mildmuck
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Posts posted by mildmuck
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Looks like wind direction changing to more easterly later on , southern part of Brum possibly seeing a bit.
Not really expecting much from these showers if I'm honest.
Best chances for us will be later on in the week , we may have to wait for the Atlantic to make in roads.
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15 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:
Direct miss for the West Mids on their current line.
Humm , not sure I'd be taking to much notice of the BBC forecast, presumably that's what your referring to.
Winds will veer slightly throughout the night and into tomorrow, that low isn't helping the situation currently.
A lot of it will come down to radar watching.
Generally western areas don't do well initially from easterlies so any snow at this stage is a bonus.
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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
In fact, the GFS now gives a good all snow event on Friday as a result. Shame it probably won’t happen as I would expect it to continue to be pushed back westwards.
You've got to laugh though
It's doing what it does best over doing the shortwave, at one point forecasting snow/rain event for Friday on yesterdays 12z I believe.
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1 minute ago, andy_leics22 said:
Unfortunately, Worcestershire is not in a good location for an Easterly The best scenario is if a channel low can come along and throw up a band of PPN with it. Snow showers won't usually amount to that much, that far West. That isn't to say that you can't get lucky from a streamer, though.
Worcestershire is better placed for battleground scenarios.
Sadly a lot of it's low lying land , snow cover tends to melt rapidly, higher dew points- milder temps.
I'm not expecting much initially, will be later on in the week, maybe towards the end for us.
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1 hour ago, PolarWarsaw said:
We need to be looking more in the next 3/4 days for troughs and upgrades rather than worrying about T168 mate. It says a lot that this time period is the hottest of topics is weather at Day 7-8. We've spent weeks working towards the next 5 days and now we have arrived it's all as flat as a pancake for our area.
No doubt about it there will be a few showers and probably a surprise or 2 - but significant, this will not be for our area.
I'd sooner take a large snow event that lasted a day and turned back to rain/melted - than I would tonight's ECM, which is dry and then instead of being in the game for a battleground snowfall, we stay cold and frosty. Abysmal outcome. We might as well have had a Bartlett.
All this hype and weeks of chasing, for what is, in effect going to feel like a UK high for our neck of the woods.
It's cack.
I do not understand some of the negative posts today on this regional thread or on the model thread.
At times I've given up reading through it all , every single cold spell in the last 10 years has delivered some decent snow at least in these parts,
generally from atlantic - troughs/fronts some description. Most of them have been snowy breakdowns at least.
Models especially precipitation need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.
Get the cold in first.
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7 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:
Northen edge building now
Yeah looking a lot better.
Think the radars having some issues as I'm at the western edge of the band and theirs nothing showing on the radar.
Verging on a blizzard here really gusty winds.
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39 minutes ago, Winter80s said:
Not being reported by forcasters on 6pm forcast. Think West Mids will have a fresh fall.
Useless bunch , only took one look at Arpege and radar this morning to realise more than just a blob.
GFS has been consistently poor forecasting precipitation there probably using that or UKMO.
Snowing lightly as I speak, started covering pavements.
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Oww , would you look at that
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10 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:
Personally, I think the northern extent of the band will be Birmingham/Warwickshire but I hope i'm wrong!
The development looks more north than I originally had in mind.
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11 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
Look at the radar near London it's a developing situ plus someone tweeted John Hammond and he thinks it's gonna develop as it moves west
Yes, radars looking more interesting now. I'm not sure it will amount to much but it's certainly not over yet..
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Sadly temperatures are rising here, probably end up around 1/2c this afternoon I reacon.
A quick glace at radar this morning suggests to me that snow showers are in store for us late afternoon. Also models have a feature that darts across Southern counties later on. The northern extent of that appears to just about touching distance of Birmingham ?
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I'm struggling to make any sense of current radar down towards SE. I did take a look at the fax chart earlier but err ...
looking like right old mess.
Great to see north midlands finally getting in on the action.
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Just got back from a short stroll up Worcester rd , lovely and peaceful until some loud squealing engine parts - hazard warning lights come in view, cars front end completely smashed up moving along , his glum miserable face said it all. Sorry kiddo you didn't pick great evening to drive.
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Main rd out of Stoke Prior this morning...
Just about passable
*drifts 6 foot high!
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Spoke to soon like a blizzard now. Dangerous condition's, wouldn't surprise me if rural community's south of here are cut off come morning.
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14 minutes ago, weathernuts said:
Has been a memorable week in the Worcester area. Heavy snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday left a covering. Bitterly cold air late Wednesday followed by a real blizzard yesterday intensifying overnight.Difficult to say how much fell as there was a lot of drifting 2 foot drifts in suburban streets,unreal. Today being the icing on the cake still coming down now. Awesome for a low lying city.
I drove there this morning, you've had it much worse than here. Dread to think what it's like now. Reports on radio of roads completely impassable.
Blowing a gale here, light snow but still drifting.
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2 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:
Surely they have to issue an Amber warning this is getting really bad now and by far worse than yesterday. And 10 hours to go still.
It's quite heavy here too theirs still many rural villages cut off from drifting snow blocking roads. Honestly it's really bad. Never seen anything like it, Further south I drove worse it got.
I have seen more snow ploughs in my life than any time can remember today.
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Just come back from taking photos of 6 foot drifts and it's snowing again. If it carry's on like this we'll get a good dumping.
Guys this is so awesome
, make the most of it !
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Guys come on , this isn't over yet keep watching the radar.
Hardly got any on the ground here but still enjoying it.
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Can't remember last time I was this excited watching the radar.
Going back good few years now.
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Blowing- Moderate snow now !
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14 minutes ago, swipe said:
This has to be the most over-hyped non-event in weather history. I just want Spring to happen now to save on heating costs. This bitter cold with no snow does nothing for me.
Not really, as I said Monday the midlands isn't the best placed region for easterly's unless it's a really good one! (eg; 1991,1987) , it was met with laughter deathly silence on this forum!! , We rely on fronts other disturbances to bring us significant snow!, this generally happens at or near initial breakdown.
I'd advise everyone this morning to watch radar because i'm not buying Mets forecast.
Currently; Gales - blowing snow.
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Well didn't expect to see any snow today but was pleasantly surprised.
General consensus that the midlands don't do well from easterly's , that right ?
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, make the most of it !
Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
Position of streamer is critical , it's pretty much skimming top half of the m42 down to Worcester, it's track has now shifted slightly from what I can see.