Matt12
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Posts posted by Matt12
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Why do people seriously want snow? Isn't the Uk economy in a messed up state as it is? Another few days/week and things will be a lot worse!
1 cm here.
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Whole event has been a massive disappointment. Just 1 centimetre of snow (most of my patio hasn't even been covered). Can't wait until all the snow goes away and we get milder conditions - at least then it will be easier to get to work and the UK economy won't be paralysed!
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Only about a centimetre here. Can't wait until the mid-week when it all melts and the whole of England is back to normal!
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It's worth noting that it's not the kind of snow that will be around for long though (the 2 inches we had about 2 or 3 hours ago has now completely vanished). It either will tend to turn to rain after just a few hours IMO, or become slushy and melt.
Still, it was nice while it lasted. XD.
Matt.
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An inch of snow here - and still falling. I don't expect it to keep falling as snow for the rest of today, but it was a nice and unexpected surprise nevertheless.
Matt.
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I have not been on here for a few days coz of the bickering over the North v South devide! I can only say that if there is a bias for the south(which I am not saying there is) then that surely has nothing to do with the people who are on the forum but, just the that there are more people for the south that happen to be following this forum!!!
lets just all play nicely please!!!Yes, I think I speak on behalf of all southerners in hoping that Northerners get a decent dumping of snow (as with other areas of the UK away from the South/South-East).
I agree that the majority of posters probably are more interested in Southern areas though - simply because of the demographics of the UK (i.e. the population down south is much bigger than in Northern areas, particularly down here in the South-East). That doesn't mean that Southerners aren't interested in the weather further north though, nor does it mean that they don't want northerners to enjoy any snow.
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there was no imbyism in matts post nor mine. matt referred to posters in the south and southeast getting excited for no reason and i linked to the london ecm ens to back this up. please read the posts before making comments. i hope all of you in the north get buried in 6 foot drifts. (not literally!) we were just pointing out that the south is no longer in the firing line.
Yeah, I second that. I hope Northern Britain does get loads of snow too. For us south-easterners, I'd rather have milder temps than cold rain (as seems most likely), but that doesn't mean I don't want snow for areas that are cold enough. XD
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It still looks very cold and wintry in the north, it might be less cold in the south by then but we don't all live in southern england and there is wintry potential for areas north of the midlands..yes there are areas north of the midlands which hardly ever get mentioned on here. :lol:
True, but if you remember me (and I think bluearmy too) said that Northern areas (particularly Northern England/Scotland) may be in for some snow events in the next week. When I talked about people having too high expectations for the probably reality, I explicitly stated that I was referring to the South-East/Southern England. Our best hope is probably tomorrow.
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nothing odd about it-the latest model output shows only southernmost counties having mod-heavy precip-thus, as the upper temps and surface conditions, were never going to give anything in the far south-they delete the warning-professional forecasting it would seem to me.
They then look at the prospects for the next low-late Tue into Wednesday and decide that requires a PRELIM warning but DON'T expect that not to change-it will as I've tried to explain earlier.
I see. Thanks. I saw the latest forecast on the tv and that seemed to suggest snow still falling in the South East tomorrow. I guess anything's possible still, especially if the models change to something more favourable. I hope I was wrong and we see loads of snow everywhere - just want to keep expectations low in case of massive disappointment.
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i think reality will soon set in Matt
http://www.meteogrou...e_forecast.html
the latter part of the week certainly on the cool side but unlikely to be cold for anything notable.
Yeah, I agree. I just don't want anyone south of, say, Birmingham/the north Midlands thinking they will be buried in snow, or even see quite a bit of snow in the next week. I guess the hilliest parts of England/Wales might see something (as per usual) though.
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They have moved it to Sunday.
Yeah, except now, it seems, it will only affect Wales and Northern England/the Northernmost part of the Midlands.
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I've just noticed that Met O have removed the warnings over the threat of snow for Monday for the whole of the UK. I wonder if this is because of the change that has occurred in the outlook in the last day or so.
I still think the Northernmost parts of England and the whole of Scotland may get quite a few snow events in the next week. I can't really understand at the moment why people in the South-East/southern England are getting excited though - our only hope is that things change!
Matt.
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To be fair Matt you are basing your assumptions upon one model and this was only one run (06z) and it doesnt change everything, it COULD be an outlier compared to the other runs, nothing is set in stone about next week at all.
Yeah, very true. I just hope it isn't on to a trend.
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Hey, go easy on me guys, this is my first post, haha! I have been following these forums (this thread in particlar) for a while now (lurking) and only just made an account.
So, going by the models, what are the chances of Scotland seeing some snow over the coming week?
Extremely high, I'd say. Although I'm no weather expert (far from it!), the temps look favourable at the mo for Northern England and Scotland for some serious snowfall.
Perhaps, someone much more knowledgeable than myself can help with a forecast more. XD
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Why? Because they refuse to believe one run against many?
No, it's just that it now looks increasingly unlikely that most of Southern England/the Midlands will see temperatures conducive to snowfall IMO. I'm not saying that the MET O forecast was wrong when it was made (i.e. probably a few hours ago), just that conditions/things have changed since then. The temps look the wrong side of marginal IMO.
Lets be fair though you can't expect the Met O to keep adjusting their forecasts based on the GFS. If they did this their forecasts would change 4x a day. They would lose all credibility if they did this.
The Met O will look at the UKMO/ECM/ECM ensembles and then release the fax charts and base their forecast accordingly. Last nights +96 fax chart was unusual because they based this on the ECM rather than the UKMO. In my experience the +96 fax chart is based on the UKMO 90% of the time.
Lets wait until the 12Zs before making any assumptions of the Met O forecast. Even the NAE is showing stark changes between runs let alone the UKMO/ECM!
True. I just hope (and it's still more than possible) that things change in the next 24/48 hours. I guess our main hope centres on the variability/unpredictability of the models from one output to the next, in recent days.
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Shocked to find the updated Met O forecast still refers to there being snow over the weekend and Monday for the south east/east anglia. Just shows how out-of-date Met O's forecasts are to me.
Meto have refreshed their warning for Monday a little over an hour ago and much of the same regions are still in advisory.
I think it is wise to consider the ensembles, but it should be balanced with what the professionals consideration is also of a likely outcome.
For me, I am still thinking the Midlands northwards are looking likely to recieve a good amount of snowfall over the coming days.
I wonder if that was because their warning was issued just before the change in output occurred? Either way, I guess things can change more favourably just as quickly - especially nearer the event.
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Lots of rain for next week, proper British weather. That's more like it.
Yeah, we didn't get snow in East Herts anyway - just flooding and persistent heavy rain (which was freezing). To be honest, I'd prefer milder temperatures (even with rain) than cold rain and temps of 2/3C.
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Yes based on the ensembles its only the far N of England/Scotland that remains cold. However according to the latest Met O update this disagrees with the GFS as they refer to snow for Central parts which of course means the Midlands.
Perhaps it's me, but I always find the Met O's updates a bit out-of-date, though? The change has, after all, only happened very suddenly - I was expecting colder weather and a lot of snow until the shocking change in output about 30 mins ago.
Edit: I would agree with Scotland/the northern most parts of England still being at threat of snow in the next week though.
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The GFS ensembles now seem to indicate loads of rain next week, instead of snow. With uppers between 0 and -2C, I can't see how it will even be marginal for large parts of England (especially away from higher ground). I think we need the charts to revert back to see this turn back into a wintry period.
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I hate to say it, but the ensembles seem to currently be indicating rain next week (and plenty of it!) for most of England at least! I thought it was too good to be true when I say how much precip we are forecasted going to get in the next 7 days.
Matt.
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Anyone have any thoughts on whether East Herts will see any snow today?
Thanks.
Matt.
Edit: It's just started raining here, near Stansted Airport, about 50 miles north of London.
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urgh.... what a horrible outlook with that massive anticyclone drifting out of siberia and introducing possible easterlies. dunno why this is popular here as they will be quite dry, especially under high pressure. i understand why people like snow, but cold for colds sake?...
Because if it is cold for 2 works or more, it is bound to snow at some point (even if the models don't forecast it way out in FI). It just sets the right conditions which are needed for snow, and then usually the rest follows (but not always).
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To be fair its not really been a severe winter, cold for an extended time with 3 inches of snow on and off is how winters in the UK should be annually. Its mainly because we haven't seen any reasonable amount of snow for a number of years.
Snowfall every year in the UK at our latitude is not too much to ask.
It's severe compared to other winters in my life time (i.e. from 1982). It's worth remembering that most places had a lot more than 3 inches. In any winter spell some areas will inevitably get less than others, but most areas (and the UK as a whole) had their worst sustained winter spell in 30 years.
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I agree with some of your post Matt, but I can confirm that Ireland got the severest wintry spell in early Jan not seen for 50 years. Almost a month without a thaw is good going for an island skirting the atlantic
Well, I would agree that this has undoubtedly been the coldest and most severe winter I can remember (I am 27). I guess it just goes to show that severe cold weather is still possible in the UK.<_<
lets just all play nicely please!!!
Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The snowfall was a little disappointing here, I must admit. We managed a couple of inches. However, in the grand scheme of things that is still fairly impressive, especially with tomorrow's and next week's snow still to come.