Things looking a bit better now with the 0z and 12z GFS runs. There is 100% ensemble support for a warmup in Eastern/Central Europe on the 22nd, with 850hpa temperatures rising to ~3 degrees. The majorit then show a pulse of cold air arriving from the north, with 850hpa temperatures dropping back to -5. This is accompanied by a band of precipitation which will probably start as rain and turn into snow, with perhaps 10 - 20cm falling in the Tatras. Another pulse of warm air arrives from the south east on the 25th, with 850hpa temperatures rising to ~0. After this things get more confused, but there is an increasing trend for cold air to plunge in from the north west, accompanied by significant amounts of precipitation. The exact timing is unclear, but hopefully this will fall as snow. After that... operational and control GFS runs show the return of extremely cold conditions. There is some limited ensemble support for this, so we shall see. Edit: ECMWF ensembles seem to point to the same outcome as well. Fingers crossed.