iowpompeylee
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Posts posted by iowpompeylee
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Looking at the latest Met Office fax chart for Wednesday surely that will clip the south coast? That has to completely drop like a stone to miss us all. Think tomorrow’s run will nail it one way or another
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The silence says it all…………. The low is dropping south…..
all I can hope is for it to clip the Isle of Wight
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18 minutes ago, snowblind said:
Will your boss be sympathetic?
it’s a real trauma you know that
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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The latest UKMO fax chart for midday tomorrow shows a trough in the far se and a convergence zone along the Channel.
The ECM having been one of the least cold easterly solutions now completes it’s full u-turn showing -12 850 just off the Kent coast at midday tomorrow .
The south east IOW might do well out of that twig tomorrow! Let’s hope so anyway
will feel absolutely freezing tommorow
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21 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Southerners will be keeping an eye on the line in the channel.
I love the fax charts! Usually at this range very accurate
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I will be interested to see the UKMO fax chart later to see any disturbances in the next couple of days. I find them very accurate
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14 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Isle of wight looks decent for some snow on this run.
It’s looking too good at the minute
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4 minutes ago, weathercold said:
I feel we have the comfort blanket of the UKMO longer outlook. UKMO looks good, and I’d rather follow them into battle than any of the others modes tbf
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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:
Anyone notice this from the GEM? Much cold = more precip - covering for many on Mon night
I’ve always held the GEM in high regard
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17 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Aprege
This is the content I’m here for!! Us snow starved south coasters are taking notice!!
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36 minutes ago, carinthian said:
Morning all, another upgrade this morning in the shorter term from UKMO. Colder flow sourced from that intense cold pool out east making inroads to SE England during tomorrow. Think further upgrades are possible out to 96t, especially for the south with chance of light snow from any troughs that form in that flow.
C
This is quite possibly the first time us south coast southerners have a chip in the game
it’s been a long time. Let’s hope the short term upgrades cone to fruition
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2 minutes ago, mbrothers said:The best charts we’ve had for November for years yet horror show and game over have been used already this morning. I guess that’s what u get when u pin everything on individual runs all the time.
I’ve been on this forum for about 15 years. And not once has a cold spell ever been 100% perfect, not even 2010 they will flip and flop for days in advance! It will get nailed about 3 days before the event. I’ve learnt this the hard way
it’s all about trends and trends…
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6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
The gfs is shaping up nicely for next weekend, much like Icon. Looks like a full on Easterly imminent
Think the uk and parts of Europe will need a bra
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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
ARPEGE suggests decent snow further north by Thursday morning, especially towards the east. Meanwhile, the south coast plays its typical game of "will it or won't it" with the channel low:
And as a south coaster we all know how that usually ends up
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3 hours ago, MattH said:
Morning...
A troublesome time to be a forecaster, especially for next week, but just quoting the following from the post a few days ahead and, overall, this remains true, currently and looking ahead...
"The 'problem' that NWP will have looking ahead is that we continue to be within a hemispheric regime that is not 'normal'. I used the words 'usual' and 'unusual' the other day in a post, the usual setup clearly being a robust W'ly regime, with connected strat and trop, the unusual setup being what we have had now and, at the moment, will continue to have looking ahead."
Even I, 24 hours or so back, thought we were on to something when both the GEFS and the EPS, for example, generally flatlined on the colder N'ly flow for next week, but, as we have seen many times over the years whether deterministic models or ensembles, they can suddenly flip when the overall evolution is as complex and problematic as it currently is. I won't bark on about AAM this time as, overall, there is no real change there apart from to say that some recovery in AAM is still expected, linked to the movement of the MJO, so that's a positive (no pun intended!) looking ahead.
However...The problem with the run up to Christmas is as I mentioned the other day, the block of late is breaking down and we have a number of conflicting regimes trying to play out. Once again we can put the strat influence to one side, for now, so forget about that, but I am wondering whether it is the MJO, short-term that is actually creating some of the problems next week, in amongst what remains a highly disorganised tropospheric pattern. As I mentioned the other day the recent fall in AAM, if this were a robust W'ly regime with a strat and trop connection then we would be writing off any sig cold for a good while, but that isn't the case.
However, the MJO has been firmly over the Indian Ocean and while you can't take one variable at face value, some of the composite anomalies, especially the often correct regression plots do show a similar pattern to what the models are toying with next week, especially regarding the European high pressure.
We can see the -ve OLR signature over the I/O through the 10th to the 14th (MJO phases 2-3) and the regression plots do show a pattern that is dominated by the european high and low pressure to the NW. Obviously what we have to do, as a forecaster, is add the extra variables in play to adjust that 'black and white' output and suggest that the low pressure to the NW is obviously not likely to be that significant due to the on-going amplification to the troposphere etc.
As many have said on here in recent days it is the European high that is one of the key problems as this essentially stops the pattern from progressing eastwards and clearly stops the low pressure next week from trending eastwards. The 00Z GEM, of course, continues to highlight how if that does happen we end up with a far quicker and more significant way to cold weather once again. The evolution into next week, therefore, is very uncertain indeed, simply because of the all the conflicting signals that are trying to dominate, now that the original ingredients for a prolonged block are waning and there is, IMO, still the chance that the GEM, for example could come off, but, as the UKMO shows, there remains a worst case scenario as well with a SW'ly flow if the european heights dominate.
If we look at this from a model perspective and just taking N England from the 00Z EPS as an example, we can see how compared with yesterday's 12Z ECMWF it is a colder run, but the spread in the box and whiskers plots for the middle of next week is huge(!) and, again, this highlights well how uncertain the forecast is for next week.
Where we go from there remains problematic through to the end of the year, but with the MJO still set to be on the move and with the AAM set to recover once again, with no strat and trop connection then continue to expect some further 'fun and games' from NWP looking ahead. AAM, from the latest EC Monthly does fall into January and *IF* the strat and trop do connect then this could well be the first signs of the +ve NAO development that was always expected for the middle and latter half of the winter without an SSW, for example. It is unrealistic to think that the strat and trop won't connect at some point, but note the predicted recovery through the rest of December, January, meteorologically speaking, is a very long way off especially under the currecnt synoptics and situation.
Cheers, Matt.
Brilliant post, I’ve missed your input on twitter a lot! Just shows how difficult it is for the experts to come to a conclusion over the festive period, fantastic output watching for the last few weeks! Long May it continue! Rather this than westerly based 24/7. Great to hear from you Matt!
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Morning all, my break from model output fatigue lasted a day !!! Freezing cold night! Ive just seen this from met office they bring some precipitation to the south tomorrow morning! Does this flag up elsewhere? Might have some suprise flurries??
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Looks like we had nothing at all. I’m logging off for a bit now, model output fatigue! Never happens here!
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Temps reducing nicely on the IOW also feeling bitterly cold in the wind. Hope we can have a dusting overnight
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Happy with the warning for the IOW tonight. Been tracking this system for days. Let’s just hope it can spread westward and a little more north. The winds will be easterly later so hopefully that will help! Also through the night helps, we had a good snow window yesterday when we were marginal. All the best everyone for tonight
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21 minutes ago, festivalking said:
When the sun comes up this is a very useful webcam
Dartmoor Princetown Live Webcam
CAMSECURE.CO.UKLive streaming webcam from Princetown in Dartmoor Devon UK. This live webcam shows views from Princetown towards the moors and the infamous...Are there any more updates for tonight’s skirting precipitation? How far it may get?
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22 minutes ago, KTtom said:
I can't understand this thread sometimes, why are people posting charts 300 hours away? The models cant get tomorrow correct? That chart for Xmas day is physically impossible? People are searching for the Mild breakdown before its even began?
It’s is called the model output discussion, that obviously covers the whole output! People look Mainly for trends. Sometimes it comes off sometimes it doesn’t haha
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With the 
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A great summing up here Sunnijim, I’m hoping it stays as close as this during the next day or 2! If it does we could well be in for a suprise or two!!