[Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion]

A few cells have popped up in the past few minutes over parts of Cheshire, near Chester & heading towards the Manchester moving north at a pretty good clip as shown by the custom radar grab...Worth watching these to see how quick they can develop, as there's a lot of energy & lift to tap into but still some cloud cover...Further south in the Midlands, there seems to be too much mid-level muck from the remains of decayed storms over France, scuppering convection...It's not over yet, but SB initiation needs to occur in the next couple of hours in this area, otherwise it's a bust, and we're going to have to look to the south for the chance of elevated storms tonight

Will keep you informed, those little cells are to the S-SW of me, about 10ish miles, have been watching them. Wind starting to pick now!

Hope these bugger's perform better than what Man City are at the moment :-P

CG

[Convective Weather Discussion Uk]

Herstmonceux, 5 miles from my house? scattered thunderstorms expected!!!!

Coast,

Is there any chance of the website for that information you got for that chat with all the perameters on it?

Thanks

CG

[Convective Weather Discussion UK]

2nd rumble CC...awesome CG lightening over to the north!

[Convective Weather Discussion UK]

Morning all!

I have a question...but I don't want to sound silly...hear me out.

Looking over the Cheshire Plaine, the is various amounts of convection going on, which is encouraging, however,

my question, why is there your normal white fluffy cloud with obviously grey bases (I take due to shading from the sun) growing nicely, then inbetween the, is some little, really dark ones...all over, to[p and bottom, even when the sun is on them....why such a difference in a relativly small space area of sky?

Thanks

CG

[North West Cold Spell 10]

another question to expose my ingnorance ...the streamers were now seeing in the north sea ...are the caused by the relative warmth of the sea ...and are they therefore less likely to continue at night?

I ask because someone earlier suggested clod cover was the reason for the gap in the streamers

Yes thats the cause buddy, They could well carry on through the night, as was seen in the irish sea a couple of weeks ago during the cold spell before x-mas...north of manchester did very well from those during the night from what I remember

C.G

[North West Cold Spell 10]

More than likely due to the cloud in the tail of yesterday's low spewing out over the north sea, blocking the sun and hence preventing convection.

Ahhh! Now that makes sense...the simplist of things that tend to be over looked!

Thank you!

then all i can say is that the temps better take quite a nose dive because at the moment they have held up since last night.

I think we could get away with this one, so I can see where chesire snow is coming from...look where the dam line is (not sure what the upper temps are)...way out in the mid atlantic and south through france. The low is set to sit east of scotland with a trough swinging out with what looks like a straight northerly...so a track of a southerly nature...but time will tell

[North West Cold Spell 10]

Maybe some one can help...

is it coinsidence or is there a reason that the showers over the north sea are pepping up north of middlesbrough and south norwich but nothing inbetween?

Ta

C.G

[North West Cold Spell 10]

I can honestly see where you are all coming from, I mean, I live in Crewe, as south of the NW region you can get, but instead of posting on the Midlands thread I come here as there are far far more experienced people to learn off...reading their thread its summed up mainly of 'oh its snowing here' reply: 'but i live 10 miles away and its not here *cries*'!

The difference I feel is if, for example, if a person from cumbria posted, they would be heard, (applicable to this now) not deleted...I feel people look at how many posts are made and dismiss them (in the model thread), not looking at their credentials...I fly aircraft, therefore am pretty clued up with fax charts, metars etc...however, when, for my own benefit, read the model output thread, to increase my understanding of forecasting, not nowcasting, I find it annoying...ok, there is some constructive posting, however the 'more' experienced posters start posting, for example, the low needs to be in 'x' postion for 'y' to happen (for their region, not the UK). we 'newbies' are small minnows in a sharks ocean on that thread to be heard, they simply are not interested in us nor'westers, but im thankful for our group of knowlegdable posters.

I think, now i've got this out of my system, I/we can focus on our region-down to south cheshire to the borders of scotland, from the flyde coast to the hills of the peak district...which other regions has such a variety of land scapes (plaines, coasts, hills (even mountains) that they can truely class as being in IMBY???

Thanks for your time, and i'll duely sit patiently for our time to come!

Cheshire Gap (Wishing you all a Happy and prosperous 2010)

[North West Cold Spell 10]

snowing in crewe atm...no rain to snow, straight to snow

C.G

[North West Cold Spell 9]

interesting by peter gibbs has the front stalling over manchester giving a covering of snow tonight!

Would I be inclined to think then, that this band of PPN is going to stall further north then thought?

[North West Cold Spell 9]

Without doubt, there are very few places in the band of precipitation receving anything other than sleet at the moment.

Cardiff have blizzards...apprently, though the traffic cams show alot of snow down there

[North West Cold Spell 9]

Yes but the question is will this continue as it goes n/ne? If Wales was flat we might be quids in, but there's a long way to go yet.

Fair enough and a good point...i find it hard to understand why meto have issused this...its not like its aimed soley for high ground either...time will tell I presume

CG

[North West Cold Spell 9]

You just beat me to it. The PPN will have to be a lot heavier to cool things down enough for snow here.

Have you not seen the growing, intensifying band?? Its getting heavier as it hits wales!?

[North West Cold Spell 9]

Just seen that LOL why are we under an orenge band for Heavy snow

Have the METO under estimated this are we now going to see a snow event?

Or are we just been teased again LOL?

C.S

Hey hey C.S

You beat me to it bud...I certainly hope we arnt being teased...it does apply for after 4pm...maybe its progged to push further north???

C.G

[North West Cold Spell Discussion]

Light snow here....probably being produced from the fog

[North West Cold Spell Discussion]

freezing fog here, temp -3.9....

causing havoc on the railway...ive got a frozen train....woop woop!

C.G

[North West Cold Spell Discussion]

That N.Wales band is getting its act in gear now...and heading nicely east while intensify...maybe the south of the region are in luck after the north had their fun!!! I'm glad im on nights and can follow it...don't want to jinx it mind!

C.S

[North West Cold Spell Discussion]

doubt it because the winds have now backed SWerly here which will no doubt hinder the southward progression of the band . never say never though

frickin eck them temps the highest its been today and going up 1.2c !

Are you on about the developing showers or the band in ireland (I thought these were associated with a front off the low hence the s/w wind)

[North West Cold Spell Discussion]

It's 1.7c yet the 1cm of slushy snow we have left is frozen solid, along with roads.

Is this a malfunction with my sensor - Or can this be expected?

Just had a look at the NW radar, those showers are really starting to pep up in the Irish Sea. Net weather future radar shows showers here by 8pm with those showers moderate in intensity and possibly grouping together to form a small band of snow. A further cm or 2 for some i'd say.

Just seen them...popping up like that, the cheeky buggers...but on the moto* office radar....and the showers spanning ireland are heading south east further...if they can reach the irish sea we may get some more if they can pick up some energy from the sea, as there still seems to be plenty there!!!

Fingers crossed....

How far south are these heading backtrack or is it a straight west-east affair??

*met

[North West Cold Spell Discussion]

Well what a very marginal day today...not snow/rain but watching snow showers drift by!!! Oh well...

could any one tell me the situ with regards to the showers over south west scotland through ireland...are they forcast to fizzle out??? or still going to head further south??

Thanks

C.G

[North West Cold Spell Discussion 3]

Lets all have faith...peak temps are bound to be reached at this time of day....lets hope the cold thats undercutting gets in gear! Though it's looking more and more marginal!

[North West England Cold Spell Discussion 2]

I'm taking a deep breath before I say this.... I can confirm that big fat snowflakes have penetrated the Cheshire snowshield!!!

lol they sure have...woop woop

[North West England Cold Spell Discussion 2]

I damn well hope so...looking north from crewe looks nicely dark now!

[North West England Cold Spell Discussion 2]

Snowmad, sorry bud, didnt get on here to see that...but hey if its that good, I hold my hat off to you!

IB? would those initials also be in relation to a christmas pudding per chance???

If so...well done you my friend!!!

C.G

[North West England Cold Spell Discussion 2]

From roughly 3pm onwards the band of Precipitation intensifies giving more in the way of heavy polonged snow showers for most areas of the north west but a again more so for the western area of the north west such as Western and Southern Cumbria, the western side of lancashire including the coastal areas , northen merseyside and possibly northern parts of cheshire.

This is likely to be the case for the following few hours with Lancashire and southern Cumbria recieving the most notable falls of snow.

By 21:00 sunday evening showers will die out from the north with the ppn concentrated around the Merseyside and greater manchester area with many parts of cheshire barring the far noth of the region missing out. These showers are likely to persist through out the night into monday and its not clear yet wether the lingering band of ppn will intensify.

A very informative forecast there...one which I hope does occur, however, I do not believe post 2100hrs the showers will stop at south manchester, baring in mind they are being pushed in by a potent Northerly, I can see those showers making head way further south 9without being bias to south cheshire) more of an add on to an excellent forecast...

I hope you dont mind, it was by no means a critism

C.G