[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion]

But are they pre-recorded though? Others have said it was live. And the latest fax charts back up the forecast. It could all change and shift further east, but i think this is how the Met see it playing out as things stand.

Even if it was live, i don't see how they could have been including the 12Z data as it was still rolling out at 4.30pm and they would need time to consider and incorporate into the forcast.

As for the graphics, don't even get me started

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion]

Hi All

As I understand things the latest N24 forcast would have been recrded ahead of the 12Z runs. On this basis they are already potentially out of date, so little point in getting overly worried / excited by them.

Also, as said by others exact locations will change between now and tommorow as it is virtually impossible to anticipate snowfall distribution in advance. Same is true of rainfall in normal circumstances but nobody ever notices because 5mm of rain feels no different to 15mm, but with Snow its a different story

Jason

[General Model Output Discussion]

Hi Jason,

Welcome to the bear pit

The North Sea is MBY and, if the breakdown comes from there, I'll get rain early in the breakdown. Somehow, I don't think that it will come from that direction, and I think it will take a little longer than we currently expect. ( Having said that, I've probably jinxed the cold spell)

Hi, cheers for that

I've picked my moment, looking at the thread over the last twenty mins

My thinking is that warm air will get dragged up by the low pressure as it moves SW towards Portugal. Typical really as in reality it's the reverse effect of the low that ran through the channell a few days ago. I think it was the 87 cold spell that ended in a similar way with a warm front from the East. This would result in more snow than that (drizzly affair from memory) but the eventual outcome would be similar.

I will be very happy to be proved wrong though!

Jason

[General Model Output Discussion]

I concur Nick,

Those air temps progged on 18z for sunday next week just look plain wrong to me.It's FI though so probably irelevant.

What a memorable spell of weather we have before us.The really colder stuff being dragged down from Norway is just about to spread across the UK.

Hi All

First post here, so be kind

There is little doubt IMO that most will see snow over the next week, but i can't help but feel that we are starting to see the likely breakdown emerge. I've noticed recent runs have started playing up this Low over France. GFS tends to be pretty good at picking up on these features and i suspect its onto something. I think we need to look south east for the breakdown. This will give lots of snow in the areas highlighted by 'North Sea' but might not be so good for Kent and Essex (Essex being MBY) as milder air may turn the snow back to rain more quickly here.

Its only my view based on experience, but i expect GFS to develop this further over coming runs.

Still a good week of cold weather to enjoy first though!

Jason