Jonnie G
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Posts posted by Jonnie G
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I will go for 15.8C pelase.
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I'll go for 15.6C please.
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slightly below average, 7.6C please.
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Normal for recent years maybe, but in the long-term context it was pretty mild:
December 4.9 (-0.2)
January 6.6 (+2.4)
February 5.4 (+1.2)
I make it at 1.1C above the 1971-2000 average, and 1.5C above the 1961-90 average. In terms of all reference periods bar the 10-year running mean, this was a mild winter- not exceptionally mild, but mild nonetheless.
Current five year rolling averages are:-
February 4.9C
December 5.2C
January 5.8C
The January figure is the highest in the CET series, having previously peaked at 5.4C in 1737. I was surprised to find that the five year rolling mean for February fell to 1.9C in 1987, the lowest five year period since before 1700 when the temperature readings are to the nearest 0.5C, and presumably not so reliable. The five year rolling mean to January 1943 came in at 1.8C, the coldest January period of the 20th century, however Januarys have been through much colder spells than this, being as low as 0.6C for the 5 years to 1815, and 0.8C upto 1780. It seems that January really is the month that's put in the most warming historically, and is presumably therefore the month with the most potential for cooling off again at some point.
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March can be a wintry month, and in this year without a winter I very much hope that it will be, but realistically I think I will go for a mild 7.2C please.
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All toys removed due to misuse against the manufacturers recommendation.
Yes, Winters since I finished at University have been generally disappointing - 95/96 aside, but I think as well as the obvious effects of the generally warmer climate that has been the story of the last 20 years there is a degree of fatalism to be accounted for - we expect winter to disappear because we expect the planet to warm at the prescribed rate, hence there is far more hysteria over a double figure winter's day, which is far far from unusual, than there is over frost of -4 which represents an equal lurch the other side of normal.
The true story is not one of mild becoming milder - patently that is not the case or maxima records would be going nine to the dozen, its that cold is contracting or not occuring. The question is how much of that is down to climate change shifting the synoptic pattern to 'impossible', how much is down to the usual factors of luck or otherwise required in a marginal snow climate and how much is down to 'natural' forcing - El Nino, La Nina etc (bearing in mind those themselves could be unnaturally prolonged or occuring due to human influence)
Is a sustained arctic blast possible for the UK? Tricky to call, butit looks increasingly likely that the synoptic patterns required are moving (for the UK) into the 'impossible' column - alongside 1070mb HPs, Hurricanes and the like
Is a sustained arctic blast possible still? Or to put it another way is sustained northern blocking especially over Greenland possible still? I think it is, as I subscribe to the point of view that we have experienced a synoptic flip similar to those of the past which have abruptly flipped back, and this synoptic flip has coincided with global warming which has amplified the effect. I was astonished to discover that the 5 year average rolling January CET has only just this January surpassed it's all time high......... recorded in January 1737! Three years later and the synoptics had flipped, with a January CET of -3C, and one of the harshest winters ever recorded. So you never know, but I think there may be something in the suggestion that cfc destruction of the Ozone layer has resulted in excess stratospheric cooling and associated strong formation of a polar vortex over Greenland.
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Stephen, the North American Divide has a huge impact. There tends to be a standing wave in the PFJ caused by the forced ascent of air; as the air ascends in the W it rotates clockwise and gains angular momentum on top of the increased coriolis effect, and a basic principle of the flow of the jet is that angular momentum must be constant (or close to it) so to counteract this increase the jet turns equatorwards, losing angular momentum. This upper trough explains much of the tendency of the central US to be cold in winter, and it also tends to set up a pattern in which the jet enters the Atlantic in the lower half of its typical latitudinal range, thus setting up an "upswing across the Atlantic", and also tending to encourage cyclogenesis of the eastern seabord, both because the jet is accelerating again, and also because by being south a steep thermal gradient is encouraged between polar air aloft and a very warm ocean surface..
Yes SF a fascinating piece of research which I wasn't aware of before picking it up on this forum.......I had realised that the Gulf stream in it's own right is a relatively minor player in warming north-west Europe as there would still be a huge body of water to our west to carry heat from the summer even without a warming current. I had not however realised the role played by the Rocky mountains in causing a large scale disturbance of the global flow, giving for the UK a mean South-Westerly instead of a mean Westerly. This synoptic difference is huge, and I fully accept that the Gulf Stream is responsible for only around 10% of our positive global temperature anomaly in winter, contrary to popular belief.
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All I can say about the CET for this month is in two words sods law!
After 6 months of either slightly below, near and not hugely above average months that in all earnest were marked by their absence of extremes it was just typical that January our mid winter month had to revert back to type and be ridicuously above average again, I really had hoped that January could redeem itself this year, however, alas it has dissapointed greatly.
January has dissapointed for so long now (last decent wintry Jan being 1997), and in this respect I feel over the last 10 years has been the biggest let down of all the months. Next year I really will be expecting better!
I guess people at Dalwhinnie or Tomintoul in the highlands would say this January's been okay with snow cover for around half the month. Do we have any members from these places?
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It's looking like around 3C from top to tail of the UK, which is not exceptional, but I suspect fairly unusual nowadays. It's certainly enough to explain why Scotland, particularly higher ground, has seemed to have a fairly wintry month whilst down south it's been spring - again. We seem to go from autumn to spring now (in the south) without passing through Winter.
I'd have thought it will be at least 4C difference between the met office's warmest and coldest climatic regions of the UK this January. The average difference between the Warmest and Coldest climatic region is 2.6C for January.
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Sorry if this has been mentioned before - but it looks to be the first month with an above average second half since May.
Yes, let's remember what a totally random and irrelevant statistic that one is!
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Ridiculous? that wouldn't happen to be because you dont believe in GW would it?
If you read my response 259 to SM you will see that I do believe in GW.
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a mild spell such as the one we experienced in early December could just as equally signal a warming trend - but it doesn't because it is just part of the month and therefore doesn't represent the whole month.
That doesn't take into account the fact that all data and evidence shows a warming trend and one that will prove that getting a sub 2C CET in a month is difficult and its not as if anyone said its impossible.
The point abouth the examples from mid feb - mid march '05 and '06 that I quoted to SM is that they were each a month long, but I agree that getting a sub 2 month is now difficult.
As an aside, I noticed that of the sub 2 Januarys quoted by LP, 3 were sub 2, 5 were sub 1 and 3 were sub zero. It seems that once your sub 2, you're more than likely to be sub 1 also.
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Note the big gap between 1929 and 1940 - thats said thats almost still decadal.
I too wonder if sub 2C is realistically possible in our lifetime.
Note the even bigger gap for January CET between 1900 and 1917....infact it's between 1897 (1.6C) and 1917 (1.6C).
Besides you vould probably similarly say that the beginning of December hitting 17C and a minimum of 10C means that a December CET of 10C is possible. Its very unlikely and I believe it has as much chance as sub 2C for the monthI didn't realise that your comment that a December CET of 2C was as likely as 10C was not meant to be taken literally.
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I don't have much of a firm view on what is causing c change and g warming just that they are happening, so the above could be so, yes. However whichever the case, given that I believe things have changed, I must therefore conclude that a sub 2 month would be, in the current climate, rather less expected than a 20c month - I'd put it alongside a 21c month in likelihood.
I couldn't agree with those odds - I feel that in the current climate sub 2 wouldn't be that hard to achieve in February if we could get mainly polar air and an anticyclonic spell, such as mid feb - mid march of both 2005 and 2006 only a fortnight earlier. Also a cold December with an inversion might manage sub 2, but for now I'm afraid the mid winter period of January has become a write off. On the other hand, a 20 month has never happened, never mind 21 so as I say, I couldn't agree with those odds.
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I agree thus far however, if you believe in climate change and that we are warming, the natural conclusion is that the 10-1 shot becomes more and more long odds each year to the point where it becomes an extreme longshot (thats what I believe the case to be now)
If you do not subscribe to climate change and warming then of course your outlook will be different.
I agree that cold January has become a much longer shot, and the world is warming, but I don't think global warming is the reason for this change. Somebody suggested (was it Len?) that we are seeing the results of stratospheric cooling caused by ozone depletion by cfcs, resulting in a strong polar vortex setting up over Greenland each winter. This is the thing that's changed... the persistence of that vortex. Scandinavia has had some ridiculously mild seasons of late - probably +10C in parts so far this winter, and this is of course an issue of synoptics rather than warming. The reasons behind the synoptics are a different matter, but I'd favour the ozone depletion idea over warming at the surface, or perhaps a cyclical process of some kind.
Besides you vould probably similarly say that the beginning of December hitting 17C and a minimum of 10C means that a December CET of 10C is possible. Its very unlikely and I believe it has as much chance as sub 2C for the monthNo offence but that statement is absolutely ridiculous.
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I certainly don't think you're mad!
I don't 'think' we will get back below average - but thats why I said 'feel confident' rather than writing it off which I did in December to my cost.
It would take a very wintry spell - a classic as it were, to turn it around from where we look to be by about the 20th
Yes, and IF we get a classic, this month will be remembered as a good winter month with perhaps a below average CET. Perhaps with the global wind anomalies falling, and this low GLAAM business or whatever it is, we're more likely to see either persistent southerlies or persistent northerlies. Let's hope it's the latter, and should such a pattern change come to pass around the 20th then it will have been called remarkably well by our resident experts!
It is deadly quiet in here, surely there is something we should be arguing about?I'll go first -- looks to me like the CET will struggle up to the high sixes by about the 20th, then try to stay there for a few days.
Nice piece of hopecasting there Roger. The CET will NOT be in the high sixes by the 20th. It would require a pretty exceptional mild spell to get there by the 31st, obviously I'm hoping it doesn't!
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Although my memory of winters past only stretches back to the begining of the 80s, i too would put the Jan '87 spell at the top for coldness, in Kent anyway, although it was relatively short-lived by past standards (not todays) it was brutaly cold for lowland UK at its height, taken from Robin Stirling’s excellent The Weather of Britain - noon readings at Gatwick from the 7th to the 20th Jan 1987 in degrees C were: 0, -2, 1, -1, -5, -7, -7, -3, -2, -1, -3, -3, -3, -1.
I remember even with double glazing with the central heating on and a log fire feeling the cold from outside radiating from the windows inside. Don't think lowland Sern UK has seen daytime temperatures to match since.
Which makes it all the more irritating when the BBC weather presenters use little context when telling us how cold it will be, Wednesday last week Jay Wynne told us that it would be 'very cold' on Thursday, 2-3C maxes very cold, cold maybe but not very. The we have the general publics' view of what's cold and what's not, short-term memories have led many talk of cold snaps like Thursday's a big freeze, driven partly by the medias' misuse of the phrase, when clearly it is more like the small chill.
Well for me, my real intrest in wintry weather stems from the winter of 78-79, when I turned 11 yrs old. As far as snow goes, then there is before 15th of february 1979 and after that date, because the blizzard on that day in the north-east midlands was extraordinary - there had been a lot of snow up to that point in the winter, with the new years blizzard giving quite a thick cover and many more falls of a few inches in January and February, with sledging and snow fun routine, but looking out of my bedroom window on the morning of the 15th February I saw a completely modified landscape, with elaborate snow formations on the same scale as the fences and window levels.....there was even a small snow drift in the living room!
As far as cold goes, then I too remember the degree of cold could be judged by how far up the inside of the window the ice had got overnight, and I remember one day in January 1982 the whole inside was covered in the frosted pattern, and I checked the max-min thermometer in the garden and found it had fallen to -17C. I also recorded -17C during the 1987 spell, although we had double glazing by then, but there's no dought that some of the spells in 78-87 period were remarkable.
Another memorable thing from cold spells of the past is the way the milk would freeze on the doorstep pushing the bottle tops off!
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When I last checked they were always in the same place, though I know what you mean. The fact remains, if you were to take the average temperature for winter as a whole it doesn't matter how you slice and dice the 90 odd days, the overall average is unchanged.
I have actualy produced some analysis previously showing the rolling daily mean.
It's clear from this that the duration, frequency and magnitude of cold has diminshed.
That's an interesting bit of number crunching there SF.....Very noticeable from the block bars is the lack of 5 or more day sub zero average periods in the last decade, and that they were so commonplace from 78-87, although I guess we knew that really. I will say that, along with various other members, my opinion is that we're most likely looking at a process that is somewhat cyclical, and we'll see the frequency of the block bar events go up quite a lot in the not too distant future. Not that I'm suggesting the world isn't warming though.
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True, although I think mr Data might confirm that there were month long periods below 3 from mid feb-mid march of both 2005 and 2006.
Perhaps the 30 day rolling average together with the seasonal average would be the best stats to look at. Afterall, monthly bondaries are random.
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Nudge the boundary down to 3 and the picture is even more stark.
True, although I think mr Data might confirm that there were month long periods below 3 from mid feb-mid march of both 2005 and 2006.
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Which is the coldest place in Britain? Is there any place with a January avgtemp below 0'?
I don't think there is an official station at an inhabited place in Britain with a January average below 0. Braemar came pretty close from 1961-90 with February at 0.6C.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ave...es/braemar.html
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Flash is at 800 feet...Alston is over 1,000 feet in height. Been there meself...very nice scenery surrounding it too. Decent market-town.
I seem to be contradicting you rather a lot today pp, but in actual fact flash sits at 1500 feet asl....I went on bike ride there as a teenager. There are some very large high level lodges in the highlands, there's one near dalwhinnie at about 500M asl, so that might be the coldest inhabited place in the uk.
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I would like to revise my prediction to 2.1 please.
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The cycle of warmth to be broken with a CET of 1.1C please.
July CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Jonnie G
18.4 C is a bit warmer than 'quite warm' Roger - it ranks 8th in the July CET series! It's a big ask from the set up we seem to be in at the moment.