[General Model Output Discussion]

The GEM is showing a 1055mb anticyclone over Southern Norway, these things are not shifted easily.

SS2

Could you give me a link to these charts please, I thought the GEM only went out to 10 days.

SS2

click on the 384 chart its the ggem anolamy chart ggem ensemble images not sure of the proper link

[General Model Output Discussion]

IN CAPITALS AS SO MANY CANNOT READ WHAT HAS BEEN POSTED BEFORE.

FORGET THICKNESSES IN THE CURRENT SET UP. A CONTINENTAL FLOW DOES NOT REQUIRE THICKNESSES BELOW 528 DAM FOR SNOWFALL. JOHN HOLMES REPEATEDLY POSTS A LINK TO THE NETWEATHER 'WILL IT SNOW' INFO.

with the flow being brisk, even the coastal areas could be ok for snow on this.

breakdown according to the ggem blocking charts day 11 to 15 any one else got a opinion

[General Model Output Discussion]

agree with you nick regarding ukmo on the 120 chart low out of usa tracks up the greenland seas by 144 there is no way the high will sink waa

[General Model Output Discussion:]

Just for info and to put some of this mornings more extreme comments into real life perspective.

The lowest daytime temp for London on the 00Z ECM was 0C. (notice no -2 to -8's ! )

It was an incredibly dry run for London (as were nearly all of the 50 ensembles).

The good news is that it mirrored the ensemble mean very well, also that ensemble mean keeps temps at +3 daytime or below right out to the 14th of Jan.

i find it strange how can you get a very dry north or north easterly things will change nearer the time i guess

[General Model Output Discussion:]

just look at the gem blocking out to 15 days no sign of this mornings gem on there or check out nafes charts

[General Model Output Discussion:]

ecm this morning deep freeze to hit uk many places will be cut off

gem is poor this morning though

[Model Output Discussion - 26Th Dec 21:25-->]

like the ecm 216 and 240 lows heading in to france southern uk will get lots of snow from that path

[General Model Output Discussion Tuesday December 22Nd:]

any one seen the ecm ensembles mild outliers for op and control

[General Model Output Discussion Tuesday December 22Nd:]

ecm ensebles exteded mild outlier for the op and control check them out

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion]

will it snow on sussex coast or need to be a few miles inland

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch]

We still have great mean zonal wind forecasts which are now negative into the reliable timeframe.

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/ecmwfzm?alert=1&forecast=all&var=u

We have a lovely strat 100hPa profile at T+192 - the kind that I would have liked to see after last winters MMW- the only annoying thing is that the ECM forecasts are delayed a day so things may have changed by the time we look at them!

hi do you think when the next warm wave enters the strat if it collapes is it possible that we could end up with a 1963 or a 1947 with sustained cold any ideas

Looking further afield I am looking for evidence that the strong amplitude wave 1 may be ready to cause another warming. There are signs, with a severely distorted vortex shape at the 10hPa level that this could occur. Even though the mean zonal winds are forecast to increase dramatically I feel that the stratospheric vortex is there for the taking!

It's like a squeezed balloon ready to pop!

[Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->]

if this warm wave happens and it causes the polar vortex to collapse what are the implications for the winter could we end up with a 1963 or 1947 winter any ideas guys

[Preliminary Winter Forecast]

to have high pressure from canada to scandinavia is good very cold i imagine but to get a low pressure from arctic east of moscow that would be something has there been a occurance when this scenairo has happened before and are there any charts available

[Most Memorable Weather Event Of The 2000S?]

february 2009 the coldest and snowiest since 1947