Jamie R

Fingers crossed? I have everything crossed! We have had some very light snow this morning (whilst i was ice skating on some flooded marshland) But temps have crept up to 3'c now so my faith is low.

I know this isn't a classic channel low situation, although it still drifts into the channel, but as i said before, the wind direction is what will really make the difference, and it seems we will have onshore winds for quite a while, and that really wont be great for quite a few locations down south on the coast. I expect it to turn to snow on the other side of the solent a few hours before it does here, but it concerns me that it will turn to snow here a little late and give but a mere wet covering. I have to mention though that being on an island in the english channel usually has its advantages during a cold spell, as we tend to get higher precip amounts and get a good covering, even when other S uk locations are dry.

Looking great down here on the coast.......if you like rain and 6'c! Thats the latest GFS run anyway! It does turn more to snow by 9am tomorrow morning, but by then the ground will have warmed up loads and any snow that falls will take a hell of a long time to settle. If we can't get snowfall in early Jan with a channel low, when can we get snowfall!? (sorry to moan on, im just gutted)

Sounds fun! Berkshire 8cm Hampshire 12cm Isle of Wight 0cm Dorset 18cm

I think the rain/sleet will turn to snow, but this wont happen until the winds start to come from the land which will be anywhere from the northern quadrant, (WNW to ENE) and once that happens, we will all see the snow although Portsmouth and other places on the other side of the water will probably see it a few hours before here. The only problem with that is how much precipitation will be left before it clears? Hopefully quite a bit, but this winter has been a funny one for snow, so im not holding out too much hope!

I expect you are right, but in the lighter stuff it will be sleety wet rubbish, and with that in mind, i would muuuch rather have a cold crisp sunny day like today, rather than wet snow and sleet! No use to man nor beast!

Don't worry, i feel the same! The problem is the wind direction. It will be coming in off the sea for most of tomorrow and as you probably know, the sea is much warmer in early Jan than say mid Feb. Infact if these conditions happened in February, it would almost 100% be snow! Up over the highest hill tops may see a little snow, also there is a small chance that places in the far north of the island might too. The strange thing is, we have weather warnings over the IOW for heavy snow, but all the forecasts say rain, but if you think back to all out snow events, the Met office always miss out on warnings for the IOW and then we seem to end up with loads of snow! Feb 2009, April 2008, had no warnigs of snow and we got quite a bit. I bet by tomorrow morning they will have removed the warnings from the IOW, and then maybe we will be in with a chance

I noticed how high the Dp's were too, i think its game over to be honest! But i guess there is still the chance for evaporative cooling (like i said in my last post) but i really think thats being wishful!

The latest model updates are bad for the IOW. A small low develops close to the island and we start off with SW winds that slowly back during the day to southerly then to the SE, before finally turning NE again by wednesday morning. The only places that appear to be at risk are the highest hills (ventnor down, St Catherines down) and even there will be a struggle due to the close proximity of the Channel. Our only hope is if the low doesn't develop quite so far west, we would then have a very slack flow over us which could then lead to evaporative cooling, and in turn bring many many inches, but honestly, thats a long shot at the moment.

Just watched BBC South today weather, she said rain or maybe sleet for the Isle of Wight. I still think that the east and north side of the island could see snowfall, as long as the winds remain very light. If the winds pick up to anything more than 10mph, i think it will be sleet at best before turning to snow on the back edge.

Well it dropped to -6.8'c here, with -4'c being quite wide spread on the IOW. Currently 0.6'c so plenty cold still

Hi folks, i thought i would join up seeing as im ill today and need to be amused! 1997 is correct BTW, it was in December due to a sinking scandi high and warm front pushing up from the SW. The day previous to it had a strong easterly and a few outbreaks of snow, but it was overnight that the front pushed through and produced many inches of snow away from the IOW east coast. Also last Feb there was a thundersnow event that gave Chale about 5 inches of snow in half an hour, but that was very localised. Anyway, back to this cold spell .......Going by the midnight model runs, we are in for some snow, thats for sure, even the borderline event for tomorrow is likely to give a dusting away from the islands west coast, also over the hills (as you would expect!) although the lower areas on the western half of the island will probably see wet snow or maybe even sleet for a time. The precipitation amounts will only be small though (much like a couple of weeks ago). I have got my eye on a potential event for wednesday, which if it happens will be pure snow, and with upper air of around -8'c and winds from the northern quadrant, it just couldn't fall as anything but snow. But once again its the amount that bothers me, because the GFS model predicts quite a bit of snow for us, but the Met fax charts only show a small trough in the SE, and whilst i still think we would get a little bit of snow from that, things could well change. As for the end of the week, its unlikely we will see much snow, even over the weekend. The high will be positioned wrongly for a start and we will have very cold NE winds but probably overcast with a few bits of snow here and there, but as you know, things change! Anyway thats my take on things