weatherwise
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Posts posted by weatherwise
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We had steady, but wet snow ever since 8 am — it's still lying on the verges and places where the ground was still cold from the frosts of a couple of nights ago. Good to see snow before Christmas, like it's getting its hand in for January/February.
Its now snowed here 5-10 days before Christmas for the last 3 years - nothing like last year of course when we still had a few inches on the ground on the big day.
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Still some snow sitting on the Dunstable Downs http://www.dunstablehpc.co.uk/images/weather/dunnycam.jpg
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A frustrating place to live agree!!!
I remember several falls of snow in the 80s and 90s in Norfolk and after I left Norfolk in 1996 there were a number of heavy falls (the result of northerly winds, frequent showers) that got to about Wymondham and then fizzled out during the 2000s when it was practically completely snowless in inland 'East Anglia'. You are just going through a bit of a drought of late (I know 09/10 and 10/11 were not as good as here for instance).
Well this snowwatch has been fun - heres to the next one -may be a few wintry showers tonight/this weekend but goodness knows when the next snow event will be, no sign on any models - so maybe mid Jan earliest?
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as i speak it is sticking to cars but that is about it
the NAE upgraded the snow for the majority of the east midlands but, people are saying they have rain
This is what its like in Luton (annoying ad to skip at the start) http://lutonlive.com/ - not a great deal more really.
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Where is here?
Thats odd. I'm in Bedford (right in the middle) and its been snowing for a few hrs. , Just a slushy few mms sticking to cars, rooves etc. Snow still falling, a teensy bit more than I expected actually.
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Oh well - I'm not going to look at any more forecasts. Just wait and see if there's any snow come tomorrow morning. I imagine there will be some flash warnings issued if this develops like the NAE indicates because even 2-5cm of snow (what the NAE is indicating, remember the MetO/BBC forecasts etc run straight off the NAE) would cause big problems
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18z NAE much better for snowfall prospects for this region:
It has pushed things further northwards (I had suspected, as posted in the SW england thread earlier, that things were going a bit too far south - the NAE did exactly the same thing with the mid december channel shortwave last year, correcting northward at the last moments)
Even then, the northward extent of the precip observed at 2100GMT is about 20 miles further north than projected even by the 18z NAE for that timeframe - so there or there abouts I would say now with the track on the NAE.
SK
yep. said this would change right up to +0. Even an inch or two on the ground in the west of our region come morning on the latest projection http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/15/basis18/ukuk/weas/11121609_2_1518.gif
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Im not sure just looked at the weather for Garston on MetOffice & I dont even have snow at 6am, it says rain, sleet at 9am and light snow at 12
Thats because thats what the latest models show - they (the auto forecasts on MO website) run direct off the NAE (links elsewhere in this thread) and UKMO/ ECM for longer term.
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tell me about it, it is so frustrating seeing them getting plastered whilst here in bedford i get a bit of slush, though last december we did get a lot of snow for once.
wonder what our chances are of snow tonight
Yeh last December was a bit different I think - the Met Office actually had a red emergency warning out before it hit. I think this time we are looking at a few snowflakes if we're lucky. Could be wrong though. Its not even going to get below freezing, thats one problem (on the day, 18th Dec 10, it snowed big last time the temperature was comfortably in the snowable temperature range, at or below freezing - we were in the grip of a proper and rare freeze)
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I live on quite low ground so i doubt i will see any of the white stuff maybe down the road in luton might get lucky
Yep wouldn't be surprised if Luton Airport cancelled a few flights tomorrow morning. I live in Bedford and used to work in Luton, it would often snow there but not in Bedford.
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The very very latest model (12z NAE) pushes the snow a little (about 10-15 miles?) further into our region
However not settling anywhere in our region (this is the max - http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/15/basis12/ukuk/weas/11121609_2_1512.gif)
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So has the precipitation moved further South that we were supposed to be getting overnight tonight, anyway hope we all still have a chance of some snow falling.
Yes, it has - basically if you are in the orange area then you have a reasonable chance of some snow settling - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html
The chief forecasters view for the orange area:
An area of low pressure will cross southern Britain with rain turning to snow on its northern and western flank. Surfaces will be wet, so snow will take an hour or two to accumulate, but when it does, 2-5 cm is possible at low levels with 10 cm over higher ground.
Rain may turn to snow across more southeastern parts of England, including the London area, during Friday morning, but most will not settle, except over the highest ground.
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NNM models are showing snow for us. Check out Liams post on the atlantic thread...looks ok for our area, but that is just one model....
If you've got a bit of height in Borehamwood, you certainly have a chance. The latest models out (particularly NAE) seem to indicate most of the precipitation is to our south now. NAE says couple mms (would be 2cms if all of it was snow and settled - unlikely) and GFS only slightly more (3-5mm). Runs before this were indicating 10+mm of precip which I think increased our chance of the rain turning to snow and sticking.
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06z NAE out and that 60 mile variance 'MKsnowangel' mentions is highlighted by the fact that no snow is forecast in our region now (may be far SW Bucks) http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=30&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=
In fact just a few mms of rain seems the most we can hope for. Still time for it to change, but the low is further south.
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Yep its a nowcasting event, not pure good honest snow but a wintry mix affair where some could do well (Chilterns?). The 0z NAE extends the snow risk a bit http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/15/basis00/ukuk/prty/11121612_2_1500.gif
Now we wait for the 6z to change it again :smilz38:
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The 18z NAE doesn't look very good. Les snowy for our region (not that the 12z was snowy outside 3 counties) http://www.weatheron...P=0&INFO=0&WMO=
It will change again later, and then back etc.
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Bear in mind this is very knifedge, as tiny changes in the track of that low will make all the difference between rain/snow (or not much precip at all) and gales (or less) or severe gales (or worse).
I have been an avid follower on here and TWO for years now but post fairly rarely - and I have too say, this is probably the most marginal event I've seen in that time, for my area that is. I live about 7 miles directly west of cambridge in the countryside (which can often get snow when the city is too warm), what do people think the chances are for snow here on friday? I assume that snow will fall at some stage either during the night or day with this event, but I realise it could come at the tail end and accumulate to nothing, or start overnight and produce a substantial fall. The thicknesses, strength of precipitation, evaporative cooling and inland, rural location give me and advantage - but I may be 50 odd miles too far to the East/South for the proper cold to arrive in time. Can anyone else offer any advice?
Hello! Its one of those annoying 'wait and see' things. Have been a number of marginal events in recent years for our neck of the woods! (usually its just dry rather than rain instead of snow I find). This has potential, but for certain none of the forecasts will get it 100% right, especially this time. More 'wait and see' than usual.
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A worrying looking chart for our region, esp the coasts http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/14/basis12/ukuk/pslv/11121609_2_1412.gif
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The latest NAE model (which proved good last year I think) is estimating some snow (settling too) for Friday morning in the west of our region. I think these charts will chop and change so by no means certain
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Hi Mksnowangel,
I was in your neck of the woods on Saturday, very busy due the Red Bull event. Sitting here watching the pressure going down although I can't hear much wind so far and to think this time last year little did we know that in a few days time we would be having one of the best snow events in many years.
Fingers crossed that the snow arrives soon.
Chris
Indeed. wasn't it good. Will keep my pics in my sig for some time I think.
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Yeh and being selfish (here in Beds) I'd actually like to know whats going on in Northants (and other surrounding counties) so I have to check the Midlands and SE also. Oh, to be back in Norfolk, at least you know where you are
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with this storm coming and after looking at the model section have we got be be on the look out now , after the great storm a few years ago
I would say there is a chance of a storm tracking close to our region Thurs/Fri but the models tend to overdo things. I.e. tonights storm now looks like not troubling us too much, may be 40-50mph gusts tho. Models had it looking a lot worse 48 hrs ago.
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I did not observe any snow in Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Oct or Nov this year (and none so far in Dec). This is the first time in the 15 years I've lived in Bedford. Got to be a fair chance of a totally sleet/snowless year. I know a couple of other Beds stations (i.e. Clifton nr Shefford, about 12 miles away) recorded 1 or 2 days with sleet in Jan/Feb but I didn't spot it here, and I am a pretty good lamppost watcher. I have local records going back 100+ yrs (Luton, ok its a higher elevation) but its not happened in that timeframe at all (no snow at all in the year). All in all this year snow-wise is more unusual than last year (December, in particular) when I saw 18cm level snow lying in mid month that lasted until after Christmas. Worth a post..... :smilz38:
East Anglia & Three Counties Regional Discussion - Part 3
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
10cm of snow in Shefford, Beds where I am tonight. Can't remember a more fun walk back from the pub and I'm 33! (Though we did get more in Dec 10)