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Cat 5

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    Hurricane Predictions Atlantic 2010

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Hi Cookie,

    It seems the professionals are all hyping up the season yet again. I think they will all be disappointed yet again. There will probably be 1 cat 5 and yes, it may make landfall and cause massive destruction but overall I think it will be a below average season.

    To answer your questions...

    1, What month will Alex form? 2nd June 10

    2, Total number of Depressions? 13

    3, Name of the first hurricane? Colin

    4, Name of first cat 3 hurricane? Colin

    5, Name of first cat 5 hurricane? Gaston

    6, How many landfalls will the U.S have? 2

    7,How many Major Hurricanes will form? 1

    8, Name of strongest hurricane? Gaston

    9, What month will the last named storm form? Nov

    2008 Atlantic Hurricane Competition - Discussion thread

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted · Edited by Cat 5

    Interesting.

    The average number of Cat1+ hurricanes as predicted by Netweather is 10. Colorado State University predict 8. Average number of Cat3+ as predicted by Netweather is 4, CSU also predict 4.

    I have a full spreadsheet breakdown if anyone would like a copy. I may have to send you it via external email as I am struggling to post in any legible fashion on here.

    PM me with your email address if you would like a copy.

    2008 Atlantic Hurricane Competition - Discussion thread

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Yeah, I reckon that sounds good. Maybe the last one might need changing, most people would proabably manage to get a least 15 points there as there isn't usually a high number of major hurricanes. Perhaps 5 points for within 2? Then it would make an exact major hurricane prediction more worthy. It's pretty easy to be within 2 for a major hurricane prediction. Just a suggestion, it's up to you B)

    I suppose the way I scored it is because this will be one of the last opportunities to score points I would want a fair few to be on offer so the leaderboard can change right up to the last storm. I do think that less points should be on offer than for predicting the number of Cat3+ so will change it slightly. Thanks for the feedback.

    What I do think needs changing though is the reward for getting exactly right the amount of Cat1+... this is harder and only scoring 20 is a bit harsh. So I will change that to 30 if exact and 15 if within 3.

    Revised scoring is as follows;

    Date first named storm is formed: If you get this bang on then you score 50 points. Every day out that you are you will get two points deducted until you reach 0 points for this prediction.

    Last storm dissipated: As above.

    Name of strongest hurricane: 20 Points for exact. 15 points if you are 1 out (either way) and 10 points if 2 out (either way). 0 points if 3 or more out.

    Number of Hurricanes (Cat 1+): 30 points if you are exact. 15 points if you are with 3. 0 points if you are 4 or more out.

    Number of major Hurricanes (Cat 3+): 20 points if you are exact. 10 points if you are within 2. 0 points if you are 3 or more out.

    2008 Atlantic Hurricane Competition - Discussion thread

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Somerset Squall - thanks for reminding me!

    So this is the 5 areas in which we are predicting.

    Date first named storm is formed:

    Last storm dissipated:

    Name of strongest hurricane:*

    Number of Hurricanes (Cat 1+):

    Number of major Hurricanes (Cat 3+):

    I suggest point scoring as follows...

    Date first named storm is formed: If you get this bang on then you score 50 points. Every day out that you are you will get two points deducted until you reach 0 points for this prediction.

    Last storm dissipated: As above.

    Name of strongest hurricane: 20 Points for exact. 15 points if you are 1 out (either way) and 10 points if 2 out (either way). 0 points if 3 or more out.

    Number of Hurricanes (Cat 1+): 20 points if you are exact. 10 points if you are with 3. 0 points if you are 4 or more out.

    Number of major Hurricanes (Cat 3+): 30 points if you are exact. 15 points if you are within 2. 0 points if you are 3 or more out.

    How does this sound??

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