurricane activity are the payoff against this.

An honourable mention also goes to the Korean Peninsular which has generally warm to hot temps for 9 months of the year and a winter from Siberia which can be bitter. Tropical cyclone activity occurs in summer and autumn and snow frequently falls on Christmas Day. The only thing that stopped me picking this as my preferred choice was that it is too wet in summer and too dry in winter.

Any other suggestions are most welcome

Well, I'm afraid I cant agree with you on that score at all Surely, our climate is far too wet & stormy for anyone with even a modicum of interlligence to seriously suggest that the British climate is anything than 2 sandwiches short of a picnic. Personally, I find the Canaries have an excellent climate, nice & warm/dry all year round with low rainfall & humidity....very healthy! Furthur afield, I would suggest the Chilean desert, virtually unbroken sun & heat all year round, extremely healthy, compared to Britain.

As we have had the wettest summer EVER with ppl killed, I would have thought that our climate was anything, but benign

[September CET!]

Autumn offically starts in September, so the question is, will we see some seasonal weather or will the mildness of the past few Septembers continue????

Having reveiwed my data, my preliminary prediction for the September CET is 13.2C, 0.5C below average, however i may revise this estimate upwards or downward before the end of the month, however i do expect the range to be 12.4C-14.5C.

Well, I'm not sure what the CET will be, but bearing in mind this has been the WORST summer ever known for much of England & Wales, I would say that a fairly decent September looks to be in the offing: i.e. warmer, drier, & much sunnier than normal From exp. I have found that poor summers tend to be followed by much improved autumns 1978 being a case in point.

Incidentally, you dont say how wet Sept. will be. All the so called " experts" seem to think it will be wetter & cooler than normal, but why this should be I dont know......more a case of wishful thinking I think! Anyway, I predict a lovely autumn, the best since !978 if u can remember. It would be a small gesture from Nature after this appalling travesty of a summer I'll be int. to see what anyone else thinks.

[Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)]

Now, as you know I have given up on a true cold winter ever again being experienced in this country, and am currently anticipating my move to the colder climes of our near continent. But with a cool summer currently afflicting the country, I thought it best to re-examine the case for a cold winter in the British Isles in 2007/08.

First off, Bill Giles. It was reported in the middle of last winter that Bill Giles, one of the British Isles' most respected forecasters, was anticipating a year that would resemble a pattern like this/of this nature:

-A generally uninspiring winter 2006/07 with a couple of closing cold snaps - one of which occurred on time from memory, the other one I *think* was/may have been a miss,

-A cooler and wet summer - cooler and wetter than in recent times, and shock to the system of the British Isles given recent "global warming" summers such as 2003 and 2006.

I can't remember/don't know if he ever said anything for autumn. Well, I dismissed these predictions as hogwash, even though it was the great Bill Giles; my new "pessimistic" nature only anticipating my future move to Europe and not anymore "phantom" British winters like 2006/07 and the cringeworthy 2005/06. Well, here we are in mid-late summer 2007 - the cooler weather/summer having come off as predicted by Bill Giles (and I think someone else contributed to the forecast), so my interest in the prediction was peaked. But it was another forecast that really caught my 2imagination and brought this back to my attention.

First of all, what did Bill Giles say for winter 2007/08? He saw, in January 2007, winter 2007/08 as being cold, and coming as a real shock to the system given recent British "greenhouse" winters. This was reported on a well known weather forum by a journalist source close to Mr. Giles and generally "in the know". But now, having seen ECPC's latest output, I thought it time to seriously consider these claims once again.

I sat observing and reading ECPC's longer range output, which as you know I follow throughout the course of the year - albeit less in the winter and at the moment with my current move. But I noticed something... that was both "interesting" and "contrasting".

The ECPC - which is of course an arm of the NOAA which has its own current and uninspiring "chopping and changing" winter forecast, as we all know - longer range had thoughts that were certainly very consistent with those of Britain's Mr. Giles. So, I sat there, and checked the longer range "dynamic":

Uninspiring again I know, but then I decided to sit and check the perhaps more accurate new "shorter range", month-by-month model. I looked and opened the pages one by one, to see a correctly forecast cooler and wetter summer:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo1.png

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo2.png

warming up again in the autumn - still no surprise to me as again I am used to this and I am soon moving:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo3.png

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo4.png

(a *slightly* cooler October though (once again!) from the west indicating a north-westerly dominated wild and wet month (or at least potentially)). And then came this monster - and I was blown off my chair!:

and then I remembered Bill Giles forecast. And the cool summer. And how correct this was. And put two and two together to realise and think that *maybe*, just *maybe*... there is something more to this than meets the eye. :o

Bill Giles and the ECPC have both forecasted poor summers. The Met Office forecasted an uncertain but still likely above average one, IMMSMC. And now both the former are forecasting at least a cold start of winter. Or maybe I'm just clutching at straws for one final time as we do every year.

Anyhow, if I am wrong about Mr. Giles or the Experimental Climate Prediction Center, then either of these can feel free to prompt and correct me on my observations. Thank you.

As we are enduring the WORST summer everknown in England & Wales, I thought I might like to put the record straight. The thought of a severe winter is nothing more than wishful thinking by misguided people. I firmly believethat we willhave adry& mild winter: similiar to 88/89,but better :o And why not, it would be about time. Incidentally, if the f/cast by Mr. Giles is anywhere near correct, then surely the idea of Britain's weather getting warmer,must be the greatest modern myth of all time! The climate cannot behave like scum all the time,so sooner or later it will improve......it cannot do anything otherwise.

[when will the rain stop?]

Just one from the 20th century there. Strange.

[ Strange that the figures should only be given less than half way thru Jul!!! It is already the wettest 3 month period EVER known for England- proof indeed that the climate in this country is in terminal decline. The fact is the climate will never improve to the levels seen during the middle period of the 20th. cent. when warm, dry, sunny summers, & indeed, other seasons were the norm. By 2025 most of England will be uninhabitable, due to vast areas of land being submerged. This is not difficult to foresee, indeed one can accurately f/cast the climate for at least 100 years ahead.

Also, the myth that our climate is becoming ever warmer has been totally exploded this year, with average temps for England & Wales, way below the norm one would expect. Proof indeed, that global warming is just a fairy tale. Sorry to be so downbeat, but there it is. By the end of the year, you will be thanking me.

[Wettest 12 Months on record?]

As the run of unsettled weather continues, the question is, will the 12 months from 1st August 2006 to 31st July 2007 be the wettest 12 month period ever recorded in the UK? More specifically I feel that this may be the case for England.

We have experienced a number of really wet months over the past year, such as October, November, December, January, May, June and July. Will this soaking set a new record for the 12 month period?

Undoubtedly. But what is the interesting question is: why is the climate degenerating so rapidly over England? What about these so-called "experts", who keep on saying Britain's climate is getting warmer,drier,& sunnier each year? Yet it's exactly the reverse: we have more cloud, rain, & lower temps every year, & it's steadily getting worse. Anyone old enough to remember lovely years like 1975/76, will knopw how far the climate has deteoriated in the last 30 years.

Personally, I think we will NEVER experience a normal summer,or even year again, it will always be wet from now on, until eventually most of England sinks beneath the onslaught, with huge loss of life by around 2025. Nowhere else in the world has such consistently bad climate as England now, & the Gov't needs to address this & fast, otherwise there is no future.