Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

winterfreak

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    499

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by winterfreak

    Arctic Ice 2009/2010

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Hi Winterfreak!

    As I'm often reminded in here that 40 yrs is nothing in climate terms so we really must expand things over centuries to see if we have cyclical major retreats (ice free Arctic) over extended periods.

    Such records lead us to the understanding that an 'ice free Arctic' is a rare state of affairs for the planet over the last 55 million years.

    If you've watched the russian coastline over the past 10yrs or so you'll have noticed just how 'milky' some areas get over summer.This discolouration comes from the erosion of the permafrost that the rivers pass through as it and pick it up as load.On reaching the sea the saline conditions cause the clay minerals to coagulate and then drop out of the load leaving a layer of clay/fine sand in front of the rivers exit.More melt ,more erosion,more deposits.Like tree rings the annual deposition of these varves can be cored and studied.We don't find any periods of cyclical extended melt to suggest a mirror of the events we are currently in the midst of.

    Seen any prog's on the Basking shark? Each spring they head north following the annual 'algal bloom', up past Cornwall past The Western isles and north. This particular type of algae favours a pretty tight temp range which is why we see it travel north as the waters warm in spring.Many such 'thermometers' exist in our oceans and each type exists in a narrow band of environmental conditions.Their remains sink to the sea floor on death and leave a record of temp conditions in the ocean muds.Some prefer sunlight, others live under the ice.we don't find temperate algae or open water algae ,in cyclical layers, suggesting such conditions existed in the mud logs we take from the Arctic waters.

    Foramoniferra are sea creatures with spiral shells (and very pretty) Water temps dictate which type of foram lives in which area.Some shells spiral one way others, the opposite way.Comes a temp change then a different species moves into the area (seeing as they do not live long this 'change' of species happens quite rapidly) and the mud logs show us the change.We do not find any evidence of any long cycle warm/cool phase changes in the Arctic muds.

    When rock is exposed to sunlight the energy messes with the components of the rock, take away the sunlight and these components start to alter (through their 1/2 life) into differing forms. When an ice sheet/shelf covers an area the bedrock is isolated from the sunlight and it's 'clock' starts ticking. In the same way that we know when the last time the Antarctic shelf systems were not there we can tell how long it has been since the Arctic bedrock has seen sunlight.The Stretch of ice shelfs running along Ellesmere Island (North of Greenland) has lost 3/4 of it's shelf ice since 1950.The rocks exposed there haven't seen sunlight since before the start of the last major glaciation. Why no evidence of long cycle Arctic temperature oscillation there?

    Woolly Mammoths and Rhino's, Giant Elk and Aurochs.All are found deep frozen in the Alaskan/Siberian Tundra. As it melts they start to rot and their bones are deposited in the streams eroding the Tundra.If we see regular cyclical melting in the high Arctic then the corpses we come across would show signs of previous melting (and associated bacterial activity in their bodies). We don't find any suggesting that these critters have remained deep frozen for the 15-30 thousand years of their entombment.

    I would be more than happy to be shown irrefutable evidence (at least strong enough to rival the above listing) that we are in the middle of an normal,cyclical Arctic melt. Thus far the evidence shows we are not and we are seeing an ice retreat unrivalled since the start of the last ice age.

    Seeing as temps are supposed (and were until recently) to be on the wind down to the next glacial period (we are physically past our 'closest' approaches to the sun in the Milankovich cycle) then why are we seeing such continued warming up there?

    I believe that we are not far from the point of ALL seeing , beyond reasonable doubt, that the changes in the Arctic are 'new' and not part of any extended cyclical response to an external driver(s).Sadly the Arctic was always to be the first to show the impacts of AGW.If we confirm (beyond reasonable doubt) it's occurrence there the temperate regions will not be far behind in showing us irrefutable proof of AGW either.By which time it'll be too late to do anything about it other than mitigate it's impacts on humanity.

    Though extremely fast in geological terms the energy needed to start to over-ride the planets climate is immense but ,like an oil tanker, once in motion it's own impetus makes it very hard to slow/stop.Many of the changes will only become undeniably apparent once AGW is in 'motion' and ,by then, it'll be to late to 'stop'.smile.gif

    The planet has been here before and will adjust (and self limit) the impacts of this forced warm up .I do not give credence to any 'runaway warming' scenario.We know that at certain GHG concentrations we can see 6c of warming.Are we headed in that direction?

    EDIT: Feedbacks;

    I was thinking more in line of CO2/Methane releases from the melted permafrost accelerating any warming we see.I was thinking open 'dark water' leading to more heat being absorbed in the arctic leading to later 'refreeze' (as the heat needs to be lost prior to refreeze) and weaker pack development (as we see today???). I was thinking northerly tracking of cyclones bringing more moisture /heat into the polar basin.I was thinking Forrest/peat fires as temps rise in the arctic leading to more soot deposits/CO2 releases.

    But he reckons it's cooling up there......:oops:

    Arctic Ice 2009/2010

    in Climate Change

    Posted · Edited by winterfreak

    I would hazard a guess that both the weight, and the mass, of the ice in the arctic today is not only the lowest we (modern man) has ever recorded but also since before the onset of last major Glaciation.

    It's extent (be it 15% of a pixel or 30%) may be the lower end of the past 7 years worth of data (and having another wobble I see) but the loss of perennial (and an average of 4m thickness of ice since the 1950's) has brought us to a Arctic last seen before the Arctic became ice free over summer.

    The Arctic gyre and trans Arctic current will show us all how this new type of brittle pack acts over winter seasons that aren't blessed with positive cold conditions but rather with a disruptive, stormy El-Nino driven winter (and the new propensity for those storms to manifest ever further north).smile.gif

    As for the Russians shouldn't they be wondering why we see no decay in the mega fauna that keeps popping out of their permafrost if it is constantly being thawed out? Or why there northern coastline shows no evidence of he kind of weathering the rivers/sea do to thawed permafrost until the recent past.

    An array of environmental 'evidence' points to this currnt Arctic 'thaw' being unprecedented since before the last ice age (be it exposure of rocks that used to be covered with ice shelfs for tens of thousands of years or changes in diatoms or Foram's,solufluction issues,changes to temperate flora/fauna etc.).

    Sure, long cycle solar could be a major temp driver but what of large flushes of GHG's in the atmosphere whilst the sun drives temps up? would the same pattern occur as in the past or would the GHG's alter the amount of heat held onto by the planet?

    As with every other natural driver it's not that they are there but rather the fact we have increased (and keep on increasing) the planets potential to hold onto that heat (and risking all the positive feedbacks we know occur when temps advance too high).

    Could I raise a couple of issues please GW?

    Why are you so quick to dismiss this chaps 40 year real time, first hand experiences of the Arctic when apparently nearly everyone else relies on 30 yr satellite observations. Perhaps your own first hand experiences of the Arctic region are better than his?

    Second re positive feedbacks leading to 'cooking' of the planet:

    I believe (although happy to be corrected) that co2 concentrations have been up to 8000 ppm in Earth's history with average temps some 6 deg c higher than present. Why, with these scenarios didn't we end up with multiple positive feedbacks that ended life on Earth ?:smiliz19:

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by winterfreak

    As ever there are many variables which can affect the weather tropospherically, with the stratosphere being just one of them.

    The general winter stratospheric rule is this: The colder the stratosphere becomes the stronger the stratospheric polar vortex(PV) becomes. The stronger the stratospheric PV, the stronger the tropospheric PV is. This leads to deeper low pressure over Greenland and a +AO which generally brings milder wetter conditions to the UK.

    Any warming of the stratosphere can disrupt the PV and increase the chances of colder weather here.

    Many thanks for the explanation there Ch, much appreciated and understood!;)

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by winterfreak

    Hi WF.

    I was suggesting that I did not know how significant a forecast warming at the very top of the stratosphere is.

    If you read this thread from the start (you may have already done this) then hopefully you will have a better grasp. I would say that sometimes this subject can be quite complex because it requires an understanding of the troposphere first before working up to the stratosphere. If you have any further questions please don't hesitate to ask. Remember though that I am no expert in this regard, just an enthusiastic amateur!

    Reading through the Netweather guides or asking questions in the learning area has helped me tremendously in the past.

    c

    Many thanks for your reply. I had a read through the thread which does explain things. However, is a warmer stratosphere conducive to milder temps and a colder stratosphere to colder temps? This is the bit i can't get my head round.....:rofl: as for sudden warmings and mid winter warmings....:lol:

    WF

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I don't really know what to make of the forecast warming at the 1 hPa level. The upper stratosphere is currently a lot colder than average. During last winter's MMW the temperature only rose by a small amount at the 1 hPa level. This was then followed by a dramatic cooling compared to other levels of the stratosphere.

    Hi there, new member to the forum and a bit clueless. Could you please explain your comment above, in laymans, so an eejit like me can understand a little better what that means with regards to winter!:rofl:

    I'm trying to learn a little at a time you see.

    Regards, WF.

    Greenland Ice Loss 'accelerating'

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    I have not mentioned names or jobs, though I know them, and know exactly how to get those individuals with their universities involved. They are not sleeping well, I can guarantee you that.

    Their VCs are already involved, that's all I can say right now, let's just say there will be more stories coming out very soon. whistling.gif

    Good times.

    Oh you can't leave it like that......:whistling:

    Elaborate why don't you?????

    Greenland Ice Loss 'accelerating'

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Right, we're taking this outside laugh.gif

    I'm very serious about this scientific incident because we need to realise there are a large amount of hoaxers and fraudsters trying to fleece us. Science requires people to assess the quality of the research and I am distraught that the likes of M*&^ and J^%$£ and Cho)(*&^%$ have trashed the scientific process. I am completely in favour of science. I am not in favour of the trashing of science and hiding data and methods.

    :whistling:!!

    I understand your frustration, i feel the same, but some decorum please.......

    Greenland Ice Loss 'accelerating'

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    No, we don't have a quick decrease in global temperatures yet.

    It could mean that GHG effects are large and solar minimum effects are also large.

    It could mean they are both small.

    It could mean climate is on a random walk.

    Do we really know? No. So let's not trash our economies.

    Pingo, i'm new to this forum too but to join and then get into rows with people you don't actually 'know' is a bit off mate. Nowt wrong with passionate discussion but wouldn't it be better to get to 'know' people first instead alienating them to you? no point starting off as a ranter because as far as i can see, people won't bother with you if you do :whistling:

    Greenland Ice Loss 'accelerating'

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    The Himalayan Glaciers are an interesting one.

    Basically if they start to melt, it's dangerous because there will be no water for the Indians to bathe in.

    So they mustn't melt. And then the Indians will be able to bathe forevermore, of course.

    Ha Ha!! I know the Himalayan link is slightly OT for Greenland but you know, it does make you wonder what's going on re warming/cooling etc.... A few more years and we should know for sure.

×
×
  • Create New...