johncoolj

How come we may only notice a change in winter why not summer too. the Jet Stream may retreat further south in winter only why is that would it not be summer spring etc too would this mean more east winds in winter rather then sw

I never new the n a c effects the jetstream do you mean it could cause a change in the jetstream as in not coming over the uk like it use too

Was there ever snow on bonfire night in Uk or Ireland if so anyone know the years there was snow. Must also point out last year on this forum most where saying warm normal winter ahead yet this year most are saying cold with snow just because of last years icy winter odds of another cold winter are low i would think

Has anyone else noticed this look the worst cold winters in uk notice anyting ? 1916-1917 1932-1933 1946-1947 1962-1963 1978-1979 1994-1995 2010-2011? 16 year gaps between them well i know 2009-10 was a cold one but what if the 2010-11 is the really cold one this is strange Cold winters usually come in groups, so it could be cold this winter. Also think of the 16 year cold winter pattern, 2011,1995,1979,1963,1947 WILL 2011 BE ANOTHER 63 OR 47 WINTER

Has anyone else noticed this look the worst cold winters in uk notice anyting ? 1916-1917 1932-1933 1946-1947 1962-1963 1978-1979 1994-1995 2010-2011? 16 year gaps between them well i know 2009-10 was a cold one but what if the 2010-11 is the really cold one this is strange Cold winters usually come in groups, so it could be cold this winter. Also think of the 16 year cold winter pattern, 2011,1995,1979,1963,1947 WILL 2011 BE ANOTHER 63 OR 47 WINTER

Snowstorm did u do a forcast last winter 2009 if so how did it go

the gulf stream is weaker then it should be and has been for 4 months now

where did you get the chart that shows the cold temps in dec cant find that one

have a look at this video on the gulf stream lastest info http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b11scOHE7sU

good post you seem to know a lot your say the gulf stream hasent got the power it should have what percent do you think its weakend by like 20 percent or what also will this effect uk ireland tem,ps this winter

its out folks joe bs winter euro forcast looks like a normal uk winter so mild and wet i bet To My European readers. You may have noticed a marked decrease in my postings in the last month or two. This is because of new duties I have here that really mean I have very little time to put forth the kind of honest effort that ethically I feel bound to when making a forecast. I have never backed away from a challenge, but I find my position, as far as trying to get out and there and keep you up to date, impossible to maintain. There is only one of me, only so many hours in a day and while my first love is the kind of pattern dissection needed to give you hints on your weather, I am no longer capable of doing this in a consistent fashion, because of these other things.. for Europe I have seen the emails wanting to know about the winter. Again, to put together a forecast and line things up the way I do, takes a long time, and what I now do takes away from that time. My gut feeling is the core of the cold this winter.. in relation to normals, runs from the Alps to the Balkans. I dont think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more things, precip will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter. i actually feel a bit guilty about putting out something like this because it is not how I do things.. I have a code I live by. On the other hand, I guess I did not realize how many of you follow me over there, and I am moved. I will try my best to put together a forecast, that right or wrong, I can feel I did my best with. Again the amount of time that has to be devoted to these new work requirements is close to 10 hours a week and that is time I spent researching things.. and may I add enjoying myself while I did it. I cant say that I enjoy what I am doing in this other option, but as the great Christian minister Oswald Chambers said, it is those that can find glory in drudgery that are actually reaching for the highest ideal.. Anyone can do something when its all chocolate and roses, which is what the challenge of putting together a Euro forecast is too me, a labor of love. Believe me I am trying.

have a look at this http://the.gulf.stream.died.in.2010.and.one.scientist.knew.it.four.years.ago.at.german.pages.de/

2010/11 Winter Weather Forecast Last winter saw below average temperatures and heavy snowfalls for a large part of December and January, before becoming slightly milder through February. But what are the indications for this winter? Will we see a return to the Atlantic driven, mild winters? Or will the cold and snowy weather continue? The reason last winter was so cold was due to an exceptionally negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) this meant that high pressure developed across Greenland and something known as Northern Blocking developed, this allowed freezing air to flood across Europe and over to us here Ireland in the UK. This winter? The indications are looking promising for another cold and snowy one. Firstly, we’ll take into account the Sea Surface Temperatures or SSTs, the chart below shows us both the warm and cold anomalies Sea Surface Temperatures Anomaly We also have areas of blue in the Mid Atlantic, this suggests that we’re likely to see high pressure developing and building up into the Atlantic, when this happens low pressure systems get stuck in the North Atlantic and subsequently, cooler air from the Arctic heads Southwards. Another thing to take into account is the low sunspot activity in the last 2 years or so. Historic data show that during times of low sunspot activity, the UK experiances unusually cold winters, 1962 being one of them. The Arctic Oscillation and North-Atlantic Oscillation are other things we should take into account, however because these are more variable and can change on a day to day basis, it’s much harder to use these to help forecast more than 5-10 days out, although we’ll take a look to see how they’re doing anyway. North Atlantic Oscillation Arctic Oscillation We also must take into account the fact that the Arctic has had one of the coldest summers on record, meaning we’re unlikely to have a problem with getting an embedded cold pool into place, ready to flood Southwards. Taking all these factors, and more into account. I think we’re likely to see a generally damp and dull start to Autumn, before things begin to turn increasingly cold as we move through October and into November. I’m forecasting another cold, and snowy period of weather, particularly from the middle of November through until the middle of January, before we see the Atlantic kicking into gear again bringing some mild, stormy weather to end the second half of winter. The Gulf Stream I don’t think I could create this forecast without mentioning the current state of the Gulf Stream. It’s something that’s been a hot topic amongst weather forums in the last few weeks, and here’s one of the reasons why. This graphic shows what the Gulf Stream was like in September last year. September 2009 September 2010 Winter 2010/11 Overview So just to summarize, I’m predicting a cold start to winter. I believe the first cold spell to take hold during the second part of September with frosts becoming more frequent across the United Kingdom and early snowfalls pushing down from the North and into Scotland and perhaps higher hills in Northern England. I expect the first half of winter to be generally cold and snowy, as cold if not colder than last year. I think it’ll be generally cold and snowy through November to the middle of January before high pressure begins to break down and the Atlantic takes over for the second half of the winter bringing spells of wet, mild and windy weather, with brief cold snaps as low pressure systems push Eastwards into the North Sea. The oranges/reds on the image above show us where above average sea surface temperatures have developed. The blues/purples show us where below average temperatures. If you look at the Pacific Ocean, you can see a large area of dark blue and purples. This is known as a phenomena called La Nina, and it’s a cooling of the Pacific Ocean. Although not fully understood, it is believed to lower global temperatures and bring colder weather to certain areas and that usually includes the UK. The NAO is currently forecasted to shoot up into a weak positive before slowly moving back down into a weak negative. This sudden change suggests we’re likely to see the Atlantic becoming slightly more active in the next couple of days, we’re likely to continue this unsettled and cool theme for the next week or so at least. When we have a negative NAO, we’re more likely to see high pressure developing in the Atlantic, when we see a positive NAO, we’re more likely to see low pressures developing, and in turn, turning our weather more unsettled. The AO is currently forecast to remain in a weak negative, perhaps becoming increasingly negative during the next 5-8 days. When we have a negative AO (as seen last winter) we have high pressure developing across the Arctic where we want it then if the correct conditions present themselves, that cold air will flood Southwards towards the UK. A positive AO means we see something called the Polar Vortex, which is a system of low pressure systems across the Arctic which make it far harder to lock ourselves into a cold pattern for more than a couple of days. And here’s what the Gulf Stream is looking like this year If you compare the two images above you can see there has definitely been a slowdown and slight decay of the Gulf Stream over the course of the last year, and this is what has gotten so many people interested. Whether this will have any effect on the weather in the coming months is yet to be seen, however.

2010/11 Winter Weather Forecast September 12, 2010Daniel SmithLeave a commentGo to commentsLast winter saw below average temperatures and heavy snowfalls for a large part of December and January, before becoming slightly milder through February. But what are the indications for this winter? Will we see a return to the Atlantic driven, mild winters? Or will the cold and snowy weather continue? The reason last winter was so cold was due to an exceptionally negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) this meant that high pressure developed across Greenland and something known as Northern Blocking developed, this allowed freezing air to flood across Europe and over to us here in the UK. This winter? The indications are looking promising for another cold and snowy one. Firstly, we’ll take into account the Sea Surface Temperatures or SSTs, the chart below shows us both the warm and cold anomalies Sea Surface Temperatures Anomaly We also have areas of blue in the Mid Atlantic, this suggests that we’re likely to see high pressure developing and building up into the Atlantic, when this happens low pressure systems get stuck in the North Atlantic and subsequently, cooler air from the Arctic heads Southwards. Another thing to take into account is the low sunspot activity in the last 2 years or so. Historic data show that during times of low sunspot activity, the UK experiances unusually cold winters, 1962 being one of them. The Arctic Oscillation and North-Atlantic Oscillation are other things we should take into account, however because these are more variable and can change on a day to day basis, it’s much harder to use these to help forecast more than 5-10 days out, although we’ll take a look to see how they’re doing anyway. North Atlantic Oscillation Arctic Oscillation We also must take into account the fact that the Arctic has had one of the coldest summers on record, meaning we’re unlikely to have a problem with getting an embedded cold pool into place, ready to flood Southwards. Taking all these factors, and more into account. I think we’re likely to see a generally damp and dull start to Autumn, before things begin to turn increasingly cold as we move through October and into November. I’m forecasting another cold, and snowy period of weather, particularly from the middle of November through until the middle of January, before we see the Atlantic kicking into gear again bringing some mild, stormy weather to end the second half of winter. The Gulf Stream I don’t think I could create this forecast without mentioning the current state of the Gulf Stream. It’s something that’s been a hot topic amongst weather forums in the last few weeks, and here’s one of the reasons why. This graphic shows what the Gulf Stream was like in September last year. September 2009 September 2010 Winter 2010/11 Overview So just to summarize, I’m predicting a cold start to winter. I believe the first cold spell to take hold during the second part of September with frosts becoming more frequent across the United Kingdom and early snowfalls pushing down from the North and into Scotland and perhaps higher hills in Northern England. I expect the first half of winter to be generally cold and snowy, as cold if not colder than last year. I think it’ll be generally cold and snowy through November to the middle of January before high pressure begins to break down and the Atlantic takes over for the second half of the winter bringing spells of wet, mild and windy weather, with brief cold snaps as low pressure systems push Eastwards into the North Sea. The oranges/reds on the image above show us where above average sea surface temperatures have developed. The blues/purples show us where below average temperatures. If you look at the Pacific Ocean, you can see a large area of dark blue and purples. This is known as a phenomena called La Nina, and it’s a cooling of the Pacific Ocean. Although not fully understood, it is believed to lower global temperatures and bring colder weather to certain areas and that usually includes the UK. The NAO is currently forecasted to shoot up into a weak positive before slowly moving back down into a weak negative. This sudden change suggests we’re likely to see the Atlantic becoming slightly more active in the next couple of days, we’re likely to continue this unsettled and cool theme for the next week or so at least. When we have a negative NAO, we’re more likely to see high pressure developing in the Atlantic, when we see a positive NAO, we’re more likely to see low pressures developing, and in turn, turning our weather more unsettled. The AO is currently forecast to remain in a weak negative, perhaps becoming increasingly negative during the next 5-8 days. When we have a negative AO (as seen last winter) we have high pressure developing across the Arctic where we want it then if the correct conditions present themselves, that cold air will flood Southwards towards the UK. A positive AO means we see something called the Polar Vortex, which is a system of low pressure systems across the Arctic which make it far harder to lock ourselves into a cold pattern for more than a couple of days. And here’s what the Gulf Stream is looking like this year If you compare the two images above you can see there has definitely been a slowdown and slight decay of the Gulf Stream over the course of the last year, and this is what has gotten so many people interested. Whether this will have any effect on the weather in the coming months is yet to be seen, however.

cold and snowy this will be the big one a massive frezze

Yep and theres no doubt the current has gone very weak its not really getting uk ireland or north france like it was last year If this keeps up we will have a very cold winter and also remember the heat will go when winter hits . You wont see much till october i would think this is why the irish sea is at normal temps for the time of year

hey you may be intrested in this if you have not seen click the link its the 2nd article winter forcast 2010-11 shows uk etc will have a cold winter with lots of snow http://icecap.us/ind...go/new-and-cool Sep 09, 2010 First Look at December to March Global Patterns By Joseph D’Aleo Last winter despite a strong El Nino was very cold (all-time coldest in some areas) in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. A strong La Nina has come on during the summer, a very hot one (all-time in some of the very same areas where the winter was very cold). Other areas had record cool summer. The anomalies were not so much a case of extremes just persistence of the same pattern due to a stuck jet stream configuration. Persistence is a characteristic of low solar years. The last several years have seen a lot of persistence within seasons. Strong El Ninos and La Ninas also tend to exhibit higher persistence. What about this winter? Well with a strong La Nina, cold PDO, warm Atlantic (AMO), QBO transitioning to westerly and a still low solar suggests the following. The 500mb geopotential height anomalies for the globe for December/January: Enlarged here. The surface temperature anomalies globally for December/January: Enlarged here. The 500 mb geopotential height anomaly for February/March: Enlarged here. The surface temperature anomaly for February/March: Enlarged here. The winter (December/January and then February/March) for the United States: Enlarged here. For the US, this implies another cold winter for the upper Midwest, probably again heavy snows for the northwest, Rockies, Northern Plains, Midwest and northern New York and New England with ice storm threat(s) further south. The same for Europe and western Asia: Enlarged here. This should mean more snow and cold for Great Britain and eventually much of Europe where they are getting used to weather more like the Dalton Minimum with snowy winters and long cold spells. The winter should start out cold in central and eastern United States, Western Europe and China. A cool summer start seems in the cards for South America. The late winter looks very cold in Europe and western Asia, while the cold retreats west in the United States. Blocking in the Arctic/North Atlantic, last year at a 60 year record level, appears to be again a major factor. If you ask does this approach work, see how it worked last year when in the fall we predicted this pattern (height anomalies which correspond to surface temperature anomalies) for the winter at 500mb (enlarged here): This is what the 500mb anomalies actually looked like (enlarged here): More to come. PDF See Joe laminate floori’s take on it here. Joe nailed last winters heavy snow and cold in the south up to the Mid-Atlantic.

hey where is that can u post the link so i can view intrested in weather geek he seems to be good also polish weather experts where the discussion

[thethe chart thats up here from last year and the one up now shows the gulf stream is allmost 90 percent less then it was is this normal does it happen from time to time this looks strange to me

check out this blog what do you think http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/

theres more info here http://pesn.com/2010/08/01/9501682_Gull_Loop_Current_Stalls_from_BP_Spill/ and lots of google about it and the sat images do show big changes

have a look at this site and this The North Atlantic Current is Gone http://europebusines.blogspot.com/

hey yes i see the jet but looks like it allways did i mean before last year when it went south now it looks like its back where it allways was or am i wrong and its still south of uk and ireland just like winter 2009

Ok so where is the jetstream now is it still south of the uk and ireland or is it back up to where it allways was sorry i dont know much about the jetstream and how come we get no east winds i think the west winds are back to stay for the winter of 2011