[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion Rhan]

Look at the 850 wind vectors showing the ppn driving around the low into Wales - tasty.

That's what i was looking at.......it looks as though (as you say) swinging round heading right for us...............fingers crossed eh !!!!

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion Rhan]

It will all join up.

I hope your right.......................we just had an hour of wet snow but it didn't really settle....

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion Rhan]

How long can we expect the snow? small flakes but still heavy, although not as heavy. Im hoping that as its getting darker and we go into the night, it wont turn to sleet or anything :S

looking at the radar the main band seems to be further south away from Wales....Am i reading this right or not ????

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Just taken this from the South West thread....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

sounds promising.......

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Thicknesses are not as important in these situations, as there is embedded cold over the country. This is looking very good for a snow event for most, slightly more marginal on the coast as always. But I think our altitude makes a big difference.

This reminds me of 2 other situations Feb 96, where there was 18 inches of snow in Ebbw Vale, and 4 inches here, but next to nothing at sea level.

To a lesser extent the snow event in Feb 07, which gave 4-5 inches here and froze overnight to give a picture postcard scene however it rained then in the morning following.

Always cautious of these situations but if NAE says a says cover that's good enough for me.

In the models today it is very pleasing that the upper air temps remain below freezing for the duration of the event.

Today's models look very promising. and For Inland looks superb.

Are we likely to see any tonight do you think ?

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

raintoday radar appears to be trying to say that the precip is changing more to sleet as it comes into wales - I don't believe that for a minute mind and I've seen the way this particular radar's reliability isn't always spot on

yeah, just noticed that too....I don't know how reliable rain today radar is either.....

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

front is coming along nicely - won't be long now - shows no real sign of degrading - and is pushing into south and mid wales lovely - so hold onto your hats

Looking heavy aswell by the radars being posted

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

If that's swindon way then that is the snow that's heading our way now

Yes that's it.........

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Reports on South WEst thread of Snow....Anybody know if any of this is likely to head our way ???

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

I note the bbc news wales page has a story saying warning dropped but forecasters still say 2 -5cm overnight possibly 10cm on higher ground. Perhaps I wont quite top my self yet...

woody

lol

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

I missed the met expending the snow forcast for monday. It now covers the whole of wales (i think).

as someone said, all rather confusing. it has howevr been snowing here for 5 hours now, but nothing really laid.

woody

New Warnings on the MO website ---->

Heavy Snow1200 Tue 120600 Wed 13There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of southwest England and South Wales.

A band of heavy snow will move slowly northeast during Tuesday afternoon and the first part of Wednesday before dying out. Accumulations of 5 to 10cm are expected widely, with 10 to 20cm possible locally, and a low risk of up to 30cm over higher ground. The strengthening southeasterly wind is also likely to lead to drifting of snow.

This could cause disruption to travel networks and lead to problems with power lines.

Issued at: 1358 Sun 10 Jan

Trouble is - Don't know whether to believe this now.........................

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Cheers for the explanation......

As i put in a previous note, really nowcasting is the most accurate as things change so quickly as this has proved.......

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

http://forum.netweat...0entry1734002

Good article today from John.

It is the Atlantic Ocean. If the GFS verifies then your analysis is not far off, but if the UKMO is right, then snow is far more likely, and that is why BBC forecasts heavy snow for many.

Thanks for that

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Can anyone advise as to what has been the main significant change for the forecastsers to now change their minds on this ???

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Country Tracks very interesting, showed heavy snow for much of Wales for Tuesday, perhaps more marginal for extreme coastal ahead. Generally staying cold or very cold after this but less in the way of frost due overnight due to increased cloud and wind.

Indeed embarrassing for the Met Office, their charts (NAE) never really suggested more than say 2-5cm generally, perhaps 10-15cm on hills.

The best way to look at it, is how quickly things can change.........who knows it may change again ??? Here's hoping

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

I went upto the A470 today to Tredegar to see the snow, very much a contrast from the hill past Glynneath into a Winter Wonderland.

Where is that forecast from?

BBC says Ammanford and Port Talbot is heavy Snow - Mrmonopoly talking poop again

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

It does look like they are having trouble with the graphics- should be corrected at times like this though i think

A blind man can predict more than the BBC........ they are terrible......god knows where they get their forecasts from

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Based on the 12Z output from GFS and UKMO, we're heading for a real, full-on Blizzard Tuesday onwards.

All might change of course, so don't get you're hopes up (or down!) too much just yet, there's still plenty of room for change.

I'm gonna just stick to looking out of the window....this is the only guarantee.........................on wednesday its either gonna be blazing sunshine or blizzards going by the forecasts today on here...

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

yep - and the drifting from the easterly winds will pile it up too

Nice, nothing worse than when its starts snowing and stops after 5 minutes......

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Yes I reckon we should see the first snoflakes falling from this system around midnight tonight right through. We still have flakes blowing in the wind have done all day it's been very seasonal must admit.

I hear the snow is going to be light but consistent, in your opinion can this sometimes be better than a short burst of heavy snow or not ???

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

amazing difference between sky weather and bbc sky forcasting several inches across south wales starting 9 pm tonight bbc appear to be showing nothing

Noticed this too....it is ridiculous how they can be so different.....BBC as basically saying we will have nothing....SKY are saying we will have quite a bit...

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Cardiff could see most snow fall for years tonight.

Is it stll snowing in Cardiff....few cms here in Barry now....

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

OMG ALREADY AN INCH HERE IN CARDIFF, COLLEGE WILL BE CLOSED SURELY.

I work in Cardiff....need to travel in there in the morningfrom Barry....or maybe not....lol

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

snowing!!!!!!

Not a cloud to be seen in Barry....let alone a snowflake.....

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Looks Brilliant for a lot of people. You chaps in the East enjoy

IM not going to ask for snow now, as it sets you up for a fall. Its typical tho aint it. I wont be awake at 3am preying. What I didnt think was if we all cross the 7 bridge in a max exodus, and we all sorta like blow at the same time we could cause enough of a ripple to bring it further west and then follow it down the M4 with some fans or summin

How are we looking here in Barry....Anything ????