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johnhk

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Posts posted by johnhk

  1. This is interesting,all the observator (Chinese Meteorological Office,Honh Kong Observatory,Central Weather Bureau,Japanese Meteorological Agency and even Korean Meteorological Agency) forecast that it will tend to move to Kaoshung rather than move poleward.

    JTWC forecast is quite interesting, hope JTWC will not make the same error like forecasting Typhoon CHANCHU again.. :blink: :lol:

    Let me also post HKO's forecast

    nwp_0617.png

  2. lol, I forgotten the basic concept of pressure for me asking this stupid question. Anyway, I learn more than I learnt from school textbook.

    Thanks for answering anyway, I would not using those subjective words to describe the weather next time, thanks for reminding.

    Hong Kong will still affect by those though of low pressure....

    Thanks anyway.

    John...(noob)

  3. I really wanna ask... It is a MUST that low pressure will bring worse weather but HIGH pressure always bring fine weather to that place??

    Today, 2/6/2006...there is a though of LOW PRESSURE affecting Hong Kong....according to the Weather Chart,

    pressure in Hong Kong is about 1008mb which giving Hong Kong worse weather.....rain and thunderstorms for about

    4-6hours which are quite heavy.

    Weather Chart from Hong Kong Observatory

    wxcht05.gif

    Isohyet Chart from HKO

    rfmap1230e.png

    Thanks for answering

    John :D

  4. Hey! I just see something...it's called "Prognostic Reasoning" what is that thing means?

    that -Prognostic Reasoning information

    WDPN31 PGTW 090300

    MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 02//

    RMKS/

    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

    2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 090000Z TO 140000Z MAY 2006.

    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST-

    NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS

    OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

    IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO

    SPIRAL AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WARNING POSITION

    IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

    IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE

    INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.

    B. TS 02W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY

    OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TS 02W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-

    WESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH AND A

    BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE

    DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, JGSM, AVN, WBAR, AND AFWA MM5

    ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON

    A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.

    C. TS 02W WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

    THROUGH TAU 72 AND WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.

    D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE

    SIZED SYSTEM.

    E. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF

    A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE AFTER TAU 72 AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN

    TO TRACK MORE TO THE WEST TOWARD CENTRAL LUZON THROUGH TAU 120.

    THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER

    TAU 72 DUE TO DISRUPTED INFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AS THE SYSTEM

    TRACKS CLOSER TO THE PHILIPPINES.

    3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

    NNNN

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