Morning folks, long time no see! I've been busy with the new job (which is something of a dream job combining weather forecasting and the railway but also not the most sociable hours), and now living in Glasgow which will be a novel experience in terms of snow chasing.
I think we're in a relatively good place as far as snow chasing, certainly as good as we've had since 2010 (though bearing in mind there were a couple of years since where we had a watered down version of this which fell apart) - the worse versions of the medium term from the GFS are still fairly promising at least in terms of inland snowfall with a modest bit of elevation, and the European model has the fastest and cleanest evolution to deep cold we could really ask for
Ensemble mean is as good as you'll see too, a textbook negative NAO setup with a northeasterly flow.
I do think that things will become a bit less clean closer to the time, and we're very much fighting with the very mild ssts which mean the bar for snow is higher than the usual rules of thumb (though also likely pep up the showers) but given the starting point it's hard to think of a more promising outlook to start winter.
Morning folks, long time no see! I've been busy with the new job (which is something of a dream job combining weather forecasting and the railway but also not the most sociable hours), and now living in Glasgow which will be a novel experience in terms of snow chasing. I think we're in a relatively good place as far as snow chasing, certainly as good as we've had since 2010 (though bearing in mind there were a couple of years since where we had a watered down version of this which fell apart) - the worse versions of the medium term from the GFS are still fairly promising at least in terms of inland snowfall with a modest bit of elevation, and the European model has the fastest and cleanest evolution to deep cold we could really ask for Ensemble mean is as good as you'll see too, a textbook negative NAO setup with a northeasterly flow. I do think that things will become a bit less clean closer to the time, and we're very much fighting with the very mild ssts which mean the bar for snow is higher than the usual rules of thumb (though also likely pep up the showers) but given the starting point it's hard to think of a more promising outlook to start winter.
