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Weather Guide Monday 6th To Sunday 12th August 2012 (west Wales And The Midlands)



[b]Headline: Becoming warm, then even quite hot; mostly dry after Tuesday[/b]

Although we have all seen quite a few showers in the past week, there has also been some decent dry and sunny spells between times, and with the temperatures close to the Summer average, feeling quite pleasant. Coventry and Rugby have, as is usual, experienced thunder with the showers over recent days, while here at Llanwnnen, no such luck, in fact I have not heard thunder since July 2011, quite a storm drought that!

Rather unsettled with some further rain or showers early this week. High pressure then brings mostly dry and eventually very warm conditions from mid week onwards, 80f is a fair bet for many of us by the time we have reached the weekend. Chance of a thundery breakdown next weekend (hopefully affecting west Wales).

More heavy showers this afternoon for most of us, again with some thunderstorms developing, though probably not over the part of Carmarthenshire where I shall be! The low that has kept us unsettled for much of the past week, is edging away into the North Sea on Monday, but still close enough for some further heavy showers in places, more especially the Midlands. Little respite before the next troughs encroach from the Atlantic during Tuesday bringing patchy rain and drizzle into west Wales during the afternoon, and later onto the Midlands. Temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday near the August average so reaching 19 - 21c. If skies clear then a chilly August night to follow for Tuesday.
[attachment=137895:brack1a some rain pm Tue.gif][attachment=137896:Rukm601 iffy Tue.gif][attachment=137897:Rtavn664 patchy rain Tue.png]

Pressure is building mid week, although still with weak fronts trapped with the high that is over the UK by Wednesday. So a mostly dry day, with sunny spells developing, and becoming quite warm, into the low 70's f. Just the outside chance of an isolated afternoon shower for one or two places. A nice strong warm high then sits over us on Thursday, with good sunny spells, and temperatures reaching 23 to 25c. The high is still present for Friday and even Saturday, edging into the North Sea by then. Very warm air is advected up over the UK from the near Continent. Friday then, very warm and mostly sunny, temperatures around 27c or 80f.
[attachment=137899:brack4 Warm dry Thu.gif][attachment=137900:Rukm961 nice H Thu.gif][attachment=137901:Rtavn1142 v warm sunny Thu.png][attachment=137902:Rukm1441 v warm sunny Fri to Sat.gif][attachment=137902:Rukm1441 v warm sunny Fri to Sat.gif]

Saturday could potentially be even hotter with plenty of hazy sunshine, and would be a humid sticky day, temperatures perhaps reaching 28 to 30c! However there is still some doubt as to how long the high, and therefore the heat will hang on for. A breakdown to cooler more unsettled weather will occur during next weekend, although perhaps not until later Saturday or even Sunday. Whether the upcoming warm spell goes out with a bang or a whimper next weekend is still very much up for debate, but I am hoping for the former!
[attachment=137903:Recm1442 Hot humid Sat.gif][attachment=137904:Rtavn1562 heat potential Sat.png]


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