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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze
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Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The UKMO is one of those where all is not lost...but it's not a quick route. It fits with what we've seen over the last 24 hours. ICON is at the pessimistic end and GFS is at the optimistic end. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's nowhere near. Look at troughing upstream off the Labrador coast and around the N Atlantic in general. Look at the positively tilted LP about to cut across the top of the HP (too much energy around the top). It's night and day to the GFS at the same time. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is what happens when upstream finally plays ball...much nicer cut back of heights into Greenland Don't get excited though, ICON and UKMO are nowhere near as good. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ICON phases the low heights to our N (as BA noted was in the GEFS ensembles earlier)...well it's about to anyway This would leave heights to our S so a poor run in the more immediate timeframe. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I haven't really been checking truth be told, however it seems kinda logical if the jet is a tad too strong and the HP sinks too far S? Edit: the mean is slightly flatter at D10/11 compared to the 12z, more energy across the top. 18z first... -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A common theme of the GFS seems to be that we may get one more shot at getting an E'ly some time between Christmas and New Year -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mike, I think the telling thing is the dearth of op runs actually bringing the wintry nirvana we all crave, even in FI. The GFS and EC just play out the scenario that I suspected would happen from the outset...so why would I be inclined to change my overriding prognosis from what we've seen today? The 0z runs gave some room for optimism (bar EC)...which I noted at the time...but the direction of travel looks reasonably one way on the weight of balance. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's the EC and GFS showing the HP slip SE without being able to gain a foothold. Up stream is ballsing things up for us. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve seen them do week ahead forecasts based on an out of date ECM op run before now. At least the graphics used anyway. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Using the 0z ECM of last night? -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Decent...a few tweaks and it would be excellent. Namely slightly more negative tilt on Atlantic troughing and a slightly better cut back of cold to the east. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Upstream shenanigans certainly aren't doing us any favours on some of the operational runs. That's the key to getting a more GEM like set up- how the Canadian sector works out. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS is fine...less of a wham bam thank you mam and more of a foundation builder for future longevity run. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Really is an impressive trop led two pronged attack on the vortex this run. Anything close to this verifies and we'd have multiple tickets into the mid winter raffle -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A lot more pressure on the SPV coming too on this run...which is why I mentioned better for longevity -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
My optimism level has lifted slightly... Fair way away from going all in however. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Clear upgrade if you want longevity if you ask me... Less vortex Canadian side and bitter cold to the NE wanting to push SW. Better Arctic profile too. Just might not deliver immediately. -
Wasn't it the 27th or 28th December 2000 that a polar low swept down across the UK? I can remember I couple of inches falling here. Was a cold period of weather.
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Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I disagree, it's called bitter experience of what I see every winter season, last year culminating in a high profile spat (thankfully one I wasn't involved in). However, let's leave it at that...I've put my point across. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's more of the thing we want to see going forward...and more importantly we want to see it creeping closer in the modelling. Notice how imperative it is to see Arctic & Canadian heights relent. Eases the pressure around the top of the anticyclone and allows it to gain more latitude. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes the HP won't fully sink away until into Jan (if this is the path we go down) but perhaps sink away from where we need it in the more immediate timeframes. The analogy I think of is a small pebble being caught in a current and just constantly turning over on itself rather than being buoyed to the surface. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No. Seasonal models by design are optimised for the extended period (incorporating many many ensemble members). Operational models are not. The ensemble runs derived from the main operational are of more use days 10-14 but even they tend to be subject to volatility because the number of members is literally nothing in the scheme of things. D9 GEFS mean= UK HP -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'll personally be ECSTATIC if we can shift that HP sufficiently north. My fingers are certainly crossed, that's for sure. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Cheshire Freeze replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Huge difference between long range ensemble forecasting and using operational NWP.