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philmes

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    Alpine Snow And Skiing Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by philmes

    Things looking a bit better now with the 0z and 12z GFS runs.

    There is 100% ensemble support for a warmup in Eastern/Central Europe on the 22nd, with 850hpa temperatures rising to ~3 degrees. The majorit then show a pulse of cold air arriving from the north, with 850hpa temperatures dropping back to -5. This is accompanied by a band of precipitation which will probably start as rain and turn into snow, with perhaps 10 - 20cm falling in the Tatras. Another pulse of warm air arrives from the south east on the 25th, with 850hpa temperatures rising to ~0.

    After this things get more confused, but there is an increasing trend for cold air to plunge in from the north west, accompanied by significant amounts of precipitation. The exact timing is unclear, but hopefully this will fall as snow. After that... operational and control GFS runs show the return of extremely cold conditions. There is some limited ensemble support for this, so we shall see.

    Edit: ECMWF ensembles seem to point to the same outcome as well. Fingers crossed.

    Alpine Snow And Skiing Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So there's been a small amount of precipitation in the Tatras, amounting to maybe 10cm. Coupled with the snowmaking efforts (helped by the incredibly cold and dry air), suitably equipped resorts are reporting up to 40cm of snow. Not bad. Given the low temperatures, the artificial snow is likely to be relatively "dry", so I'm a bit dubious as to the quality of the base.

    However, the forecast for the 22nd onwards is a bit worrying - very warm 850hpa temps, precipitation and very strong south-westerly winds. Fohen effect anyone?

    Alpine Snow And Skiing Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm curious about the medium term prognosis in central/eastern Europe (specifically Pilsko/Szczyrk/Zakopane on the border between Poland and Slovakia) where I'm going to be during the festive period. Temperatures look to be extremely low for the next couple of weeks, but essentially dry. Not such a problem in the Alps with large artificial snow operations but more problematic when you've only got a couple of 10 year old ducted fan cannons. So what's the chance of some decent precipitation between now and Christmas?

    12z Model discussion - rain, sleet or snow?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Nick F did you move to tunbridge wells recently - i never noticed you lived there before. During holidays i live 10 mins away.

    Back to the weather, Ive just taken a look at the AO forecast for the first time in a while, and i can say im overwhelmed. Its a fairly good indicator of whether we have any chance of prolonged blocking and wintry condiditons here in the longer term, and right now its looking like theres quite a bit of disagreement, but most of the ensemble members are actually going to take it positive. Four or five, including two outliers which have it plunging negative, show it staying negative with the beginning of negative plunge at the extent of the forecast. The rest of the 11 ensembles members though have it rising steadily towards a positive state by mid month, including one horrible, but unlikely outlier, which rockets positive. Here it is:

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ex/ao.sprd2.gif

    Overwhelmed? Underwhelmed surely? Positive AO tends to promote warm and wet conditions in our neck of the woods... interestingly the NAO is trending negative in the long term, which is a good thingh.

    Not that I ascribe much accuracy to the long term NAO/AO forecasts :D

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