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Zenarcher

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  1. Zenarcher
    [center][size=8]NOGAPS[/size][/center]
    [center][size=6]1982 to 2013[/size][/center]

    [size=4][b]The Start:[/b] NOGAPS came into the world in 1982 it's job was simple give the Navy a weather forecast. It impressed people by going to 180 hours and bringing in 4 updates per day.[/size]

    [size=4][b]It's Prime: [/b]NOGAPS did have a prime moment when it was new and updated reguarly it could compete well with the other models at the time.[/size]

    [size=4][b]The Mocking: [/b]In the past few years NOGAPS has become very outdated compared to the other weather models, members of the weather communities would often mock it for being a terrible model and not even worth looking at. However NOGAPS always had some hardcore fans who stood by it through the tough times to give it hope for a better tomorrow.[/size]

    [size=4][b]The end Is Near: [/b]A few months ago NOGAPS received the worst news in it's life it's younger wiser brother would be replacing it in February 2013. It shocked the weather communities around the world and tributes poured in.[/size]

    [size=4][b]The End: [/b]NAVGEM it's replacement has arrived at the moment NOGAPS is still going it's just showing NAVGEM around the place to get settled down but soon NOGAPS will be switched off for good.[/size]

    Thank you NOGAPS I hope you enjoy you're retirement.
  2. Zenarcher
    [center]Update 21st July 2013[/center]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    A small update from my original summer forecast back in May,[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    First onto August and September the CFS seems confident on average temperatures for the rest of the summer. As for rainfall, August average with some Western area's seeing below average rainfall as we move into September things change around with most of the UK seeing very wet weather to end the summer.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    And with more data available I have reran the climate simulator for the temperatures,[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=178427"][img]http://f.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_07_2013/xpost-6686-0-65940600-1374419197_thumb.png.pagespeed.ic.QuvtB48KXC.png[/img][/url][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    The pink line is our forecast average temperature and the green line is the average so its basically saying the average temperatures for the rest of summer to be mainly 1.5c above average.[/font][/color]

    [center][size=6][b]Summer Forecast 2013[/b][/size][/center]

    [size=5][b]How the forecast was made[/b][/size]

    I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range term trends for the upcoming months. I have also
    used a program called Clima Sim to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the program for the winter forecast and it done well, so I will be using it again for the summer forecast. After checking how Clima Sim handled the winter it does seem to forecast temperatures slightly more accurate than the CFS.

    [size=5][b]June [/b][/size]- Last year we saw a very unsettled June with very heavy rain at times causing places to flood, low pressure mainly dominated the month we also had strong winds and the mean temperature was 0.7 °C below average. I believe June 2013 will be very different to last years.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    [attachment=172100:JuneTemp.png]

    For June 2013 the CFS shows it to be average for all of the UK apart from the Eastern coasts of England that may be slightly on the below average temperatures.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [attachment=172101:JuneRainfall.png]

    In the image above it shows June 2012 being a very wet month and that the CFS had it forecast to be wet. This year the CFS goes for a very dry month over Scotland, Ireland, Northern & South Western England and Wales, with the rest being average.

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [attachment=172102:JunePressure.png]

    The image above shows high pressure being high over the Atlantic region and into Western parts of the UK this would explain the average temperatures and drier weather especially for those in the West and North.

    [size=5][b]July[/b][/size] - Last year it continued the unsettled theme with more rainfall, low pressure in charge and the overall mean temperature was 1.0 °C below average. The weather did get slightly warmer and drier towards the end though. For this year it may continue what June had.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    [attachment=172103:JulyTemp.png]

    Its looking very similar to what June has average everywhere apart from the Eastern coasts that could be just slightly cooler than average. Overall it does look to be warmer than last years July.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [attachment=172104:JulyRainfall.png]

    The CFS goes for Ireland and Southern Scotland to be very dry elsewhere either slightly drier or average.

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [attachment=172105:JulyPressure.png]

    Any high pressure doesn't look strong over the UK but it should mainly appear in the Atlantic. Low pressure sits to our East. This would explain why temperatures to the far East are at risk of being slightly cooler.

    [size=5][b]August[/b][/size] - Last year it was again dominated by low pressure with more wind and rain and only the South East of England saw the best of the dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures were however 0.4 °C above average. August this year may be similar to last years. It is important to note confidence levels drop a bit here.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    Average for the entire UK so similar to last years August temperatures.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [attachment=172106:AugustRainfall.png]

    The CFS goes for above average rainfall over Ireland, Wales and the Midlands. Elsewhere remaining average.

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [attachment=172107:AugustPressure.png]

    At the moment it's looking like it will be a battle between high and low pressure. High pressure mainly very strong to our East and low pressure to our West in the Atlantic. The low pressure doesn't look strong though so the high pressure may win and give the UK a decent spell of good weather.

    [size=5][b]September[/b] [/size]- Last year the first half started off fine for most but the second half became more unsettled. It was another summer month with below average temperatures that were 0.7 °C below the average mean. Confidence for September is low at the moment.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    Average for all of the UK so may be slightly warmer than last years.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [attachment=172109:SeptemberRainfall.png]

    Below average over Scotland and South Western England. Elsewhere average.

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [attachment=172108:SeptemberPressure.png]

    High pressure is to our West and East but low pressure is expected to be over the UK.

    [size=5][b]Climate Simulations[/b][/size]

    [attachment=172110:ClimateSim.png]

    After finally getting the data needed to run the simulations the results are in for the summer, so to put the image above into simple words the results came back saying that the temperatures on average through the summer will be about 0.5°C above average. It didn't show anything very warm or cold just slightly warmer than usual overall.

    [size=5][b]Overall Thoughts[/b][/size]

    Starting with temperatures looking through the CFS trends and the Climate Simulator data temperatures are forecast be be either average or just slightly above average. None of them are showing anything very warm or cold. Onto rainfall and it looks like it will start off much drier than normal with June and July. August changes this as it turns average everywhere with Wales and the Midlands looking to be wetter. September takes us back to drier rainfall amounts close to average.

    To sum it up in a few words, mainly drier than usual with temperatures being average or slightly above average but no exceptional warm spell expected.

    I hope you enjoyed reading this forecast.
  3. Zenarcher
    [center]Short update can be found at the very bottom[/center]

    [center][size=5]Autumn 2013 Forecast[/size][/center]

    The forecast below is made using the CFS monthly and seasonal forecast data as well as data from Climate Simulator a program where I input data of the current climate and it calculates the temperatures of the following months.

    [size=5]September[/size]

    Temperatures - For the rest of September near to average, with Southern parts of England experiencing some brief periods of colder weather.

    Rainfall - Similar with the temperatures for the rest of the month average rainfall.

    [size=5]October[/size]

    Rainfall - October for most of the UK is looking above average especially for Western parts meanwhile the far East coasts may get away with average rainfall amounts.

    [attachment=185915:OR.png]

    Temperature - Overall the UK in general looks to have average temperatures but Southern parts of England may get some spells of warmer weather and the far North of Scotland some spells of colder weather. Climate Simulator backs up the CFS forecasts and gives the UK temperatures 0.3c above average.

    [attachment=185916:OT.png]

    [size=5]November[/size]

    Rainfall - November is expected to carry on the above rainfall amounts from October although this time its mostly England, Wales and Ireland while most of Scotland are closer to average in the North.

    [attachment=185917:NR.png]

    Temperatures - Average temperatures for the whole of the UK says the CFS but the Climate Simulator gives us 0.5c above average temperatures. Overall I believe Novembers temperatures will be mostly average but some periods of weather may bring in slightly warmer temperatures.

    [size=5]Monthly Pressure Patterns[/size]

    [size=5]October - [/size]Strong high pressure sits to our North West in the Atlantic,

    [attachment=185920:Preo.png]

    [size=5]November -[/size] Similar pressure set up to October,

    [attachment=185921:Pren.png]

    [center][size=5]Start of Winter Predictions[/size][/center]

    [size=5]December[/size]

    This isn't a actual forecast yet just a very quick look at the start of winter.

    Rainfall - Looking very wet across the West and average elsewhere.

    Temperatures - CFS goes for average temperatures and Climate Simulator 0.3c above average.

    [size=5]Overall -[/size] Autumn looks mostly wet and probably unsettled at times, temperatures close to average for most of the time but some mild spells of weather may make things slightly warmer than usual. Early winter looks to carry this on through being wet with around average temperatures.


    [center][b][size=5]Update 1st of November 2013[/size][/b][/center][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    [b]November[/b][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    Rainfall - Average or above average in general but the far North of Scotland may get away with slightly less than average.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    Temperature - Using both Climate Simulator and CFS data they agree on temperatures staying above average or at times close to average.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    Pressure Patterns - Low pressure mainly situated over Iceland and high pressure over Europe and at times over the UK. With the UK being sandwiched between the two it explains the average or above average temperatures and rainfall mostly above average.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    Quick look at the start of Winter December and January - Please note this isn't my winter 2013/2014 forecast it will be put together at the end of November.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    [b]December[/b] - Lower than average temperatures and rainfall going by the CFS. Climate Simulator doesn't exactly agree it goes for more average temperatures but does agree on some short cold spells making temperatures drop just slightly below average.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    [b]January[/b] - Below average rainfall for the North but above for the South. Average temps in the South but below average in the North says the CFS. Climate Simulator which I've been using for over a year now and yet to be wrong goes for average temperatures in the first half of January with short cold spells but the second half of January turns much colder about 1.5c nearly 2c below normal. It will be interesting to see if it changes it mind when running it again with more data at the end of the month for the winter forecast.[/font][/color]
  4. Zenarcher
    Welcome to the weather model experiment of 2013, in 2011 the ECM won it and in 2012 the UKMO won it but what model performed the best through out this experiment? It took place in December 2013.

    These are the 9 models that took part in this experiment and some of them are new the NAVGEM, NASA and CMA which have never been tested before against the rest.

    GFS
    ECM
    UKMO
    JMA
    GME
    GEM
    NAVGEM
    NASA GEOS5
    CMA

    So how does it work? I let each model do its 12z runs and I pick a random location at different time periods and then wait for that day to arrive and check the actual conditions and weather reports, whatever model gets it more accurate gains more points. The longer range forecast for example 144 hours awards more points than 24 hours.

    [b]24 Hours -[/b] UKMO performed the best closely followed by GEM and JMA. The GFS is surprisingly at the bottom struggling to gain points.

    1. UKMO 17
    2. GEM 16
    3. JMA 15
    4. ECM 14
    5. GME 11
    6. NASA GEOS5 9
    7. CMA 9
    8. GFS 7
    9. NAVGEM 7

    [b]48 Hours -[/b] The ECM takes the most points here followed by JMA and GEM. Both the UKMO and GFS performed slightly poorer than expected.

    1. ECM 30
    2. JMA 27
    3. GEM 25
    4. NAVGEM 25
    5. NASA GEOS5 24
    6. GFS 23
    7. UKMO 20
    8. GME 20
    9. CMA 12

    [b]72 Hours -[/b] Once again the ECM is on top followed by the GFS which is much higher up this time.

    1. ECM 53
    2. GFS 43
    3. NAVGEM 33
    4. UKMO 24
    5. JMA 24
    6. GEM 24
    7. NASA GEOS5 28
    8. GME 22
    9. CMA 22

    [b]96 Hours - [/b] JMA managed to just gain a few more points here than the ECM. The GEM model wasn't too far behind either. Once again we see the UKMO and GFS score slightly lower than you would expect.

    1. JMA 53
    2. ECM 50
    3. GEM 48
    4. NAVGEM 27
    5. UKMO 23
    6. GFS 20
    7. NASA GEOS5 16
    8. CMA 7

    [b]120 Hours -[/b] GEM sits at the top 9 points clear of the JMA as the GFS really struggled at this point.

    1. GEM 52
    2. JMA 43
    3. ECM 41
    4. NAVGEM 35
    5. UKMO 30
    6. CMA 18
    7. NASA GEOS5 15
    8. GFS 13

    [b]144 Hours -[/b] GEM continued to stay strong in the longer range as it sits 30 points ahead of the ECM in second while NAVGEM performed really badly.

    1. GEM 93
    2. ECM 63
    3. JMA 58
    4. UKMO 48
    5. GFS 41
    6. CMA 28
    7. NAVGEM 8

    [size=5][b]Total Points Gained[/b][/size]

    [b]Best Models Between 24 and 72 Hours - [/b]The ECM is the clear winner here gaining the most points within the first 72 hours followed by the GFS and JMA. The UKMO scored slightly lower than I expected it to.

    1. ECM 97
    2. GFS 73
    3. JMA 66
    4. GEM 65
    5. NAVGEM 65
    6. UKMO 61
    7. NASA GEOS5 61
    8. GME 53
    9. CMA 43

    [b]Best Models Between 96 and 144 Hours -[/b] It's fair to say GEM performed really well here while the ECM and JMA were also strong and tie in points.

    1. GEM 193
    2. ECM 154
    3. JMA 154
    4. UKMO 101
    5. GFS 74
    6. NAVGEM 70
    7. CMA 53

    [size=5][b]Best Overall Models[/b][/size]

    [b]1. GEM 258[/b]
    [b]2. ECM 251[/b]
    [b]3. JMA 220[/b]
    [b]4. UKMO 162[/b]
    [b]5. GFS 147[/b]
    [b]6. NAVGEM 135[/b]
    [b]7. CMA 96[/b]
    [b]8. NASA GEOS5 92[/b]
    [b]9. GME 53[/b]

    [b]Overall -[/b] So GEM is the 2013 winner but a very well deserved second place goes to the ECM. The JMA model also performed well during the experiment. I was surprised to see last years winner the UKMO score slightly less points this time and the GFS had a lot of bad moments. The new models done well but didn't challenge any of the bigger models.
  5. Zenarcher
    [size=5][b]March 2014 - [/b][size=4]Based on long range forecasts and the climate simulator.[/size][/size]

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    After the wettest winter since records began there are signs of above average rainfall continuing into March especially for the West.

    [attachment=208606:MarchRain.png]

    Eastern parts are likely to see average rainfall amounts.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    The South East of England is likely to see 1°C or maybe even 1.5°C above average temperatures as the rest of the UK stays on the average side. There are no signs
    of any colder than normal temperatures for March.

    [attachment=208607:MarchTemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b]

    Low pressure is expected to remain the main feature during March. High pressure may make a regular appearence in the Atlantic but there are no signs of it being strong enough to block off the Atlantic. However the high pressure over Scandinavia is looking very strong and I expect it at times to give Eastern parts of the country some settled drier weather with the slightly above average temperatures as well.

    [attachment=208608:Pressurepattern.png]

    [b]Overall[/b]

    [attachment=208609:MarchOverall.png]

    The image above shows a similar pattern we have seen this winter with low pressure mainly been driven in from the Atlantic giving unsettled weather to the West and above average rainfall. The East can expect something different with the rainfall being average and above average temperatures thanks to high pressure coming in from the East from time to time.
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