[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013]

To paraphrase Steve Cram's commentary...

Beautiful!

As indicated, a seismic scale split in the upper circulation, the cooling of the tropics takes the eye and completes the circle nicely.

Given the amount of low heights we've seen over the Aleutians just recently (not to mention the recent spike in global mountain torque), further warmings are on the cards.

I'd like to introduce myself, my name is chris, I'm from across the pond in Langhorne, Pa which is about 30 mins north of Philadelphia. I have 3 questions I would like to ask:

1. what affects will the warming of the stratoshere have on my area?

2. will the warming have any affect on the mjo, i've noticed the european model has it going into phases 4 and 5 (which does not look good for cold in the east coast)

3. will the warming affect the ao and the nao?

I've enjoyed reading your posts

thank you

Chris

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch]

The conditions which set off a stratospheric warming or disturbance or the vortex include persistent anticyclones and rossby wave breaking. Since la nina relates to strong trades and a fixed pattern of anticyclines either side of the date in the pacific then this would possibly provide a strong trigger for the stratospheric disturbance.

If you had analysed the QBO though you may have come to different conclusions so the splitting is rather unusual compared to recent years for this time of year. The details at the moment from the stratospheric forecast are not quite working out for a cold spell in the UK, but it does look like a cross polar flow may start up. What I would point to is some pretty unusual weather across the US.

ECM deterministic forecast is not that encouraging though at the minute for UK snow or for tropospheric weather to reflect conditions in the stratosphere. We wait and see how it develops as there would appear to be good indications for north atlantic ridging despite what the models show.

Brickfielder, with this stratospheric warming what implications would this have on the us?

Thanks,

Chris from the other side

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch]

I just want to introduce myself, my name is Chris and I am from the U.S. (Langhorne, Pa.) which is located between Philadelphia and Trenton, NJ. I have been a reader for some time and I admire how you guys communicate with each other. Now on to my question; How will this possible stratosphere warming effect the U.S. preferably the East coast.

Thanks,

Chris

from the other side