nsrobins

90F+ surface ts and 72F dps - phew! According to windmapper the dryer air is slowly mixing from the SW agreed but surface winds show orthogonal convergence along an axis just to the West of you now. Will the cap break in time? The clock is ticking.

OK Nick. Great to see some green back on the SPC convective discussions. Today is probably all about 'sniffing the dirt', with weak OFBs and convergence and topography and Uncle Tom and all thrown into the mix as to when and where you might get something to fire. Watch the skies (and the radar of course!), but if I were to stick a pin I'd say the River crossing north of W Falls and up to Lawton might be a good place to start. Good luck.

Are those camera settings or synoptics? Great shots - looking forward to the Grand Canyon.

Yea good performance from NAM in particular as it picked up on the potential in C W and S TX two days ago. You'll probably need to get to Abilene and south to get the best of the shear on offer but I'll have another look in the morning our time. At least it'll make an interesting morning read. Are you at the Texan yet or are you scooting aroung the pulse stuff currently over you area? Incidentally, we have a plume here tommorow with LIs of -11 and available CAPE in the 1750+ range but with a strong cap. Expecting intense storms to break out along the M4 corridor northwards from 17Z.

Anyone doing the challenge tonight, Nick? Nice little cell near Beaver in the Panhandle about 100 miles SSW of you. Not moving anywhere fast so you might pick it up in three of four hours. How is everyone feeling at the moment. It must be so frustrating having the upper winds just die on you, especially given juice and heat has returned in abundance. I really hope something changes in the next three or four days. I did look at Monday as having pssibilities down in W TX but my post has been lost.

Good luck, Nick. Short of going to Canada there's probably not much you can do at the moment. I'm pleased to see some cells popping up over my earlier target of SW OK but I can see why you've stuck with the upslope action. Maybe there's something available for Sunday/Monday as a marked DL sets-up on the NM/TX border but it's early days.

I still think there's enough to warrant looking at the OK/AR border down towards MS later this afternoon. The WV imagery shows a boundary of sorts ahead of a plume of nearly 70dp surface flow from the E. 12NAM breaks out ppn from 21Z in this area, and although not unstable as such something may fire if the low cloud crud can clear off in time. The other area is the continued upslope activity developing just east of the high range on the NE/CO border region. This, given your current position, will offer more potential maybe. Nothing mentioned anywhere on this so I'm going alone hence I might be way off the mark but hey, at least I'm talking about potential in these quiet times

Putting this in here as there's no discussion for the next few days. Picking the bones of the depressingly quiet looking synoptics for the next few days (unless you fancy a trip to Florida) and I think there's something that might be worth considering for tomorrow but it'll involve a trip back to W OK. The low currently over the GOM is trying to feed moisture into the MS/AK region and the push is enough to get 60+ dps into W OK by 21Z Fri. A sounding for Fort Smith has LCLs at 750m and enough instability to generate around 1000J/kg of mean CAPE. Shear is minimal realising less than 1.00 0-3 EHIs but I think there's enough to produce initiation and hailer/structure opportunities. I'm not sure how this fits in with SPC analysis but may be worth a punt. I still remain optimistic that the GOM low will slowly lift out of the Gulf and start to re-instate the expected late May synoptics by late weekend/early next week.

Which one? Glad you got some action chaps - made the long haul worth it I would think.

Stream is holding together nicely. Things going according to plan just now - I think you need to get on the 92 at Ogallala and get NW into the action. Could be some great high-based structure in the next few hours and I see the cell on the border is meso warned.

Good to hear you made it safe and sound, Nick. I see Paul K, Sam Hall and team have also arrived and are heading up to the area themselves. Not surprisingly SPC have upgraded to Slight and I'm slightly more confident now of some Nebraska upslope magic! The whole thing IMO relies on the fact that a DL bulge draws reasonable juice over the top westwards, roughly just behind a rather saggy looking cold fontal boundary. Good luck all.

18Z NAM: A touch more interesting now, with a firmer moisture profile. Chatting on Stormtrack and the consensus is the moisture will be shallow and mix down to <50F tds by 00Z but you know I'm not so sure. The vertical moisture profile shows sufficient depth I believe to support some high-based storms. Possibly very high based actually but atleast you'll see them from miles away! I really believe there is enough of an excuse to take the hike up into High Plains country, and a preliminary target based on the aforementioned moisture plume and CAPE, CIN progs and the (theoretical) position of the cold front/'psuedo' dryline axis would take me to North Platte, NE for a late lunch but be prepared to head NW from there if necessary. Note: I'm still learning this art and will try to introduce other parameters such as Theta E and LCL as and when I fully understand them!

Glad to hear you're considering heaidng North Paul on Wednesday and i can now add a bit more detail to my post yesterday about the possibilities up in NW NE. First up: it's going to be hot - real hot, with surface ts into the mid 90s by 3pm across KS especially. So assuming the aircon is working efficiently, on to the action. The 06 NAM paints a potentially pretty picture of LP high-based sups rolling off the slopes by late afternoon. Moisture looks alright, and indeed a tongue of 57ish dps rides west along the NE/SD border above a dry bulge across the NE panhandle. There's obviously enough shear to turn the updrafts as by 00Z Thurs a slither of up to 3.00 EHI is in place roughly along the moist plume described above. No problem with cap as far as I can see, but will a modest 1250 or so mean CAPE be enough to give the parcels lift? I wonder how much the model allows for topography as the rolling hills of west Nebraska can add a touch of je ne sias que and if you're lucky a beautiful elevated supercell may make the trip worthwhile.

I can do footie on Sky, a pint of London Pride and a curry ordered for delivery in an hour. Will that do? For you downtimers, there is a change afoot - trust me!

I agree with Nick in that there's slim pickings for a while now. However . . . You might want to look North towards the high plains on Wednesday and especially Thursday. The 06NAM continues to offer the chance of upslope-forced action from the NE Panhandle (achievable) up into the Dakotas. Afternoon heating and modest mid-50s dps generate about 1800 mean CAPE which assuming topography can break the cap should be enough for some structure. Actually although flows are fairly weak at all levels, there must be some vector components as NAM is offering 1.50 EHI in a line up into SD (presumably the cold front axis). Worth a punt? Longer term, and the 06GFS has me in the mood to lay me tackle on the line and predict a significant improvement in moisture return for the weekend. The upper pattern suggests a de-amplification (made up term LOL) with richer juice making its way back into the southern plains as an upper low develops over the four corners.

Late night, Paul? :lol: Good to see you are using your down time wisely. I sincerely hope that something changes in the very near future to enable you all to get on the road again soon, though it looks like Team 3 will have a quiet start.

All quiet on the western front? Perhaps there's an opportunity today (Sunday) to think about a spot of recreation, but keep at least a small chance of some structure in the mix too. Along the I40 into NM there's some amazing landscapes, and you might catch a lovely cell rolling off the high country?

The Pampa cell is wandering ESE towards Wheeler, and looks like it's backbuilding.

Lovely structure on that discrete Pampa cell: http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/playe...ter&uid=338

Good luck! I'm out at an Abba themed quiz this evening ( <_< ) but should be back online by 23Z to see how things are going.

Glad it was worth the effort, Steve. I didn't think initiation would be that far west to be honest but it sounds like it was a lone wolf so had plenty of time to just sit there and deliver. Great account by the way - I can almost feel the suspension crunch as you railroaded that ditch!

Paul I'm still thinking Medicine Lodge area, so a casual trundle west towards Pratt could be in order. The overall shear magnitudes are lower here than further north but I like the directional vectors and I'm still looking at an LLJ streak of 40kn after 00Z. Cape, juice etc no problem. So, the choice - stay south (KS/OK border) for slow moving hailers and maybe a weak tube. Go northeast (MO/IL) for slippery low-based clumps but higher tube chances. Umm.

It's a bit early for the switch to High Plains activity just yet, but it does indeed look quiet on the macro-scale for many days. Mind you, never say never in this game and even in flat spells the odd thing crops up to make it all worthwhile. I'd be making provisional plans to get up into high KS or NB even to start with (19th May) if the current long range is right.

Nick - could you move the thoughts for Day 20 over from the other thread please? Thanks

Looks potentially tasty agreed, Tony, but with a focii of 2.00+ low layer EHI on the border (06 NAM) I might be tempted to start a bit further South, say Medicine Lodge. The LLJ cranks-up quite impressively with an 850mb level wind of 45kn over my target. A few south-side of front low-based sups looks possible.