Cheshire Freeze

This is what happens when upstream finally plays ball...much nicer cut back of heights into Greenland Don't get excited though, ICON and UKMO are nowhere near as good.

ICON phases the low heights to our N (as BA noted was in the GEFS ensembles earlier)...well it's about to anyway This would leave heights to our S so a poor run in the more immediate timeframe.

I haven't really been checking truth be told, however it seems kinda logical if the jet is a tad too strong and the HP sinks too far S? Edit: the mean is slightly flatter at D10/11 compared to the 12z, more energy across the top. 18z first...

A common theme of the GFS seems to be that we may get one more shot at getting an E'ly some time between Christmas and New Year

Mike, I think the telling thing is the dearth of op runs actually bringing the wintry nirvana we all crave, even in FI. The GFS and EC just play out the scenario that I suspected would happen from the outset...so why would I be inclined to change my overriding prognosis from what we've seen today? The 0z runs gave some room for optimism (bar EC)...which I noted at the time...but the direction of travel looks reasonably one way on the weight of balance.

That's the EC and GFS showing the HP slip SE without being able to gain a foothold. Up stream is ballsing things up for us.

I’ve seen them do week ahead forecasts based on an out of date ECM op run before now. At least the graphics used anyway.

Using the 0z ECM of last night?

Agree. Me and Pete didn’t see eye to eye in the early days but I like the guy now. He means well and has a better ‘heart’ than a good few on this forum.

Decent...a few tweaks and it would be excellent. Namely slightly more negative tilt on Atlantic troughing and a slightly better cut back of cold to the east.

Upstream shenanigans certainly aren't doing us any favours on some of the operational runs. That's the key to getting a more GEM like set up- how the Canadian sector works out.

GFS is fine...less of a wham bam thank you mam and more of a foundation builder for future longevity run.

Really is an impressive trop led two pronged attack on the vortex this run. Anything close to this verifies and we'd have multiple tickets into the mid winter raffle

A lot more pressure on the SPV coming too on this run...which is why I mentioned better for longevity

My optimism level has lifted slightly... Fair way away from going all in however.

Clear upgrade if you want longevity if you ask me... Less vortex Canadian side and bitter cold to the NE wanting to push SW. Better Arctic profile too. Just might not deliver immediately.

Wasn't it the 27th or 28th December 2000 that a polar low swept down across the UK? I can remember I couple of inches falling here. Was a cold period of weather.

I disagree, it's called bitter experience of what I see every winter season, last year culminating in a high profile spat (thankfully one I wasn't involved in). However, let's leave it at that...I've put my point across.

That's more of the thing we want to see going forward...and more importantly we want to see it creeping closer in the modelling. Notice how imperative it is to see Arctic & Canadian heights relent. Eases the pressure around the top of the anticyclone and allows it to gain more latitude.

Yes the HP won't fully sink away until into Jan (if this is the path we go down) but perhaps sink away from where we need it in the more immediate timeframes. The analogy I think of is a small pebble being caught in a current and just constantly turning over on itself rather than being buoyed to the surface.

No. Seasonal models by design are optimised for the extended period (incorporating many many ensemble members). Operational models are not. The ensemble runs derived from the main operational are of more use days 10-14 but even they tend to be subject to volatility because the number of members is literally nothing in the scheme of things. D9 GEFS mean= UK HP

I'll personally be ECSTATIC if we can shift that HP sufficiently north. My fingers are certainly crossed, that's for sure.

Huge difference between long range ensemble forecasting and using operational NWP.

Thanks Kasim.

Pretend? I've no idea what you're on about. As I say every year, I say what I see and then go a step further and explain what I expect to be the way forward. Whether that be cold or mild, wet or dry. If I'm wrong I'm wrong...I don't disappear.