Matty M
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Posts posted by Matty M
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
ECM handling the low pressure similar to the UKMO. Snow still gets further north but a lot more snow on this one for the south as well. No great amounts down here as there is marginality which probably affects covering amounts, but still we add probably an inch even in the far south.
Further north - it looks like out to 111hrs it is putting down around 2-4 inches extra snowfall fairly widely, especially across W.Midlands, Wales and into the NE.
Mike Poole ARPEGE is a terrible model for prediciting snowfall, has a known tendency to predict rain when clearly snow...even in the beast from the east it had light RAIN showers for some areas!
The ARPEGE snow issue is all because of graupel! The model has a hail/rain/snow/graupel elements.
Alot of graupel is actually snow, wet sow.. so if there is 60% graupel and 40% snow in the mix, it will not hash over the precipitation chart with snow lines!
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We await the EC 12z .. a little bit saner than 18 hours previous
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There is a big chance there could be a 2018 snow storm next week. Synopitc are delicious...just not quite the dreamy experience we had last year...
Never forget!!
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I feel sad for the UK. To be in this moment. Such inequality, such disparate groups of good meaning people. Get a grip. God speed.
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It is funny-- and i think...I hope I do allude to this now.
This is nationally, internationally as close as we get. Perhaps this is why we love it?
At this moment of 96hr+ charts....we are all dreaming of delivering a great personal experience....
But...we will soon separate.... we will soon no longer frequent this forum....
Madness will ensue,,,,, anger....ecstasy ..
usually....the majority on here experience...S and SE England
Last year.... the bullseye hit Dublin, Ireland. I was there and it was a real immense moment in history...not to exaggerate... but it was...
We are all on here for a reason... but we all deep down relish a storm or a snow storm because it brings out real life humanity......we crave that moment where we can do something....where nature rules...no doubt...
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I would be fairly confident it will sit in the mild 20 percent of members in the ENS update.
Nothing lost tonight, just more food for though and to ensure we don't get complacent.
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Here is a picture of 'Hill Snow'
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Yes, low coming out of Newfoundland is just too super charged on this run, we need to see it moderated in future runs.
Nothing solved tonight..
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Very similar to UKM144hr so will tell us what is the likelist scenario
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EC T144 not ideal but I will reserve judgement until T168
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Excellent 12z GFS it must be said. Something similar from the ECMWF and we are in good standing.
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ICON is an improvement from the 00z so a good trend. Remaining positive as we head towards the next few model updates.
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We that frigid air going to exit the US it does mean there would be a sharp baroclinic zone near Newfoundland and likely to spawn some serious low pressure systems which could topple the block after T192hrs
Otherwise a stellar 6z run.
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Final chart from ICON 18z a bit of a tease
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Yeah it does indicate that the further north you are the better chance you will be on the cold side of the trough by day 10..
Operational note an outlier but in cluster of 10% of milder solutions.
By the time you take a look at Aberdeen plume, this becomes clearer to eyeball..
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- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Apols....London
London...Manchester
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Dublin and London, please do not repost.
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Ironically the EC ENS is very good!! Large cluster 60% or more going 850hPas below -6degC At day 10
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EC Operational big warm outlier as expected
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The temperatures shown above illustrate the EC Op will be a wild outlier later on.
Uncertainty still very very high.
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It would be just our luck of late if that trough stalled to the west at 192hrs like on this evening's EC
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Disappointing 192hr chart from the EC.
It's not all lose yet. That mild pulse at 192hr had barely any support in previous ENS
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Ground hog day today. More hunting in fantasy land unfortunately.
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Interesting 18z so far. If those upgrades were magnified further tomorrow......
Interesting the ENS clustering from the ECMWF shows the Op on top end for Dublin and lots of member keeping below the -6 line
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Matty M
Assessing the IR satellite of STORM EUNICE at 21z and comparing to the simulated ECMWF 12z IR Forecast for 21z it seems meteorologically sound to conclude the system is somewhat more developed at this time than progged by the ECMWF 12z output with a more structured and defined centre.
Best of luck to all in the coming days and take care.