[Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 3]

Greta you are all getting good dump of snow.

As the day goes on, looks like other areas, east ,southern and central areas will jion in due to the low tracking over Scotland.

This could be on eto remember!!!!!!!!

Let it snow

[Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 3]

It does look like we'll have westerlies for a time as the low pushes south. Firstly, the GFS at 6pm tomorrow showing the low pushing further southwest, bringing westerlies to central areas:

The UKMO is quite different even at this range, bringing the low further south earlier, meaning the winds begin to turn to an easterly and the snow risk transfers to the East of Scotland by tomorrow evening:

In terms of snowfall risk, I think the northwest of Scotland, including all of the Hebrides, Mull etc. has to be favoured tomorrow, as well as Glasgow, Renfrewshire, Ayrshire etc and possibly the central Highlands and Morayshire. There is a significant, though lesser, risk of the showers moving across the central belt as well, particularly later in the day. Since showers are so hard to predict, some places mentioned will see much more snow than others, though places on the western side of the Highlands and central and western lowland areas should see most. Accumulations are possible almost anywhere, with some favoured lowland areas receiving 6 inches, with 2-4 inches quite widely in the west. Tomorrow night, the risk appears to shift to the east of Scotland, but again this will be very much the case of radar watching close to the time. Beyond that, it's precipitation FI!!

I agree with your thoughts, but I am quite surprised that in the short range they are not agreed on the track of the Low. I guess that this is the reason on Beeb 24 weather they have the whole of Scotland snowing on Monday, as they are also unsure of the track. Also MO warning for Monday covers all areas for the same reason. Will be intresting times for us on the east side....wind direction could make the differance of a few inches. Here's hoping.

[Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 3]

Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. Western areas finally progged to see frequent snow showers - but the interest for us in the east is exactly how well these get blown inland. I can think of many instances recently with rain showers forecast only for the widely spreading west across the central belt. A morning of radar watching ...

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Very much so. It looks possible that quite a few showers will make it east, especially later in the day when the wind swings to more of a westerly for central areas. The Met Office do mention it in their forecast for eastern areas tomorrow so I think it could be quite an interesting day. I for one prefer convective snow showers to frontal snow as there is much less certainty and more scope for upgrades, like Thursday's event. Also, with most frontal snow you end up with rain at some point spoiling the snowfall, or the mild air moving in straight after, while with convective situations snow can stick around for longer. In any case, it looks like those in western areas will finally see some significant snowfall tomorrow, unless the curse of the Met Office warning comes into play!! Oh, and well done to those in the Western Isles who appear to be getting a better dumping from this evening's showers than most people have had from an easterly and a band of frontal snow from the north!! Minima watching tonight will be very interesting, I reckon, though records are not under threat just yet.

LS

I take from this that you fairy sure that we will get a run of Westerly winds? Going into Sunday night and Monday, what do you expect the wind to do and greatest snowfall risk to be?

[Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 3]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Thats quite a rash to the NW of Scotland.

Intresting to see what direction they swing across in!!

Hopefully make it through the gap in the central belt

[Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 3]

Hi all.

I have just been a visitor on here for a while but thought I would join in. I have a good handle on whats going on.

Good blast of snow at lunchtime today but passed quick same as the rest of you.

Looking through all the runs, still unclear where the centre of the "low" is going to end up Sunday/Monday.

This is critical to who gets the largest falls.UKMO looks as if it will sit over SE Scotland thus giving another feed of E-NE to North half of Scotland and N-NW down the west coast.

GSF has the centre just off the west coast so more like SW winds across Scotland. I think that were it ends up will have huge bearing on snowfall over the next 50 hours.

Any thougts ???