David, perhaps you have already addressed some of these points, but I didn't see them mentioned... The consensus seems to be that the Pacific has shifted to its longterm -PDO phase. As I'm sure you know, that favors La Nina develpment and tends to work against El Nino development. In addition, the last ten years have seen an unusual number of El Ninos, with events in 1998, 2002-03, 2004-05, and 2006-07. How do these factors relate to your El Nino forecast, if at all? With the case of Pinatubo, at least, I'm afraid you are wrong. Global temperatures were actually running quite warm in 1991 before Pinatubo erupted, and afterwards they plunged mightily. Pinatubo clearly was the cause, as the solar cycle was still high and El Nino conditions existed in the Pacific.