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MidlandsSean

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Posts posted by MidlandsSean

  1. 2 hours ago, Costa Del Fal said:

    Nope and highly unlikely to materialise this evening either. Almost all present lightning is attached to a convergence zone running East Anglia to the Severn Estuary area. Not forecast to move unfortunately.

    Just had thunder and lightening in my location. Accompanied with heavy rain and hail!

  2. Those showers out towards the west of Liverpool look slightly interesting, following their current path it looks at least a small chance they are heading towards more parts of the midlands? Of course, whether they maintain any intensity is another question.

     

  3. 1 hour ago, Kieran said:

    GFS 12z showing band of moderate rain pushing eastwards starting off as rain as it reaches the midlands in the early hours...

    gfs-2-30.png?12

    Rain turning to sleet and snow as the cold air mixes in with the precipitation around rush hour. (This run puts Birmingham in particular in the firing line...

    gfs-2-36.png?12

    Then turning the precipitation to nearly all snow in most places albeit small accumulations as it clears away to the east....

    gfs-2-42.png?12

    Whatever happens its very different to what the BBC are showing. Hopefully the GFS ends up the correct outcome!

    Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

     

    GFS closer up for the same time frame, looks a little different. I think the majority of precipitation will be gone by the time the cold'er' air kicks in

  4. Things are devloping more over north west Wales. This is either a peppering of showers ahead of the main band which could easily die away or...and I hope it's this...a development on the southern flank of that heavy precipitation off north west England and it will keep on developing.

     

    Indeed, earlier showers were intensifying then dying out before they even reached shrewsbury..... hoping that they will be part of the feature running through and will continue to intensify! They seem to be getting a lot further inland than earlier anyway

    • Like 1
  5. You only have to look at the radar and see the showers they are getting, further North, to

    realise why they are under a warning and we are not in most parts of the

    Midlands.

    I would say nothing more than a very light dusting for most tonight, now

    The showers we are getting are nowhere near as good, or intense, as those

    further North.

    A real shame but that is the luck for a lot of the Midlands so far this winter.

     

    Yes it is a shame we are not getting a shed load of snow, however I must say, the radar looks a lot better than I was expecting it to be! So i'm pleasantly surprised, even if it will not amount to much!

  6. I notice the intensity is so variable, one minute its greens and yellows, then its just blues, then its yellows..... I need to stop analysing every 5 minute timeframe! (netweather extra scale)

  7. Whilst following the forum avidly, I rarely post.

     

    However I was just wondering if I was correct in thinking, when it comes to showers, models precip charts are even more unreliable and that theyre more to pick up trends/areas more likely to receive shower activity. 

     

    Surely its better to look at the radar more so than rely on the models at this time frame?

    • Like 2
  8. Thanks both, really appreciate your input.

    I really hope being on the southern side will make a difference but I'm not completely enthusiastic. However anything will be better than the chilly miserable weather here

  9. We decided to book a weekend in Gran Canaria going 7th - 11th November

    Having looked at the forecast it seems that it was a bad time to go as all it will do is rain and there's not much chance of sunshine.

    Seems like Spain would have been a better option than the canaries :/

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