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Cric_lancster

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Posts posted by Cric_lancster

  1. Aye it looks fairly dodgy going into Friday, found the GFS and the NAE work fairly well short-term (<48 hours) for these sorts of things, will be keeping my eyes peeled to see how this one pans out - I tend to take the ECM for broader patterns past t48 - never really thought it was great for the nuances nearer the time. Looks as though it will fill in as it passes over Scotland, but I'll back it still be packing a fair old punch - Irish sea won't be too friendly on its current track I imagine!

  2. Just thought I'd post this in here - courtesy of snowwonder in the Winter Model Discussion thread, it's from Luton Airport, but still reckon it sums up the UK situation pretty well.

    'UK - As forecast we have seen large accumulations of snow across far eastern parts of the UK over the last few days which mostly missed LTN & STN, but ice is now affecting many other areas of the country. The next 2 days look much drier and brighter but still very cold, giving us some respite from potentially disruptive wintry weather but a continued risk of severe frost and ice and plenty of de-icing activity. However, towards the end of the week it looks as though there will be a transition to more unsettled conditions spreading from the west. Over the last few days the UK has seen a battle between cold air to the east and north-east, and milder, moist air to the west. Cold air has certainly won the battle for the moment but milder air in the west is trying to push against it all the time. This is creating very difficult conditions to forecast. The current thoughts are that a band of rain will push in from the west on Friday, hit cold air and turn to snow that could produce significant accumulations for much of the UK. The main risk areas initially are Northern Ireland, Wales, northwest England, the West Midlands and southwest England but it is likely that these conditions will move east over the course of Friday and into the weekend. However, considerable uncertainty remains in exactly how the band of precipitation will then position itself, whether it continues northeast or stalls over western Britain. In the extreme west, snow is likely to turn back to rain but we could see large accumulations of snow in places. Amounts of snow are highly uncertain but there is currently a moderate risk of severe disruption to our operation. Over the weekend further outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are expected to push in from the west but there is still considerable uncertainty as to how quickly this might happen and whether or not we will see slightly less cold conditions despite the above predictions.'

  3. Early days on where Friday/Saturday precip will get to yet, like many say 48 hours is practically FI. The Beeb seem quite bullish about a countrywide snow event, with the snow spreading extensively eastwards through Friday. A lot of cold water to go under the bridge before the location of that band reveals itself.

  4. I'd welcome a dry summer here. Anything that makes pitches better to bat on, produces quicker outfields, and surfaces that offer more turn! Similar to June last year would be nice. North Lancashire could do with some sunshine, the past 4 years have been generally quite dull, damp and cool. I couldn't believe the difference when I went down to Colchester last year in early July and all the outfields were parched with the pitches rock hard pancakes. And it was 30 degrees on the Friday of the first week of July there! Went back up to play on the Saturday to Lancaster, was about 17 degrees and sodden! A Jet to the far north and a series of big fat highs centred off the East coast please!

    C.L.

  5. Very worrying the way the seismic charts are showing continued rises at esk and hvo. If Katla should blow then this could last months not days or weeks. shok.gif

    Hmmm yes not great news. Forgive me if I'm wrong but is it 'harmonic' tremor that is the worrying one, any one know if any has been about lately around Katla/how to recognise it?

    C.L.

  6. This 'thaw' is very subtle here, the roads is still pretty much caked in ice, it's just now that some of it has now turned to black ice with these temperatures. Snow still remains on most rooves evn though now it's slightly reduced. Still ruddy cold. Tbh I'm not too fussed about snow and ice remaining, in fact i'd rather it went tbh, with a-level exams next week I wouldn't want them to be put back to the summer after the work I've put in + how it affects UCAS etc.

    Anyway the weather will do as it decides. Can see wet snow/slushy conditions arriving over the next few days here, snow further inland. All eyes to the east and south-east for this precipitation.

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