winter watcher
-
Posts
231 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by winter watcher
-
-
you mean further west?
LoL Yes sorry further West
-
I think the met office should extend their warnings further east because here in Surrey we have had just a tad over 2cms fallen today and that was unexpected. Tonight i think we will see even more snow and a lot heavier.
-
Really coming down so hard now viability virtually zero huge flakes..
-
The sky is full off snow here in Morden Surrey been snowing most off the day and getting very heavy now
Edit: Huge Blizzard....
-
Well i have now made up my mind i am sticking with the Sky News Weather and not the bbc No snow was forecasted by the bbc until late this evening. Sky said that we would see snow all be it light from mid day onwards and they was 100% right light snow and high winds. Bit cheesed off that Surrey are going to miss the heavy snow tonight and tomorrow just our luck lol
-
south of london must be getting battered right now - any reports from Croydon, Morden area?
Yep SM4 thats me mate heavy snow
-
Where's SNOWBALL the young lady who kept on banging on how we are not going to see any snow
LOL i want to make her eat snow. -
Was just giving up and going to bed !! Let it snow let it snow let it snow............
Have you finally got some now mate?
-
Whats interesting looking at the radar is just how flat the western edge of the band is, its quite amazing how sharpt the cut-off point. This indicates to me a strong frontal system as we can see...
It also means this front still has a bit more NNE motion to go as well.
ps, as for Fleet, thats a very good total, well done!
Kold when do you expect the heavy snow to filter into Wimbledon Sw London mate?
-
Just started here Wimbledon sw london only snizzle but its a start
-
Why am i not seeing snow i really do not know i hear its snowing all around me but nothing here it really is frustrating
:huh: -
Still nothing yet really getting a bad feeling about this missing me now Wimbledon surrey
-
Snowing all around me and i thought we was in for a hammering
If there is any snow what time would it be arriving in sw London anyone please? -
LOL don't bank on it Kold take it from someone who travels the route every day by train..... if the snow pushes all the way into the London area from Surrey which seems likely... trains around here notoriously come to a stand still
Well mate i work in Putney as a train crew and i can insure you i will try me best to get in but if the buses go down before 8am im staying home.
-
Just got home from work yes i know i do start early 5am lol I feel very confident about tonight being south west off London had a fax through from the met office i work for the trains and they said up to 30cm's can be expected across the west off London possibly even more. They also said the threat remains after for very heavy and even prolonged snow to affect this region until Sunday 06:00 hrs where a further fax will be sent.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
-
Just got home from work yes i know i do start early 5am lol I feel very confident about tonight being south west off London had a fax through from the met office i work for the trains and they said up to 30cm's can be expected across the west off London possibly even more. They also said the threat remains after for very heavy and even prolonged snow to affect this region until Sunday 06:00 hrs where a further fax will be sent.
-
I think what's going to be very bad is unlike the famous February event where i received up to a foot off snow it took 3 days to completely melt which is not that long. This event will be 100x more severe i could see us eclipsing those totals that i seen back then but the main thing is that it is not going to thaw at all for a good while. You think Wednesday snow and Thursday snow by then we could well see half a metre and by Friday Armageddon strikes and bingo there's over a foot off snow going nowhere. I have been also having a good chat with BFTP and he says also we could well see a pasting down here from the 14th too the 20th worth baring in mind.
-
dont know wot they say about saterday!!!!
I thought the big day was Friday going by the brilliant forecast this morning? Any idea after the main event what will follow maybe heavy snow showers?
-
Hmm.
Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.
The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.
Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.
Ok firstly i disagree with all above
The lp system to our sw would not have brought a foot off snow to us western areas may have had a shout off something decent but just rain for your and my area. Secondly if you are after cold and snowy weather than its a blessing that the lp system did not approach our shores. And finally you say we are already in the event low temps last night i had a hour off light snow just after the midnight cant be bad can it? All i am saying is to take my advice and listen to the more experienced people who has been there done that and got the shirt and atm they are very exited and so should you be as well. Happy new year to you
-
Very good ecm run, okay it has the high toppling but it would still be cold and any snowcover any lucky people will recieve would certainly stick around.
Still a little disagreement, about the strength and how long it may last(i suspect on the UKMO, it would last longer than on the ecm/gfs runs) but the general idea is there for all too see.
Yes Geordie it looks like the high setting up for most off the uk but not for all for me on a personal note we could see a lot off snow in the se if the chart comes off all in all stunning output across the board today last night expected nothing looked out after midnight and we had light snow for around a hour and a light cover this morning.
-
90%- very high
UKMO looks a little progressive & deep with the shortwave at 144, this has unanamous model agreement- wait to you see the London ensembles- they will be tightly clustered-
S
Thanks Steve very much really do appreciate a response back. Happy new year to you mate and what a new years present it is to see these MEGA DREAM charts
-
Darren Look again at the UKMO 144- the trough over scandi is sinking SW- it will end up pretty much like the 12Z GFS- at 168
People thinking that the timeframe of 144 is FI are very much mistaken tonight- the SLOW cut off jet over Southern Greenland would take some SIGNIFICANT change in proggs to move that anywhere other than favourable for the UK-
168 is the FI tonight-
watch the ensemble agreement out to day 7 especially for the SE ( london ensemble will be very consistent)
Steve
Steve what chances would you rate the gfs and the ukmo being on the money? Because up to now i thought both models was being over progressive and inconstant a few members kept saying stick with the ECM AND GEM
-
What's all the talk and utter nonsense being made from a few posters about 'Bad run no snow' OR 'To Dry' Fair enough if your a very new member than you should be forgiven but i have seen more experienced posters saying these sort off things and it gets on me nerves to be frank if you use your loaf's and think right what are we looking at here 'Ok Two to three weeks possibly longer off very cold temps' Also 'As John said earlier 95% off the country are likely to see some snow before its over with don't know how much or what day or time but it will come' And something young folk has not seen in all there life i,e Severe Cold Weather and not just a two day event. Come on all its new years eve a time to be happy and a time to celebrate and not time to be getting angry over model runs which has virtually no chance off predicting and pin pointing snow 24-48 hours out let alone 2-3 weeks. Happy new year to all and truly hope you all have a safe and stress free beginning to 2010
-
The models, out to T+48=UK Met and GFS then T+72 onwards includes ECMWF, so for the more immediate short term type forecasting are in pretty fair agreement.
To sum up, and trying to get a more sensible idea into here than some folk are giving, not all by any means. I'm sure that all but the newest of arrivals here are becoming aware of those posters who should be read and those best skipped over.
End of yet another jh non direct model comment.
Back to the models.
The start of the New Year is going to be cold for everywhere in the UK; frost, severe in places for pretty well all parts except the far SW coastal regions, even here don't be too surprised if you find white on your windscreen on at least one morning-probably frost!
-10 to -15C mins WILL occur, obviously not widely but the usual places especially as some will get a fresh clean snow cover.
Of snow then obviously its northern and eastern/central Scotland in the main firing line, both from N Sea showers and that low expected to track into the country over the weekend.
Eastern and NE'ern areas of England are also in much the same situation and for the same reasons, the risk extending into the SE before the combination of the high to the NW and the low to the SW back the winds SE.
How far north any effect of precipitation from this low extends-this far out is pure conjecture, so best left at that-conjecture.
The overall pattern is locked into cold, from basic synoptic charts out to items like AO/NAO/PDO and perhaps even further out. So for cold lovers enjoy whatever the weather brings you of the cold variety over the next 10 days possibly out to 20 days-beyond that then go see a crystal ball lady!
re the above about snow
I should add that as the low/trough moves south then as winds change to onshore in other places, N Ireland along with parts of NW England, Cheshire gap etc and Wales, then sharp snow showers are likely so keep an eye on the radar folks wherever you are.
I thought Southern And Eastern areas John would be perfectly set up for connective snow with the wind direction obviously not very surprised and confused :lol:
London & Se Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I have been a cold and snow ramper all my life BUT not know more. I have simply had enough off it i work on the railway and over the past few weeks i have never worked harder in all my life. Carrying heavy bags off grit around and spreading it all over, Clearing snow, Slipping on ice, Its been a complete nightmare. I for one am now looking forward to a warm up and no snow down in south west London for a long time to come which there will not be i am sure off that. And god if snow does fall next month or whenever please let it be my day off.