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Tractor

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Posts posted by Tractor

  1. I don't want it to seem like I'm championing RJS and BFTP but their original post on the 7th November now reads like a historical account rather than a forecast.

    Exceptional stuff guys. Keep it up :cold:

    Mods feel free to move this to a relevant place you see fit. Folk sorry for delay my PC failed on me yesterday.

    Friday, 7 November, 2008

    Cold spells ahead -- the combined winter forecast of BFTP and RJS

    December.

    December will then replicate this pattern of a milder start, after perhaps a few days of anticyclonic blocking and frosty nights. A severe storm is indicated as more likely than not, in the period 11th-14th, timed for the full moon at perigee which on this occasion will pretty much coincide with other strong energy peaks. So mark the calendar if not setting the watch for a strong SW to W wind event across the British Isles around the 12th-13th perhaps continuing with a second period of strong winds shortly after. This will also be a milder period with temperatures likely to peak around 12 C. After this, much colder conditions are likely to follow as blocking high pressure will quickly redevelop both to the north and well to the northeast, directing the jet stream back towards France and the Mediterranean. Whether it happens suddenly or in stages, there is likely to be a much colder period in late December and some chance for a white Christmas, although a better chance of a snowy New Years Eve and Day. With all of these variations, December is likely to register a near average 4.5 C on the old CET, but this will be less interesting than the week to week variations.

    I don't want to be a party-pooper, but we've had the coldest start to winter for many years? So let's not suggest it is an historical record.

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