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Posts posted by JT Texas
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Actually, they're afraid it will float off. Seriously.
Just had to add this pic - someone has tied their tree to a car so the tree won't blow away -
When is the next advisory?
Here it is:
WTNT44 KNHC 122031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART
TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH
TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS
THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.
IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER
LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.
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Looks like one of the rigs that was registering the highest winds (91.3 knots from the SE) has flatlined and is repeating the same info for the past couple of hours - Station 42361.
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Here's the projected totals from local news once the storm passes (from abc13.com):
Projected Storm Surge Impact
*572,000 people within storm surge area
*6 drinking water plants impacted by storm surge
*34 wastewater treatment facilities impacted by storm surge
*54 Police Stations, 89 Fire Stations, and 32 Ambulance services impacted by storm surge
*10 Hospitals with more than 10 beds impacted by storm surge
*47 Nursing Homes impacted by storm surge
*7 wire centers impacted by storm surge
*140 electric power substations impacted by storm surge
*48 non-nuclear generating units impacted by surge
*10 industrial plants including oil refineries and chemical plants are co-located with 41 generators impacted by storm surge
Projected Electric Power Outage Impact
*5.2 million customers may lose power in Texas
*99 drinking water plants in electric power outage area (only 14 plants serve more than 50,000)
*More than 1,500 wastewater treatment facilities are located in electric power outage area
*799 Police Stations, 1,973 Fire Stations, and 641 Ambulance Services within electric power outage area
*256 Hospitals with more than 50 beds within electric power outage area.
*1,263 Nursing Homes within electric power outage area
Projected Petroleum and Natural Gas Sector Impacts
* 95% of Gulf of Mexico oil and natural gas production suspended
*1.25 million bbl/day of oil production, 6% of U.S. petroleum demand
*6.9 Bcf/day of natural gas production, 11% of U.S. daily average natural gas demand
Posted by KTRK on September 12, 2008
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Indeed...although I gather the eye-formation and intensification is associated with the various inflow bands being pulled further into the centre and eventually these convective structures get cut-off from the main vortex. But it has reduced quite considerably and whether this will affect the degree of storm surge will be quite interesting.
Showing 9.24 ft. of water (above mean low water level) in front of seawall at 2:18 CDT, 9/12/2008. Low tide shows about 7-8 PM, high time 3-4 AM. Winds 25 knots, gusts 39.
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Pier sensor failed, now showing backup sensor. Water has rised to 9.33 ft. above MLLW. Winds @ 20 Knots, Gusts to 40. (Readings in front of the Galveston seawall 13:42 CDT 9/12/2008).
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Seawall is about 17 ft. tall, 16 ft. thick at base, curved front, with base about 2 - 3 ft. above normal high tide, curved reinforced concrete, concrete sidewalks, curbs, street. Roadway on top slopes back toward the top of the seawall, so another foot or so increase in elevation, and grade continues sloping back toward the top of the seawall another 100 feet or so, depending on what year the section was built.
http://www.gthcenter.org/exhibits/seawall/index.html
It's not it's first hurricane.
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The rising water prior to the arrival of the hurricane force winds was a major cause of deaths in the 1900 storm - now (9/12/2008 10:30 CDT) at the seawall GPST2 showing only winds NNE at 15 knts (gusts to 23), but with 8 feet of extra water.
Water would soon be too high to move on most of the island.
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Here is a mean sea level measure, about fifty or sixty meters in front of the seawall.
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.s...sure+Pier%2C+TX
Hurricane Ike---Human Impact
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
8771510 is showing only 8 ft. of water against the seawall. winds at 27 knots, gusts to 52. It will get worse, but not necessarily over the seawall. In fact, the only area that might not flood is the area immediately behind the seawall, where the grade raising took place.
However, a surge at 6 plus feet is moving up the Houston ship channel, showing at the Battleship Texas mooring.