Winter Monsoon
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Posts posted by Winter Monsoon
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All of the LRF models are going for a zonal January, now some may not place too much faith in these but when you have a full house all singing from the same hymn sheet then ignore them at your peril. I think too many place all their faith on teleconnections and strat warming, none of these guarantee the UK cold, they are just indicators of the overall NH pattern. Until we start seeing updates from the MetO about changes in the long wave pattern, then any wishes for cold are hope casting at best.
Eh?
Let me get this right, your writing off jan on the here say of the Meto (thats basically what it is) and because all 'LRF' models say no to cold?? The same Meto and models that recently all predicted an easterly at the same time so all singing from the same hymm sheet that NEVER materialised. On the same models that currently cant decide whats going to happen after +144 Let alone next month??
You choose to ingore the fact that we currently have a displaced PV and will currently continue to see a displced PV right upto the 'Forcast Warmng' I think that thats a prettty rare event, so considering this dont you think that the Meto (who are always right yes?) and ALL models are going to strugle.
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Up to 9.2C this run at 10 hpa and starting to show at the more southern latitudes in the high res output.
Would i be right in saying those are record temps??
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Hi,
Been looking back through the pages on this forum trying to find the strat thread that went up in 2009. Im specifically looking to see if there was a split/displacement/warming towards the end of november of that year and the time delay to the 1st real cold snowy weather i had at around 18th December.
I cant find the thread though
can anyone help? -
Just to verify a canadian warming is in effect a sudden warming??? And to put into perspective a Split followed by displacement is quite special?
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Just a quick question, i hate to ask here but dont know where else to ask this.
In relation to winter 2009/2010 are we seeing somthing of a similar magnitude in regards to cold? and a high ammount of PPn with this?
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I think its more to do with driver skills. Most people in this country just simply cannot drive properly. Face with snow/ice/wind/rain and the problem is even worse.
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Getting some good Light shows here in warrington at the mo. Anyone know where its headed, cant see at the mo cos im in work
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Another downgrade coming up on the GFS 12z which ties in with the Met Office forecast, everything is going to be shunted further east meaning less of a window of opportunity.
Wow you got that when were only upto t36 on the run. Perhaps wait untill it finishes before posting?
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Models looking excellent for us again..... not!!! Did anyone get any snow at all then? Still feels cold out there and ice still hanging on milder air looks to be working its way south tho
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Oh goodie lets all look forwards to summer where we get 30c for two weeks, oh wait..............
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Misting up here in warrington, i asume that the warmer air lying over the colder ground now. Just rained here all day
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lol did we all honestly think that we were going to get snow with 850's @ 0c+ ??
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Sadly for you guys the GFS/NMM has done a better job modelling the milder pool of 850hpa air over the NW than the NAE, and on its 12z run it has fallen in line with the other models. A bit of a shame bit there you go!
What you mean fallen into line with other models??? its not finished its run yet has it?
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Rain in warrington nothing special. Spring may have to wait if the models are right.
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Wont it turn to rain as it warms up during the day?
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Sorry My Bad, i just checked meto again i must have had a page cashed becasue it only showe dice oreviously now its showing ice and snow.
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i think youll at least see some snow even if it turns to rain, Also now parts of the north west are covered by a snow weather warning
Where? MO has frozen rain at best.
this winter has been such a let down. I thought last year wasnt much cop but this years just been terrible. I used to be a fan of Strat temps and TC's being the best indicator of whats comming up but now that they are pointing to Blocking and the models shout NO i begin to wonder. Maybe if the signals had appeared at beggining of dec or jan we would be snowed in still but hey spring is on the way.Im expecting cold night and cool days and thats it, anything else is a bonus
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BT is correct. It is not optimism, it is proof. 500hpa charts seem supportive of HLB becoming more organised and a shift towards blocking heights around Greenland.
And its total rubbish to dismiss winter on Feb 5.
Also, it is insane to suggest Feb sun will affect snow depth, perhaps towards the last week of feb, but even then, colder SSTs and less modification allows a colder source than the same date in january, even with a stronger sun.
Some of the ranting on here with no reasoning from some moaners just makes me laugh.
Im not moaning. I actually did quite well from last night got about 2 inches.....its probably all gone now though. And that's what im fearing. Last week when it was even colder as soon as the sun hit any frost it melted it within 15mins. Come end of Feb sun will be stronger. So yeh there maybe blocking etc but we need real deep low temps and they simply arent showing on the models. Models lastnigh were way better for cold but since then theres been a shift away from it.
Im just trying to be practicle here im not moaning if you think i am then sorry.
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Love your optimisum BT gawd i hoep your right but i have this horible feeling that what we had lastnight will be it till next year. 2009/10 was the coldest and snowiest winter i had seen in the last 10 years these last 2 havent been as cold or snowy for me.
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Sorry HC - but how very wrong you are.
A quick look at the 500mb anomaly charts will tell you that we're due a very blocked month with winds from the North or East dominating. Way above average pressure over Scadinavia & Greenland meaning blocking out East before retrogressing over Greenland. Look for waa over Greenland promoting high-latitude blocking.
Come the end of February, I guarantee you will have to eat your words, as you'll probably be complaining that your pipes have frozen. Given the output we're getting from the ECM - especially the ensemble suite with even the unreliable GFS hinting at blocking to the NW at times, it's a pretty silly statement to make, especially considering some of the largest snowfalls recorded have been in Mid February to mid March!
Yes but with the strength of the sun its gone in a day or two. Seen it happen way too many times in Feb, March, April.
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3.7C now with the sun starting to melt the fog.
End of the first cold spell in Cheshire. Wonder if that was the last one this winter?
I kind of tried to mention that i didnt think next week was going to be much cop for us int he MOD thread and that i thought this was the last for this winter and i got shot down for it
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Saintpeter, on 05 February 2012 - 10:02 , said:
a lot worse. when we get snowd in we can get our house keys out of the car god help him. how do they get the house keys :lol:
it been known to bring planes down too
funnily enough snow is made in the same way as freezing rain.
Tiny droplets of moisture super cool and when they bump into each other they freeze instantly. as the other moisture droplets tuch the already frozen flakes they get bigger and bigger till they hit the ground as snow.
The power of ice! Helped bring down Air France 447 when supercooled water lodged in the pitot tubes of A330 at 35000ft.
Computer was then getting false airspeed readings,switched off and plane goes into unrecovered stall.
Thats technically not what happened. Yes the Pitot was blocked so sending false reading to the auto pilot. IT was an altitude change that caused it, they i think were cleared from 330 to 350 so they climbed but because the auto throttle/AP was getting a false reading it didnt increase power to the engines.
Thus as they climbed they lost airspeed. Now normally as you get close to a stall youll get the stick shaker, butin this instance as far as i remember the stick shaker was also linked to the faulty pitot so didnt engage. It was night and the pilot's didnt have the horizon as a ref point or they would have realised sooner that the angle of attack the auto pilot had taken was way out of normal flight envolope. Unfortunatly by the time the pilots had realised what was happening it was too late the plane stalled rolled onto it's back and from there on the situation was lost.
Very rarely can a commercial airliner recover if it rolls onto its back they simply arent designed for that eventuality. Infact i can think of only one case where the pilots managed to recover from such a situation and that was a china airlines flight that stalled in turbulance and somehow by skill and pure luck they manged to recover with about 5000ft feet left. Ironically NTSB blamed the pilots for getting into that situation and then commendating them for being able to recover and save 200+ lives. Theres pics of that plane after it had landed virtually all the elevators had been ripped of that plan along with landing bay doors and to this date no crew has ever been able to do what those pilots did in a simulator
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HA 2 cars left in works carpark yesterday still covered in ice. Lots of Fog about be careful if your on the roads
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Models to me dont look like much cop for me in my area, wales, south west and cumbria. To my inexperienced eye i dont see -5 850's return to the uk proper untill +60 and thats really East/south East and central at a push. ECM its at +144 and covers much more of the country, briefly. However it also appears to be dry. If were looking at trends, then i would say the trend is not to push the cold air we saw on the 12z yesterday back into the uk.
I really do think that this is it for us. God i hope im wrong
can anyone help?
Saintpeter, on 05 February 2012 - 10:02 , said:
Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Im sorry Where in my post did i say that??
Realisticly how can you take anything that any model is churning out post 144 and sooner? We have and probably will see changes, some minor and some major which go on in the grand scheme of things to have an impact upto and past +384(January)
And im sorry and i mean no disrespect by this but unless the meto have a crystal ball that allows them to see into the future, i fail to see how they can also reliably and accuratly predict whats going to happen after christmas day. As the models are varying so much.