Alkyd
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Posts posted by Alkyd
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Mostly cloudy here in SE Wales, but a few sunny periods from time to time.
Temp 16.7C
1010 hPa rising
Almost no wind
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I've seen 4 separate individual over the last week here between Newport and Chepstow. Each one was resting, one on the top of a tree, the other three on telephone lines.
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From BBC news ticker just received:
Seven killed as tornado hits town in Kansas, US.
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Blasting down in Brum!!
I'm driving to Monmouth tomorrow - is this wies? Any observations gratefully accepted.
Regards,
Mike.
Mike you should get there OK via Motorways and A40, but Monmouth is pretty hilly away from the river, so if you were going up there, could be a problem as snow is much worse higher up.
Alan
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Around weds/thurs I see 500mb temps of circa -30C and 850mb temps of circa -5C, do we really think this is conducive to a major snow event?
From my past observations I've always looked for -35 to -40C at 500mb and -10 at 850mb for a real risk of decent snow.
Am I wrong?
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Wet and miserable out , windy too from SW. Temperature has jumped noticeably since about 2pm from (then) 8°C to (now) nearly 12°C. Pressure up and down like a yoyo, currently 996mb and rising.
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A getting worse sort of day. It has got really grey over the last hour and the rain is just about starting.
Pressure 999mb and dropping
Temperature 7.4ºC and falling
Wind Southerly and rising slightly
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It's thoroughly wet and miserable here in SE Wales today. Grey, misty (vis about 2 miles), and wet, with 7mm of rain already having fallen this morning. Mild with it at 9 ºC and wind not particularly strong from the SSW
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A very wet, dark and miserable afternoon. The pressure has just stopped falling and is looking upwards again. Had a gust of 32mph about half an hour go, but wind has eased a little, now 10mph.
Pressure reached 1006mb but now 1007mb. Temperature falling, now 9.7C; dew point falling like a stone from 10C to 5.5C in half an hour.
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Temperature in double figures: Now 10.3C +0.8C/hr
Pressure falling quite rapidly: 1013mb -1.6mb/hr
Wind relatively light: ~6mph backing SSE to SE
Cloudy with good visibility.
Dry
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Alkyd, you should be able to find a graph showing this correlation in one of the links on the 'basics of Environment Change' pin at the top of the forum board. The global rise graph show a trend line, not an anticipated rise line; a predicted mean temperature; hence the straight line.
Current prediction for 2100 is one of the variables which is most difficult to predict, as it involves human nature, behaviour, and assumptions about global population and economic growth. This is why the IPCC set six different scenarios for CO2 rise, based on a defined set of assumptions about our future behaviour. The 'standard' scenario nowadays is the low-mid emissions scenario; some attempt to control CO2 before 2050, slow down beyond that to almost zero by 2100. This version estimates a level of about 450 ppm by 2050. At the moment, we are on 380ppm, and rising by 2.1% per year: we aren't going to hold emissions to 450 ppm.
The Stern report uses 550 ppm as it's 2100 baseline, but this much extra CO2 might increase temperatures by 3C; about a degree more than what is considered to be the 'tolerable limit' of climate change.
If the information on the 'Basics' pin isn't useful, let us know & we'll try to find something else for you.
:)P
Thanks for that P3. I guess I had been a touch lazy in not checking all the info out. However I was really referencing the "information" link on the previous post :blush: which certainly didn't tell all the story.
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I've just found this Information
Quite interesting I though for some basic information.
It does show a correlation between the rise in CO2 emmissions and Global Temperature.
The only thing i'm dubious of, is the prediction of temperature to 2100.
1980 and beyond seems to be the key, and really, there has been an influx of industrial output, car emissions, flight emissions et al.
But will CO2 emissions grow at the rate predicted in this information?
Does temperature rise in linear to CO2 emissions, or does a certain quantity of CO2 emissions create a consistant warming (i.e. is emmissions stay at the same level, will the global temperature continue increasing, or will it also level out)?
One thing is true about GW. Its not an easy science.
The information shown in the link doesn't actually predict what the CO2 will be in 2100, although a graph is shown predicting the temperature to 2100. I would like to have seen what the mathematical correlation between the two was between roughly 1800 and 2000 which takes in the period when the CO2 started to rise.
From observation alone of the graphs, the CO2 rise is exponential but global temperature rise linear. What sort of correlation coefficient is there?
I don't expect an answer from here, but it does beg the question.
Monday 6th August 2012 - Weather and General Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I spoke way too soon. It's absolutely pouring down now. The showers are coming from the West and seem to have intensified over the last 30 minutes.
Temp has dropped a little to 15.9C and there's no real wind associated with the showery activity.