SnowStorm(Jamie)

I think the amber warning is more to do with the gusts of 50-60mph being more inland than perhaps usual, nothing exceptional here in Swansea gusts may peak at around 70mph in a few spots (mumbles for example) Still a powerful winter storm none the less with greater impacts towards NW Wales where peak gusts around 80-90mph.

The west and south west look fairly well placed for some snow showers tonight some of which will be heavy as shown on the latest ICON: AROME also showing some intense showers: I'll be a bit to far east here in Swansea, maybe Llanelli will cop the odd snow shower.

Some Met Office warnings in effect for the coming days mainly in the north and west: UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Latest ARPEGE shows a streamer during the early hours but it's mostly rain:

ICON shows some wintry showers overnight, nothing massive but a few spots in the west could get lucky. These will tend to become reserved to the far SW as winds veer more northerly. Latest models keep that low pressure for Wednesday to the south for now but still uncertainty.

Yep looks like the latest GFS has that low a bit further north again also. Perhaps the models are underestimating the shower activity over the Irish sea for us Monday/Tuesday, i remember years ago this use to be the case with some of the models but i imagine things have changed since then. Let's see if the ECM also brings that low a bit further north.

Looks like the winds will turn to the NW/NNW for a time with cold upper air running over the Irish sea, normally in these cases showers train across parts of NW/W/SW Wales but can push further inland, the ICON model has been picking up on these the last few days ive noticed, one to keep an eye on. The low pressure system on Wednesday looks unlikely to impact Wales now, going further south. That being said this mornings GFS does have it clipping the S/SE corner of the UK...