ScandiHigh
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Posts posted by ScandiHigh
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Question to the experts:
Pockets of -10 Upper air starting to appear in the Arctic in the coming weekend (eg. East Siberian coast). Below zero surface temperatures are forecasted(GFS). Can we hope for an end to the rapid decline in ice cover and eventually an increase?
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I don't like it....mild wet winter beckons
BFTP
Why, I thought this setup favoured a negative NAO?
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Early indications for Winter 2007/8 (December, January and February)
Temperature
Last winter was exceptionally warm over much of Europe and the second warmest on record for the UK. The signal from the statistical method suggests winter 2007/8 is likely to be less mild for Europe as a whole than 2006/7. For western Europe, including the UK, indications favour temperatures less mild than last year, but still above the 1971-2000 normal.
Rainfall
Above-normal precipitation was experienced over the UK last winter with 130% of the long-term UK average. Early indications suggest that Winter 2007/8 is likely to be closer to normal.
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Very disappointing IMO.
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Massive change for the worst in the last week.
We now have the largest negative artic ice anomaly ever recorded. Current it's off the chart.
Ice decline also appears to be in free fall, although it has to stop at some point.
Last years record minimum now seems very likely to fall.
Very sad time
Yes, very concerning development the last couple of weeks. Perhaps some kind of comfort in the fact that there is still a bit more ice in the Barent Sea than last year. The Russian and Candian sectors, however, are significantly worse off than last year.
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Latest Arctic ice reports for the first week in May do show much more ice around Svalbard and into the Greenland Basin compared to this time last year. Early May 2006 there was a significant retreat of first year ice to the north of Svalbard. Kara Sea is presently showing a high concentration of Spring ice with the River Ob still ice bound. Arctic Basin still showing above the mean average. Lets hope this continues into the summer months. Will be watching developments closely.
C
This is very interesting indeed. It seems like the increased sea ice concentration has put an end (for now) to the record breaking warmth at Svalbard. In fact april this year, although above the 61-90 mean, was 9,4 C colder than last april. april this year was effectively the coldest month of the winter.
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History repeating itself? After a promising October, it seems like Svalbard is back to the "normal" of the last couple of years (which is certainly not normal):
http://met.no/observasjoner/svalbard/Svalb...havn/index.html
This is not good news for ice formation in the Barent Sea.
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The SSTs to the West of Svalbard is around 4 C and preventning the sea ice to penetrate further south:
http://met.no/images/image_000128_1161266490.png
Even along the north coast SSTs are way above freezing. Seems like we need more of those cold northerlies to cool down the barent ocean.
To the east, however, SSTs are much more favourable for sea ice formation (around 0 and in some places less than 0 C).
Further to this, this ECMWF map
http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/cat...33;latest!/
shows that the SSts to west of Svalbard are actually well below normal. (despite being 4-5 C)
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http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...om.region.6.jpg
Interesting the data looks more promising in comparison with last year, if only slightly, if i have read it wrong then don't shoot me down in flames, i'm still new to this :lol:
I think you are right. More ice than last year in the Barents sea. Last year must have been a record low, however.
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The SSTs to the West of Svalbard is around 4 C and preventning the sea ice to penetrate further south:
http://met.no/images/image_000128_1161266490.png
Even along the north coast SSTs are way above freezing. Seems like we need more of those cold northerlies to cool down the barent ocean.
To the east, however, SSTs are much more favourable for sea ice formation (around 0 and in some places less than 0 C).
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Still waiting for the latest reports from Svalbard regarding whether Polar ice edge has made any landfall yet. Should know tomorrow.
Carinth
Great report Carinthian.
Re my question last week, I think you were spot on when predicting landfall of sea ice at Svalbard norhtern coastline this week. According to the Cryosphere site it happened during the last five days.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/20060922.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/20060927.jpg
My impression is that the Norhtern Barent area is ahead of last year, especially to the Northeast of Svalbard, around Franz Josef Land:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/20050927.jpg
Regards
Scandi
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Some questions for the experts here:
1) Why is there still ice melt in the Arctic basin? (ref: Crysosphere today). I thought ice levels would start to pick up here by now. Some of the russian sectors have picked up recently, but not the arctic basin it seems.
2) By this time last year the Northern flank og Svalbard was locked in ice. Later in the season, however, the northern coast of Svalbard was ice-free. The question is, do you think Svalbard will be ice free this winter as well. My observation is that the northerlies the last couple of days have not moved the ice closer to Svalbard. I suspect the SST is to high for ice forming here?
3) A general question and perhaps difficult to answer is the link between NW Europe winter Temperature and arctic sea ice extent.
Finally, have a look at this map
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/19790116.png
It is amazing how much ice it was that winter. The question is will we ever see such extent (in our lifetime).
Thanks.
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This is also interesting:
Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service at the Met Office commented: "In July, we issued a first assessment of the winter. This was based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) technique and indicated a mild winter. However, from September, other forecast data becomes available, allowing us to make a further expert judgement on how the winter is likely to play out. It's interesting to note that the chances of a colder winter have increased slightly in light of recent information, with a focus on the late-winter period. We will track this possible trend and update the forecast in coming months as necessary."
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I think it is interesting that they have changed from mild to normal, and that they single out the late winter season with a signal for lower temperatures and increase in cold snaps!
The European precipiation map suggests that depressions may have a southerly track this winter, that is a good sign.
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Very good news for most of us!
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Forecast for Winter 2006/7
Temperature
Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than average.
For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps.
Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold snaps and snowfalls.
Precipitation
For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.
Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.
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14,7 for me please
ScandiHigh
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Was January 2005 similarly warm? According to the Weather Log, Oslo's mean temperature was a full 7.4C above the 61-90 mean in that month.
It seems to me that the warmest conditions in Oslo happen from two setups- either the south-westerly gale conveyor belt (as in February 1990) or high pressure over the S or SW of Britain, sending anticyclonic westerly winds over to Norway with air originating in the tropics.
Hi TWS
According to Met.no(The Norwegian MET office) January 2005 was 1,7 (6 C above the 61-90 mean:)
http://met.no/observasjoner/oslo/2005/januar/index.html
However, the first 18 days had a mean of 3,5 C, but a more anticyclonic pattern the last half prevented that kind of figures for the month as a whole.
You are right about warm conditons in Oslo in winter. Those conditions can often bring fohn to Southeast Norway, with temperatures of 10 C or more.
I think you will find a high correlation between winter temperature in Norway and Britain. We are in the same boat. The 88/89 ,89/90 and 04/05 winters were extremely mild winter in your location too? At the other end of the scale, I see often references to the january 87 episode in this forum. January 10th 87 has entered the record books in Oslo as well. Not for the lowest minima, but for lowest maxima ever recorded. Until that that day the lowest maxima ever recorded in a day was -18,5. On Jan 10th the max temp was -20,5 in Oslo. I have looked at the 850 HPA temps for that that day and it is beyond anything in the GFS archive. -25C air over Oslo!
Cold setups may bring -20C air over southern Norway, but this was -25! Will we ever(in our lifetimes) see that again?
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I'm still going for a very mild and stormy 89/90 winter.
This summer has been so 89 like to me (way above average except August) so I just have a gut feeling that we'll get a similar winter
I pray to God to not have a winter like that. In Oslo were i live february 1990 set a record for a winter month that I hope never will be beaten(even with GW):
A mean temperature of 3,4 C (7,4 above 61-90 mean). Forget frost and snow in Britain and even in most parts of Norway with that kind of winter.
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I have followed the temperature at the Svalbard island the last couple of years and there seems to be a remarkable warming going on. The last six months has seen a temperature at Svalbard airport of -4,8 C, which is a stunninng 8,1 above normal (61-90) (source; www.met.no). The most remarkable months are january with a
-2,7 C (+12,6) and april 0,0 C (+12,2). The april montly mean of 0,0 C was 4,3 C above the previos record, which, not supringsly was set last april. April 05 was 1,8 C above the record set before that. Until 2001 no higher april mean than -6,6 had been recorded at Svalbard airport (1912-). The record this year is a stunning 6,6 above that.
There has been a (permanently it seems) shift in the temperature at the island. And it is not only synoptics creating these high temperatures. March, which had a norhterly coming straight off the pole for most of the month, saw a mean temperature of -13,2 , still 2,5 above the normal. The same thing happend during the middle part of may when we had a "cold" setup with a greenland High. In this period (10-20) daily means could not get down to average temperatures.
http://met.no/observasjoner/svalbard/Svalb.../mai/index.html
I am afraid the global warming is kicking in. At this rate a 10 C warming at Svalbard-Spitzbergen seems a realistic prediction?
Any thoughts ?
On a personal note I can say that I am living in Oslo, Norway and I am fearing for the future of snowy, cold winters like we were used to in Norway until 1988. I share the preference for cold winters and lots of snow like many users of this forum.
Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The Norwegian Meteorological Institute(met.no) uses the WMO recommended reference periods, e.g. 1931-60, 1961-90, etc.
The Svalbard normal for May is indeed below 0, as others have said. People who follow the Svalbard temperatures will notice that a below average month is a rarity these days. September 2005 was the last below average month at the Airport.
More Svalbard observations:
http://retro.met.no/observasjoner/svalbard/index.html