HotCuppa
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Posts posted by HotCuppa
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On 10/02/2017 at 12:44, mark blackpool said:
Great stuff, you don't see forecasts like that very often, 96 was a good year for snow for the North West, there was this, the feb event and another snow event in the November if I remember correctly!
what we had was a polar low that ended up in the Irish sea which then fed us copious amounts of snow. That winter was cold anyway, from the frequent Northerly outbreaks.
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8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
Crosby has a microclimate all of its own.
it most certainly does which i find very strange given your very close proximity to the coast and the warmth from the irish sea.
2.7C rising slowly
dp -0.6C rising.
Precip: Dry
Cloudy 8/8 Oktas
Wind: 0mph
Gusts 5 min avg 1mph
Humidity 81%
Baro : 1025.3mb falling slowly
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It's been like this since at least 02:00 this morning, and nothing here. got to be a cosmic joke
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51 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Are you talking about just your location? It doesn't tally with my observations, I find forecasters generally underestimate snowfalls on an easterly at least around this area. Classic forecast of the odd flurry of old tend to be more than that.
As for uppers of -12, we had snow flakes falling here with above 0C in that perishing southerly wind on that last Thursday of January, also we had wet snow at sea level last November despite unspectacular uppers. I actually made a comment that it was weird seeing wet snow with unremarkable uppers and the fact the wind flow was coming from the Irish Sea.
You are much further inland than I am. I am close to Widnes / Runcorn which puts me on the Estuary and really not that far from the bay of Liverpool. I was doing some temperature comparisons between here and Crosby, and was shocked to discover that over the last 4 years, on average Crosby near the coast has actually been colder during the second part of winter. I have no valid explanation of why that is. Even Liverpool airport was going to for a rain / snow / sleet mix. In actual fact it's never done any of these things really, unless you count a few blowing snowflakes that tapered off very quickly, did not cover anything.
For the record here imby snow and frosts, it really has been rather poor:
2013 Snow fell on 19 November, the earliest in a decade but that was it, we had flurries that never produced any kind of covering, just blowing in the wind. 2014, 26 December, Boxing day, Liverpool airport closed because of 4cm of snow, re-opened lunch time. We have had a grand total of 12 frosts since 2013. The average is supposed to be around 52 days (nights) from November through until the very beginning of April. So 12 frosts is shockingly low in 4 years. Bare in mind this is my location rather than elsewhere, strangely Liverpool airport as not fared any better either. 3 of those frosts have come this winter, all ground frosts. It's also been a relatively dry winter too, compared to many previously, obviously brought on by the blocking. The Irish sea can have very strange effects on the weather. It can be snowing where you are, and pouring down in rain here.
We can only hope that things improve, before the end of winter, it's been very dissapointing for the kids to say the least.
on a different note solar low occurs this year, so next winter could look really interesting, if what happened in 2010 /11 2011/12 happened! fingers crossed.
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19 hours ago, cheshire snow said:
Morning all
A few flakes blowing around in the breeze..who says we cannot get snow from an Easterly
Ironically tomorrow will feel like the coldest day of this so called cold snap with a stronger wind.showers will also be more frequent and heavier,more of a wintry mix than snow though.
Edit
Sun is now out
C.S
you dont get snow from an easerly unless your east of the pennines or on a tract that doesn't have the pennines in the way unless your very fortunate. Unfortunately for those within 20km or so of Liverpool bay are pretty much stuck because of the higher terrain all around it. The pennines, welsh mountains, even the higher terrain directly to the North stop the snow. The best locations for snow, can be either a NW prefabably because there is nothing to stop the snow getting through, and the irish sea creates a streamer...or exceptionally cold air from the east bumping into milder moist air from the west.
Pretty much all the moisture / precip has to come from those directions, unless you dont have hills around you taking that moisture away. Also one of the other things here of note, is that we wont see snow below -12C upper air, again most probably because of the Irish sea having some kind of interaction on it. That being said, everything that has blown through here as been coldish dry air. Certainly not the kind of cold I would say is anything other than a little chilly, still in response to your post over 20 hours ago, nothing has really changed in this respect, a lot of cloud with no moisture has flown by overhead, not even a frost.
EDIT: As I type this, it has just started to snow for the first time, kind of strange given this snow on the radar as been over over for many hours.
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The snow has only just reached us on this radar, but there is not a flake to be seen, not that won't be,
but you have to wonder why there is nothing but according to the radar it should be snowing. If this was
rain on the radar, it would be pouring it down.I wonder how much moisture is in these clouds, just went outside the backdoor, it definitely feels a lot colder
than it did a few hours ago, looking at the radar, its a perfect set up for hours and hours of snow, instead it just
seems to be passing by overhead. Not even wet outside. I wonder whats up with the sleet off the north coast
of Scotland, that wasn't there last night, and its colder tonight 0.o
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3 hours ago, Chris.R said:
If i'm being pedantic, the Wirral from Birkenhead to new Brighton, also the east coast of the Isle of Man.
Lol
I would have said formby up to southport.
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Temp 1.8C slowly rising
DP -1.3C and rising
Wind 7 knots overnight 9 knots, obviously prevented any kind of frost.
Cloudy 8/8
Liverpool airport have been going for rain initially followed by snow showers since midnight, before becoming partly cloudy from mid day onward.
Currently have lower than -10 C upper air, with little to no moisture. In fact what we really need is something hitting us from the Northwest, rather than an easterly
which just usually brings nothing but cold dry air to this area. It's a real pity that the direction of the light snow is from the East and it now appears to be
moving in a slight Southwesterly fashion, although it could be deceiving my eyes, but that is what it looks like.As long as the DP remains below -1C there is always some hope, but i'd like to see some precip try to edge in from the NW against this cold air mass, otherwise
it might as well not even be there. Perfect conditions for snow.You can see where the really cold air, towards the west and spine of the country at 09:00 z this morning
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:
There's always spring snowfall.. many a mild winter with little snow has tended to produce a spring thereafter with a wintry potent surprise. Even last year we had heavy wet snow settle on 30 April! Spring 2008 produced a couple of decent snowfalls here one on Easter Day and one on the 6 April after a snowless winter.. April 1998, 1999 and 2000 produced potent northerlies with snow cover here as well, after three very poor winters for snowfall.Going further back ditto April 1989, ditto March/April 1975, all after very mild snowless winters.
Whilst spring snowfalls do tend to be blink and miss it affairs then can pack a punch, indeed the UK is more likely to see synoptics conducive for snow in March and April, as easterlies and northerlies are far more likely then. Early March 1995 was very wintry as well again after another very poor winter for snow..
Its never wise to throw in the towel by the end of Feb on snow prospects..
we have more chance of white easter than we do of a white christmas.
The last 4 winters here in imby have been abysmal. Even the cold is more or less Mild given the temperatures it should be and compared to everywhere else. The significant lack of snow, despite this year going down across the Nordics and Europe in general as one of the snowiest...and we can't even muster a stinking flake of the stuff for the kids.
Later this year we are moving to Finland, where snow is guaranteed away from the South coast, where cold actually gets cold, and the kids can play out in the stuff as long as they like. This weather is far to benign and boring across this area, one day is pretty much identical to the next day and so on. I just hope we can muster some snow before or by easter, as we have done before on a number of occasions.
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Forecast for Hale, Cheshire, Not Manchester.
Occasional snow showers after midnight effecting Hale and the West Cheshire area.
Accumulation is likely to be very small, maybe 1 or 2cm at the very most by dawn.The interesting thing about this snow, is that it's managing just to get passed the pennines, probably because there is a lot of snow
packed behind it, with a moderate easterly wind pushing it on, so while it would normally dissipate over the pennines, it's being
constantly refuelled.I'd have no problem removing the pennines
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Liverpool airport eventually going for snow. Cold air as failed to reach here yet, but it will soon.
Temp 4.6C
Dew Point 2C
Liverpool Airport 6.3C
Dew Point 2C
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16 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:
A beautiful winters day here,my hunt for snow is now been put on
The back burner for another year,my attention now turning to
Spring warmth,but in the law of sod,it would not surprise me to
See a cold spell and snow in March
C.S
You have more chance of a white Easter then a white Christmas in this country, but the way and how bad it has been down here this winter....better start getting used to the idea winter is done (never started, or it's delayed and we get winter in spring time)...a few cold days, but thats nothing unless there is snow on the deck for the kids.
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This is the worst winter i have ever recorded in 20 years.
these are the stats imby throughout this entire winter.
Snow: 0cm not even a dusting, very wet light snow which would not stick due to exceptionally warm pavements.
Ground frost: 1, Air frost 1 but nothing during January and February.
Average temperature +8C throughout December, January and so far February
This winter has seen the highest snowfalls across the Northern Hemisphere...and yet 0cm imby....something is very wrong!
Later this year we are moving to be with family in lapland Finland permanently. Snow guaranteed at least 6/7 months a year..
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2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:
Just woke up. Snowing heavily with big flakes!
Just as I said it was heading your way. Maximum extent was Aigburth, heaviest snow this side of them, but it's turned to very light stuff now, ending very soon as in a few minutes here. Its mostly over your side now. its funny because its showing snow as sleet on the radar..and its been doing that all night long, so much for the GFS
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Just now, cheshire snow said:
Rain tonight for us Tonight/Tomorrow HC?
C.S
not had time to check, need some coffee fuel first before i think of anything haha , how long can we hold on to the cold air? Frontal snow is difficult to even think about.
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I should think this light snow will stop soon, it picked up a bit, then it's just petered out back into very light snow now.
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the crazy thing is , its moving from SW - NE thats probably why a number of places west have missed it, Aigburth was probably it's most western segment of snow producing clouds, should reach Runcorn soon if not already
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we still have light snow here in West Cheshire
EDIT: it seems to be picking up a bit more now.
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Snow overnight heavy at times, we have light snow now. Surfaces have seen melt, cars still have snow on them. Measured 2.2cm, roads and pavements pretty much clear along with roof
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2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
Temp is stuck at 1.7c. In theory that should just about be ok. Certainly feels more conducive out their now.
The dew point is more important for snow. Heavy precipitation will lower the temperature without a problem.
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1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:
PPN incoming for the south of the region
C.S
I just hope its heavier enough to lower the dp's around here, otherwise there is going to be some crying soon from some people.
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Just had a very light snow shower, amounted to nothing, surface is wet.
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Just now, mark blackpool said:
Snowing here, no breeze at all, albeit fairly light there are some big flakes mixed in, sticking instantly to all surfaces
This is exactly what we want to hear, for those living west of the M6
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1 minute ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:
Evening HotCuppa, whats your friend at the airport said about the forcast and what is the taf saying?
Taf says rain to snow
my friend says snow later. I am unconvinced despite his track record, things just don't look or feel right with whats going on. Some really crazy stuff going on. the front has stalled, there is back fill from the Irish sea going on, and we may see some snow from 8/10pm. I said earlier some kind of miracle needs to happen, well so far, the temps and dp's in some places have started dropping, some people are seeing flakes of snow. I have not see anything, and there is no precipitation over me, which might be a blessing in disguise, since we really need the dp's and wet bulb temperatures to drop below freezing. at the moment we are the wrong side of marginal. I have no idea where you are, so I don't know if the forecast applies to yourself or not.
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North West England Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
in my part of the world, there are the Northern Hills to our North, there are the pennines to the east, and peak district too, which stop pretty much everything dead reaching here. Then we have the Welsh mountains which also do a job in stop any snow from reaching here.
This next winter coming, will also happen to coincide with the lowest solar minimum in over a century, the lowest number of sunspots ever recorded since 1755. how that will play out in the upcoming winter 2017/18 is anyone's guess but it could be a good one, although i would have thought this year would have been good to due to low solar minimum.