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Thundery wintry showers

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  1. Thundery wintry showers
    We learn from an early age that life isn't fair, but learn to accept it, cope with it and be pleased that there are people out there who are much worse off than we are. But few ask the question, why isn't life fair?
    Life isn't fair partly because of random chance, unplanned events, or 'fate' or 'God' if you believe in that sort of thing, things that generally can't be helped, though their ill-effects can often be helped. However, a large proportion of unfairness is caused by human behaviour- something that generally can be helped.
    So, some perceived unfairness can be reduced in extent, but should it be?
    1. There's the "some people can have it, so why can't I?" type of unfairness. I contend that we should address some aspects of this type of unfairness- especially inequality of opportunity, by helping give the less well-off access to the same opportunities as the well-off. However, what we must be careful of is the dreaded lowest common denominator policymaking, where we address it by denying everyone access to the opportunities that only some used to have. That's a case where reducing unfairness isn't necessarily good.
    2. Then there's the "I want it, why can't I have it?" type of unfairness.
    Again, there are cases where I contend this should be addressed, and others where it shouldn't. If people want something that is likely to have harmful effects on themselves/others in the long run, or that is unrealistic, giving them it will create more injustice than it solves.
    But otherwise, why shouldn't they have it? In practice, the main reasons why they don't get it are because of the harmful behaviour of other people- or, the enforcement of unjust laws or norms that restrict responsible behaviour as well as irresponsible behaviour. Again, these issues need to be addressed, by getting the balance right between authoritarian rule vs. liberty to do what you want.
    The problem with us Brits is that we love to moan about issues, but the second someone suggests doing something about them, we get defensive, and we say "that's life, it's just the way it is" and "there are much worse things to worry about, like the starving African kids, therefore we needn't address them". Injustices don't annoy me in themselves, what annoys me is when injustices happen that can, and should, be avoided, but in practice people are resistant to the idea of avoiding them so they continue to recur.
  2. Thundery wintry showers
    May as well start writing some blog weather forecasts; partly because many other members of the forecast team are doing a similar thing, and also partly as a means of keeping myself up-to-date with events.
    21 April: A very hazy day across much of the country, with some patchy rain affecting Scotland, Ireland and to a lesser extent northern England under a rather moist south-westerly flow. South-eastern areas should experience the most sunshine. A warm day over England & Wales with highs touching 20C in the south, and around 15C across northern England, but cooler across Scotland with highs of 11-14C widespread.
    22 April: A weakening band of frontal rain will move south-eastwards, with continued warm south-westerly winds. South and east of a line extending from Hull to Shrewsbury should be warm and dry with some sunshine, temps again reaching 20C in the south, and rather hazy. Much of northern England will be dull and wet all day. Drier brighter weather and highs of 14-16C will work its way southwards across Scotland.
    23 April: It looks like eastern areas will have a mostly dry sunny day, but with cloud amounts increasing from the west during the day, and rain spreading into western Britain by the end of the day, with freshening SSW winds. 20C will again be the high across south-east England, with 15-18C across most other parts, maintaining the above-average temperatures.
    24 April: The rain will linger in eastern areas, with another pulse moving north-east across central & southern England during the afternoon; highs of 15-18C in the warm muggy southeast, 13-15C to the north and west of the rainband. Western Scotland and Ireland will have sun and showers, intervening areas dry but rather cloudy.
    25-27 April: Sunshine and a few showers, and slightly above-average temperatures (12-16C) will give way to dry sunny settled weather as high pressure asserts itself; there is a good chance of this settled weather lasting into May and producing a heatwave at the beginning of the month.
  3. Thundery wintry showers
    At the University of East Anglia we have Wellbeing Week.

    Today, the main restaurant Zest appeared to cancel the roast dinner it normally provides on a Wednesday, providing "healthier" alternatives like rice, chicken, new potatoes etc.
    Now, since when was a roast dinner unhealthy, and burger and chips (which it had on offer yesterday, as is normal for Tuesdays) healthy?


  4. Thundery wintry showers
    I see a lot of posts, particularly in the Model Discussion, about "settled" weather. But what, specifically, is "settled" weather about? In my experience it means different things to different people- and most people's definitions don't entirely match the dictionary definition.
    Most of us, when we think of prolonged settled spells, imagine those weeks on end of clear blue skies, heat, absence of rain, and sunshine, like in the famous hot dry sunny summers, or the Mediterranean summers. But some people use "settled" as a synonym for "no rain", so perhaps a long dry spell like in August 2003, with a combination of dry sunny weather and dry cloudy weather, would qualify as a prolonged settled spell.
    Yet the dictionary definition of "settled" is, simply, not changeable. So, for instance, the two weeks of south-easterly winds, cloud and drizzle that Tyne & Wear experienced in March 1996 were a settled spell by that definition- as the weather hardly changed at all during those two weeks. Or even the week of near-continuous cloud and rain between 25 June-1 July 1997, again the weather hardly changed. Few call those "settled spells" though.
    There's also the consideration of whether you're looking at it from a weather type perspective, or synoptic perspective. From a synoptic perspective, rampant westerlies and fronts, with frequent changes in weather type, is generally regarded as a more "unsettled" pattern than a slack low or col bringing sunshine, showers and thunderstorms. Yet the daily weather is the opposite way round- the boisterous Atlantic often results in it being dull and wet, dry and sunny or dry and cloudy for several hours at a time, whereas with sunshine and showers, you often get frequent changes in the space of just one hour.
  5. Thundery wintry showers
    Having scanned through various motoring threads I regularly see the term "comfortable" bandied about. Of course, while it's being used with reference to the comfort of travelling in a car, it can equally apply to a train, bus or boat journey.

    When it comes to the actual seating and space, I have no arguments with the traditional definition. The more pleasant to sit in, and the more spacious, the more comfortable.

    But it's in ride quality where my definition of "comfort" seems to be distinctly unique. "Comfortable" in that sense usually means "as smooth as possible". I agree that being jolted over potholes and the like is pretty uncomfortable, though if just on a short trip I can derive pleasure from being thrown about as I would be on a rollercoaster.
    However, I can genuinely say that I find being gently rocked about [i]more[/i] comfortable than a ride where if I closed my eyes I'd hardly know I was moving. For instance, I find the clickety-clack of the Newcastle to Carlisle trains to be more comfortable than the ultra-smooth Virgin trains. Similarly, if well built, I often find cars with fairly stiff suspensions more comfortable to travel in than travelling in cars with soft suspensions, for much the same reasons. Yes, sometimes I can get out of such a car or train feeling like I'm still rocking about on a boat, but such a sensation is rarely troublesome and doesn't last long- it's not like the sea-sickness after being on a boat in stormy seas.

    But in practice it's just taken as given that a car with a stiffer suspension is less comfortable by definition, and thus less pleasurable to travel as a passenger in. Sometimes I really wonder if there's something wrong with me, as my instincts and preferences end up totally at odds with the accepted norm!
  6. Thundery wintry showers
    At the moment I think there is a 70% chance for eastern coastal parts of the North East (yes that means my area!) and 80-90% for inland parts of the region. The current snow cover doesn't look like thawing significantly until Christmas Eve, and unless that channel low gets far north enough on Christmas Eve to draw in a modified easterly, it probably won't thaw significantly on Christmas Eve either!

    In the coming days I expect many media forecasts to be expressing a desire for a warm-up by Christmas, so here's my latest revision to the "At least it will be mild" version of Bing Crosby's song:

    I'm dreaming of a mild Christmas,
    Just like the ones we usually know.
    Where the stratus glistens
    And children listen
    To hear south-westerlies blow.

    I'm dreaming of a mild Christmas,
    With every Christmas card I write,
    May your presents please every child,
    And may all your Christmasses be mild.

    Personally I am hoping that this snow does stick around till Christmas- but I won't mind if it melts on Boxing Day.
  7. Thundery wintry showers
    My Winter Snow Events file has been updated to cover Winter 2006/07 (I think it's unlikely that we will get any snow in the first half of May). With a score of just 11, Winter 2006/07 was the most snowless, along with 1997/98, since 1991/92.
    For those not 'in the know', the Winter Snow Events was largely inspired by L.Bonacina's 1875-1975 (recently extended to 2004) categorisation of past winters. I attempted more of a numerical/statistical analysis of the snowiness of past winters, aiming to include every snow event that occurred across lowland Britain for each winter, and awarding each snow event a score from 1-5 depending on how widespread and intense it was. The snow events for each winter are added together to give the winter's "score".
    Winter_Snow_Events.doc
  8. Thundery wintry showers
    An updated version of my "Winter Snow Events" analysis will be uploaded to N-W over the coming few weeks, based on a wider range of sources and overall casting the net much wider. There has been considerable "inflation" in the values for each season as a result, the average "snow score" has increased from the low 20s into the low 30s.

    Some brief (provisional) details to get the ball rolling:
    [list]* The winters prior to 1988 have been upgraded relative to the 1990s and 2000s (as I missed some snow events from the earlier years in my previous analysis) such that the period 1971-76 comes out with comparable amounts of snow to some of the winters since 1987. In particular 1972/73 came out with a similar total to 2003/04 and 2004/05. However, that 6-year period still had slightly less snow overall than the period 1988-2009.
    * Winter 2008/09 was only slightly above the 20th century average for snow, yet it was the snowiest winter overall since 1995/96, and the second snowiest since 1985/86.
    * All measures of "snowiness" have their issues, and the main issue with my method is that it measures occurrences of lying snow events rather than duration of snow cover. For example, by this measure 1978/79 was a snowier winter than 1962/63. The snowiest winter of the 20th century appears to have been the other famous one, in 1946/47.
    * The most snowless winter appears to have been 1991/92.
    [/list]
  9. Thundery wintry showers

    Work

    By Thundery wintry showers,

    At the moment, I am a week and a half into an 8-week break at home, before I go to University (again!) to do the PhD. It's both exciting and apprehension-inviting at the same time- I don't know what it will be like! However, since I'm going to be researching into the realms of meteorological statistics, the work is bound to be interesting regardless.
    Other than that, relaxing. It's been a relaxing year out, but at the same time, I've been finding that with regards 'work-life balance', it's possible to have too much 'life' and not enough 'work'! I found doing my MRes at Leeds gave rise to a suitable work-life balance- hopefully the PhD will be similar.
    Having read about a certain member of N-W's recurring job problems, ranging from 70-hour workweeks to emotion-sapping office dragfests, reminds me of what lots of people have preached to me over the years. "Your mentality of 'I want to pursue a career working in areas where I enjoy the work' will have to change." they say. "You'll learn that money has to be the top priority- the mentality should be 'I can put up with work I can't stand, as long as it pays well'. That's life- it's necessary because it's just the way it is."
    There are plenty of social norms that I can't stand, and this is certainly one of them. I'm very used to being at odds with the social norm, and it can be a risky business (delving into the unknown, and if you encounter resultant troubles, it's seen to be your fault for being different.) However, so far, I've done a pretty good job at dodging this one, and it looks hopeful that I should be dodging it successfully for at least three more years.
  10. Thundery wintry showers
    Why is it that all of the ills of society are blamed on working mothers? "Too many mothers are in work and not looking after the children, so children can't always rely upon Mum being there." say the masses. "We need to bring a return to the traditional family where the father goes out to work and the mother stays at home and looks after the children."

    Some suggest that we should have one parent stay at home irrespective of gender, but that would lead to the same result, as the mother is still expected to play the main role in bringing up the children- it would mostly be mothers who would stay at home.
    Some points:

    1. Most children who have two parents who work actually grow up to be good adults, and the ones who turn out badly-behaved, while clearly representing a major problem, are in the minority. And what about the kids brought up by single mothers who turn out reasonably behaved? As usual everyone are being made to suffer because of a minority.

    2. If a stay-at-home mum feels she is trapped, she is ruled by her husband and kids, her career sits in tatters and she has no life (which [i]can[/i] happen)- how is that going to be good for the kids? Quantity of time spent with Mum is important- but so is quality.

    3. If more employers were willing to offer flexible working patterns and chances for going part-time when bringing up young children where it was feasible, we'd get situations where parents could work, but work at different times so as to ensure that most of the time, at least one of them was available for the children.

    Giving mothers more scope to stay at home if they wish to is no problem, but I certainly don't want society to move in the direction of making mothers feel guilty if they work, as if it equates to child neglect. As per point 1 above, only in a minority of cases does this appear to be true.
  11. Thundery wintry showers
    The 2013 World Championship is underway. I'm particularly intrigued as to how Ronnie O'Sullivan will fare after his sabbatical from the sport, but if anyone can come back "rusty" and put in a fine performance, it would have to be him.

    I have the players as most likely to win the tournament as Neil Robertson, Mark Selby and Mark Allen. I think Judd Trump has been going into his shell a bit recently so he has slipped from my list of pre-tournament favourites.

    In last year's blogs I commented on who I regarded as the greatest player of all time, concluding that it was between Stephen Hendry and Ronnie O'Sullivan (I think Hendry has the edge as things currently stand, but O'Sullivan still has time to change that, if he can pick up some more ranking titles in the next 5 years or so).

    My top 10 all-time favourite players are:

    [b]#1- Jimmy White[/b]- found his all-out attacking style very entertaining in the early to mid 1990s in particular, shame he never won any of his world finals.
    [b]#2- Judd Trump[/b]- entertained me a lot during the 2011 World Championship, though if he keeps going into his shell (as he has in some recent matches) he might slip a few places on the list.
    [b]#3- Steve Davis[/b]- marvellous ambassador for the sport
    [b]#4- Stephen Hendry[/b]- admirable for his achievements, and entertained me with his attack-minded approach and desire to clear the table at every opportunity
    [b]#5- Ronnie O'Sullivan[/b]- a genius on the table, especially at break-building, the best "A" game that I've ever seen. I don't think he's quite as attacking as Jimmy White/Alex Higgins these days, but certainly up there with Hendry. Marred by attitude and off-table antics, but nothing like as bad for this as Alex Higgins.
    [b]#6- Mark Williams[/b]- for his laid-back attitude and ability to pull off spectacular long pots, always remembered for the black-ball final between him and Hendry in the 1998 Masters
    [b]#7- Mark Selby[/b]- involved in a lot of great matches, sometimes pulls off great shots
    [b]#8- Paul Hunter[/b]- sadly died of cancer at age 27, another attacking player, involved in some great matches in the Masters in particular
    [b]#9- Peter Ebdon[/b]- No, I haven't taken leave of my senses! He can certainly be dull to watch when he plays very slowly, but he has an unorthodox shot selection and intensity which, for me, has made him entertaining to watch in the past when playing relatively fluently, as he did when he won the 2002 World Championship.
    [b]#10- Dennis Taylor[/b]- for his role in that 1985 black-ball final, and as a pundit and commentator

    Also-rans:
    [b]Alex Higgins[/b]- almost as entertaining as Jimmy White but his off-table antics kept him out of my Top 10
    [b]John Higgins[/b]- involved in numerous exciting matches (e.g. 2006 Masters vs. Ronnie O'Sullivan)
    [b]John Virgo[/b]- I'm a fan of his commentary, but don't remember him as a snooker player
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