Steve C

As I said, I have my opinion, which you know. I need no other, as I tend to work things out for myself. One other thing, the Environment Agency points out the 8 inch rainfall deficit in 2010/11. Of these 8 inches, 3 were from April 2010 and 2011, yet the agency then states that April rain will make no difference to groundwater! Of course it will. Whether it's through water perculation ( okay, not so good as winter rain, due to plant growth, longer days, warmer temperatures etc.) or through less demand from ourselves. The EA might not have noticed that April is going to end up a pretty chilly month too. I heard a spokesman from the EA last week stating that March had 43% of average rainfall over England and Wales (undoubtedly true) which had followed similar statistics from the winter months. Blatantly untrue, as although the winter overall was dry (low to mid eighties percent of average?) December was actually a wet month. I really don't like insidious misinformation like that. I'll state again that I believe there is no problem with the weather. It'll redress the natural balance. The problem is more that we are probably consuming too much on this crowded island, given our current infrastructure. Maybe the fact that 10 out of the last 14 years have been wet ones, means that we've been caught out by these last two.

Why should people need to read the drought thread to form an opinion? Personally I didn't realise there was such a thread and I definitely won't be seeking it out. I'm firmly of the opinion that Mother Nature has a habit of redressing balances. I also wouldn't mind betting that every historical hosepipe ban, or other supply restriction, has not made a jot of difference in the long run. For instance the drought of 1976 ( which was far more severe than this one, despite the hype ) was effectively remedied by a very wet two month period, starting during the August Bank Holiday. No-one was talking about water shortages by the end of that Autumn. Having said all that, I can't understand Anthony wanting the weather to be constantly dry. That would be an utter disaster for this country.

Just finished a walk. Took note of a developing cumulus cloud, about 40 minutes ago. I only noted it as it was moving in my direction and as I said, it was developing. It passed over me and delivered a light shower. Now it's a towering cumulonimbus, with a well developed anvil cloud. I'd now be certain that the rain under it is no longer light...

Yesterday was pretty pleasant here and I managed to cut my grass, which I was pleased about. Dry till late afternoon, when the predictable heavy showers moved in. It look like early and midweek might provide quite a lot of rain in this area - probably enough to put my area into a rainfall surplus for the year to date.

I'd rather it rained now and May, followed by a decent summer, than happened last year. I'm hopeful this may be the case. I've been checking on how dry England has been, compared to normal and found these datasets on the Met Office site. http://www.metoffice...te/uk/datasets/ Doing a few quick calculations, it looks like only 4 out of the 12 years this century (the years 20XX) have been drier than average, although admittedly 2010 and 2011 were among them. 2000 was a seriously wet year. The years 2007 & 2008 deviated further from the long term average (being wet) than 2010 & 2011 (being dry) Looking way back, it would be interesting to see the response of water companies / government et al, if we had a year like 1921, which had a rainfall deficit greater than 2010&11 combined. I personally think this year will end up being wet overall, but that's just obviously a guess. I also think these drought scares will become more frequent in the future; not due to the weather per se, but rather the increasing population and our management of water resources.

Had one here (Hatfield Peverel) recently too.

No storms here yet, but I'd be very surprised if I hadn't experienced one by this time next week.

I remember seeing a funnel cloud just after leaving work, during the late 1990's in the Colchester area. I'd driven through some extremely heavy rain and then there is was, right in front of me; I'd guess less than 100m away! The rotation was very obvious. I'm not sure whether it touched the ground and became a tornado, but it must have been a close thing. I was too surprised to stop and properly observe. On reaching home, I phoned the Anglia News weather number to report it, but no-one answered the phone. However other reports then corroborated my experience. Nothing like the central plains of the USA, but nonetheless very memorable.

Definitely dreary here at the moment. It looks like the chilly and unsettled weather is here for most of the rest of this month.

This event sparked my interest in the weather, as a young kid. I remember being kept awake by it on the night of 2nd January and noticing the number of mature trees that had fallen in Brightlingsea, Essex, the next day. Naively I thought that workmen who were clearing them from people's gardens had actually cut them down at first! I'd think that in Norfolk, this weather event must have eclipsed any storm since and probably for many years beforehand too. Like others have said though, it's largely forgotten.

Just reading through old posts - researching the storm of 1976.. I guess Stoke are doing all right now. :winky:

To me, the front on Sunday looks weak, so a wet, chilly forecast may be a tad pessimistic. It looks like the major activity will start late on Monday ( and hopefully won't spoil the weekend for people )

April showers then, just like March winds... I can remember one windy day, when an elderly filing clerk, in one of my first jobs, made the comment "We don't normally get winds like this, except in March!" The date was 25th January 1990. That comment still makes me chuckle.

It's been a surprisingly good day here today, after the rain first thing. Mostly sunny, if a little bit chilly.

22 degrees in summer is fine by me. I do like those very warm spells though, where you can sit outside socialising, while lightly clothed all evening. I suppose these can make for uncomfortable sleeping though, so ideally weekends only! B) I'm not really that fussed about Spring and while I prefer dry and fine weather, I do appreciate that adequate rainfall is needed. I guess very few people ( sweaty, very obese types?) would be pleased with a cold, dull, wet summer?

Yep, sunny at work (Hatfield Peverel) and nowhere near the amount of rain we had at home, although the rain had stopped prior to me leaving. It sounds like sun is only temporary though.

I guess Easter will be mediocre to okay, rather than downright miserable. We've had a fair amount of rain here overnight. I got pretty wet walking to the pub at 9 last night and it's still raining quite heavily now. It'll be interesting to see whether my workplace, which isn't a huge distance away, but might be south of the main activity, has had much.

Looking at a couple of charts for tomorrow, I'm wondering whether we are going to get significant rain in the south and east of this region at all now? :huh: Time will tell.

I really don't like the thaw stage of snow, so a snowfall immediately followed by a thaw, is never going to get me excited. Horses for courses I suppose.

I've got to say that the scenario in Spring, where we get a northeast breeze, which can lead to a week or so of cold, sunless weather (whereas many parts away from the East coast have pretty reasonable weather at the same time.. ) is generally my least favourite type of weather.

I guess those charts show a reasonable, if none too spectacular Easter. Any significant shift west of the high pressure would likely mean cold and unsettled in this part of the World - I hope it doesn't happen, at least over the holiday period anyway. Can't get remotely excited about Wednesday, whether it's rain, sleet or snow. Even if it did snow, it would immediately become a slushy mess and be gone in hours. Let's face it, it looks a pretty grim day; cold, wet and windy. Central heating on full again. Still, at least it's in the working week ( for those not on holiday )

Thanks John, as usual an informative post. It looks very uncertain for Easter still. My brother asked me for an Easter forecast earlier today and I said it would either be unsettled and cold, with mostly northerly winds, or else mostly fair, although not as warm as recently ( a bit like today ) all depending on the position of the Atlantic high. With regards to the snow of four years ago, it's gone from my memory, although I do remember the snowfall it was referring to when it said the worst April snow for nearly two decades. This was late in April 1981 and caused much disruption over the Midlands and north of England. We had nothing in east Essex though. I've been researching and the only snowfall event in April that I can see that would have got me excited in the last 100 years, in Essex, would have been that of 14th April 1966. This seems to have been a major event and coincided with the lowest recorded CET max for April of 2.3C in the 20th Century. The thaw over the next couple of days would have been relatively slow too.

I don't think so. Most people who have searched out and registered with a weather forum are quite aware of how unusual the March warmth was. Personally I'm not looking forward to cold rain (or even a brief period of wet snow) especially if it occurs over Easter. We definitely need rain, but I won't be looking out the window and jumping for joy if we get cold rain, with a cutting northeast wind. I'm in the camp of wondering why people are excited about this in April too. Let's be honest, if we had a significant snowfall in April, which lay without much in the way of a thaw, for more than a couple of days, in this part of England, it would be a once in more than a lifetime event. It's not going to happen now, so why get excited? That's the big difference between Christmas and Easter snow. Changing the subject, I went out for a reasonable length walk around the countryside north of Chelmsford yesterday and noticed that a couple of stream beds were completely dry. To have that situation in March is unbelievable. We definitely require rain, but I'd prefer a warmer variety. As someone has said though, the weather will do what it likes.

Yep, GFS has completely reversed again - reasonably similar to what it was a couple of days ago - basically now saying a cold wet and windy Easter; possibly cold enough to be wintry. To be honest I'm wondering why I'm even mentioning this. I've no real faith in models this far out.

Yes, looks that way. Still this current weather is pretty amazing, so can't ( or should I say, shouldn't? ) last.