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Posts posted by lookup

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

    in Regional

    Posted

    Sorry sherrie, I may have slightly over-reacted BUT and this goes for other less experienced model readers and any wind up merchants, the atmosphere around our island is very fluid in nature. The very fact that your forecast suggests rain at t+30 hours or whatever is neither here nor there. The computer models (think data here, many millions of 0s and 1s) predictions will always be susceptible to change from the moment the model runs. When this particular event is within <t+6 hours, you can put more credence in its forecast (think guesswork). That last sentence applies even more so when predicting snowfall because there are least five atmospheric dynamics that need to come together.

    Finally, based on your location, you will no doubt be aware, you have a higher chance of rainfall as opposed to snowfall, however I am certainly NOT ruling our such a scenario developing.

    Once again, I apologise for my assumed harshness of the post I made earlier. mega_shok.gif

    Convective Weather Discussion Uk

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just to clear up a bit of confusion that seems to be around.

    As per the suggestion of the convective forecasts, it seems that storms moving over from france are not routed in the boundary layer. They are elevated storms and the channel should have little or no effect on their development. They are developing in a plume of modest theta E values, assisted by marginal shear. MCS propagation vectors indicate that the storms would also be backbuilding, I don't know how relevent this is today. They will continue to effect southern parts through this evening and tonight. Whether atmospheric conditions continue to support their development remains to be seen as it is unclear how conducive conditions are further inland. If conditions inland are less favourable then showers will be the only concern.

    Hope that helps. :)

    Convective Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    im getting increasingly worried that nothings gonna happen:closedeyes:

    im getting increasingly worried that nothings gonna happen :(

    I have to say that I agree. Seen this before and it does look to be sliding off west. I do hope I am wrong. Thoughts anyone????

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Everyone.

    Big wet flakes falling very generously here in Newbury, Berkshire. Started in earnest at about 1pm and now we have approx. 1/2" covering on the roads in our street. Travel chaos will ensue soon, thankfully I'm home safe and sound.

    Temp 0c and dewpoint -0.4c, will it stay as snow?

    Brrr. Take Care

    STORMBOY

    Same here in thatcham, hope your up and dressed stormboy !!!!!!

    Storm/Convective Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    My research analysis applied to the current situation in northern France and Belgium indicates a high chance of an MCS type event forming over south central and southeast England this evening and lasting well into the overnight period. The energy peak for this comes between 2330 and 0130 GMT, so that would place it 0030 to 0230 BST. As you know, in the past, this is the ideal timing for a highly electrical type of MCS in the greater London area. Would be on the watch for this to develop gradually next three hours as cells drift into Hampshire from the south, and Kent-east Sussex from the southeast. There should be generally anticyclonic rotation of these two clusters and a phasing of them around 0200. Parts of East Anglia may get in on the action by then.

    As to the front further west, you can see that a wave feature in northwest France has tended to pull energy south as these other systems rotate past in the warm air mass. This is leaving the cold front somewhat starved of energy despite a good temperature gradient. I think the front will try to reactivate as it drifts at a snails pace further east (cells drift north), but the most one could expect from it would be some moderate rain and a few rumbles of thunder as it slowly moves into the Midlands tonight. With luck it might energize in phase with the MCS.

    I'll go with this man, lets hope he's right

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    There are already good signs for tonight, a massive portion of this is front is falling as snow, and as the evening draws near the lowering temps will only aid this. Areas where this will hit after dark, further east, therefore will have even lower temps and it should fall as snow. Exciting times tonight! Falling as snow as far down as S. Wales

    falling as snow here!! checked again and it is defo snow

    Heavy rain/storms 20/21st July --->

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    tipping it down again here now, not needed. Just come back from a drive around Aldermastom, Thatcham areas. Many roads shut or impassable, many houses in Thatcham flooded, mostly on new developments built on flood plains (when will they learn !). Apart from the distress to homeowners the most heartless thing we saw was many abadoned cars had had thier windows smashed and contents stolen. I wish a plague upon the thieves.

    Will it snow in......?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Happy birthday Summer Blizzard! 18 today, why aren't you down the pub? :drinks:

    Those figures you quote on snow depths are irrelevant until closer the time to be honest and at least you have some decent enough elevation in your favour as well!

    Hi Joneseye

    When you get to the top of beacon hill wave to me, i can see it from my bedroom window, lets hope its covered in the white stuff !!!!

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