[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward]

Light snow falling here 2.5c

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

for goodness sake, get a grip the two of you. Yes, there are fluctuations and variability in climate - always have been and always will be (remember a few years back we were told our children would never see snow?!). If AGW is to blame, how do you explain recent climate change on other planets in the solar system?!

The climate IS changing - better look at the decay of our magnetosphere and simultaneous upcoming grand solar minimum. Human pollution and environmental destruction is bad, and needs to stop - but there are other, bigger things going on with the climate.

In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

 

Just giving my views - why is this forum so confrontational - I have a very firm grip thank you!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

2 things I don’t want to do now - firstly to suggest that winter is over now (my more pessimistic recent posts have been guilty of that) and secondly to ignite a debate on AGW.

But we do need to accept that globally things are happening that are more than just better/more media reporting. The cold in Chicago is exceptional. The heat in Australia was the same. Last year’s SSW shredded the vortex and created a really dramatic tropospheric reversal of a kind I don’t think we have seen before. This season we had an SSW that produced a 23 day reversal at 10hpa which makes it a top 3 event at that level. We have MJO forecasts that are wildly variable (more than usually so) and a global SST picture that is increasingly painting the globe yellow/red in above average readings. Arctic sea ice is in summer crisis, and let’s not forget a very odd QBO event in the last few years (2016?) that turned an easterly to a westerly without warning.

Th bottom line is that unusual and extreme weather is getting more common, and possibly our models are going to be increasingly stretched in trying to take them into account. Is low sea ice going to begin a pattern of more high lat blocking in autumn which then triggers more vortex perturbation? How will this interact with a trend towards lower solar influence perhaps over the next cycle? 

I could go on at length, but won’t. My children get bored when I start talking weather, but their generation may well be increasingly subject to these extremes. And I’m convinced - a big and very cold UK winter is on the horizon somewhere in the next 5 - 10 years because of the growing list of extreme pre conditions. And perhaps it is therefore time to view any medium to longe range NWP with more suspicion than normal.

Great post! A sign of things to come - is it these extremes that the models fail to get to grips with? Will they have to be re-calibrated to factor in such events as they become the norm? In an increasingly volatile climate will we have to find new ways to forecast our weather?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

And finally it's snowing in South East Devon!! Temp still falling, now 1.7c

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

8 minutes ago, Barbel said:

Not now Timer - get out and about if you can!

Mmmmm - very wet sleet here in Colyton. 2.3c

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

STILL rain here, temp 2.6c

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

still raining but temp dropping - now 3.3c

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Still raining in East Devon, still 4.1C

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

4.1C just stared raining East Devon 2 miles from coast

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Some heavier showers edging in to Cornwall on radar - showing as snow.

Also large area of snow showers tracking across Ireland in our direction, south west forecast mentions frequent showers tonight.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Still raining here, temperature now dropping, 3.7C

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Cold rain just started here. Temp 4.4C

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Just planted my runner beans and french beans - taking a chance but they were getting really huge in growhouse!

It's a fine line this time of the year - all that hard work producing the plants and jack frost undoes it all!

Next few days looking good though - hopefully give the plants a chance to acclimatise.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Two yellow warnings for rain in SW now in force for today/tomorrow and Sunday/Monday!

And cold with it!

Allotment saturated, spring sowing/planting way behind this year.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Yellow warning now in force for SW until tomorrow. With more rain forecast over next few days flooding could well be an issue.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Some photos of snow today in and around Colyton.

Easing off now - probably 10cms plus. Temperature rising a tad  +0.3C now

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Still snowing here in East Devon. Probably 10-15cms. Daffodils looking very sorry for themselves in garden!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

No more wet and cold weather now please! Allotment is saturated, onion sets are sprouting, potatoes chitting, seeds are now seedlings!!

We need some proper spring weather, a bit of sun and some dry days! It's all going to be 2/3 weeks behind as it is................

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

4 minutes ago, Barbel said:

Snowing again now after freezing rain this morning, local River Coly photo attached too for your collective pleasure!!

 

 

Great photo - seen the river flooded but never frozen!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Spring on hold...............................!!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Result of freezing rain here in East Devon.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

They are so over rated sweety ;-)

Funniest thing I have read all day!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Heavier here now - fine snow grains blowing in a strengthening wind. Temp -2.4C

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Light snow now falling here. Main snow area few miles south of Lyme Bay

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

9 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Guess a long time holiday haunt of mine, Stoke Fleming, just outside Dartmouth woulfdve been hit today? My bro has a house in SF, where he stays every w/e.

Should imagine SF did okay today! Nothing here in Colyton - been watching the line of showers all day, they have been stuck on the channel by-pass a few miles off shore!! A traffic jam of snow!