hugogo

I was just showing many examples, i never meant to say that it was a fact that many years starting in cold conditions saw a cold summer. In fact if i only talked about the years since 1950 its because the harsh winters in the preceding decades were usually followed by very warm summers [1947, 1929, 1895, 1893]. In the end my conviction is that there is no possible correlation between the average temp over the first 5 months and the next summer, and i was using examples only to prove that what had been said was wrong. Not to prove any other point. However, when we do observe a very cold beginning of year linked to a very unusual pattern [not talking specificly of this year], then i would say if the pattern is sufficient to cause a notable anomaly over such a long period, than this pattern could be strong enough to last for a while. The problem is, in the space of one or 2 weeks, it can break and make room for a new very different pattern: if this happens end of may than we could well end up with a record warmth in june.. Thats why seasonal forecasts are so complicated, i believe.

Absolutely not: its not because the preceding months were rather cold that the following months will be warm... This is basic probabilities. Indeed a 5 degrees below average months can come in the middle of two very hot months, even if the chances are very small. More importantly, there have been many examples through out the past of very cold winters being followed by very bad springs and summers: in France for example, february 1956 was the coldest of the 20th century with an average temperature over the country 10 degrees below average. March 1956 was cold in france, april also, may saw wintery showers, june was one of the coldest on record, july and august saw windstorms and rain on many occasions and people had to wait until september to a last get some good weather. Same thing happened in 1963, with the coldest winter followed by a cold spring and summer in France. 1979, 1985, 1986 and 1987 all saw cold winters with severe frosts, and all the following springs and summers were notably cold over much of Western Europe. In fact it seems that many of the coldest winters over Europe between 1950 and nowadays were followed by a persistent cold weather pattern over Western Europe [same thing in 1954 also, with a very cool summer in France]. It will be interesting to see how this year will come out, as for now a part from a very mild spell in the second half of march and another one end of april, the weather has been mostly cold and sometimes even very cold over much of UK and France, all this thanks to a very unusual dominant weather pattern: how long is this going to last?? Because as long as it does, no notable warm and sunny periods will be seen over Britain.

That month was bitterly cold in the whle of Europe, with a cold spell around the 10th of april which broke many monthly records over France: Here is the situation on the 4th of april, already very cold: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=4&month=4&year=1986&hour=0&map=0 Freezing north easterly for several days: 6th of april: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=6&month=4&year=1986&hour=0&map=0 on the 9th, very cold air massed over Spitzberg in the close arctic sea: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=9&month=4&year=1986&hour=0&map=0 The 12th, incredibly cold weather reaches western Europ: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=11&month=4&year=1986&hour=0&map=0 Up to -12 up around 1400m! THe weather turns gradually milder afterwards an comes back to average around the 20th of april.

Thanks a lot for the information. I will see if I can find any thing else on the internet.

As I was reading through summary of European climate from the 1300s, I read about an incredible cold wave that affected much of Europe during the monthe of April 1595. Indeed after a very severe winter, it is said that the temperatures reached such low levels that people died from the cold in France around the 12th of the month, and birds died in their millions. Has anyone heard of this event affecting the UK??

Temperatures reached record lows accross much of Europe that year in february with -26.0 in Berlin, -27 in Prag, -31.0 in clermont Ferrand in France, and un to -30 degrees in centrale Europe. even in western France, temperatures dipped to -19.0 degrees in Rennes. The monthly average reached -10 degres to -15 degres over much of central and eastern Europe. The frost was still exeptionally intense during the beginning of march 1929, with temperatures fallin under -10 degres celsius in Eastern France, and -20 in Eastern Europe as close as Eastern Germany. This was on of the coldest winters of the 20th century over Europe with 1940 and 1942, and the worst february frost with 1956.

Thank you, I will have a look more closely then. Oh and if anyone here is interested, I have found data for Helsinki since 1850 and for Iena since 1825.

So no one has any info on where to find any data for the events??? It would be very interesting to be able to get this data and compare it with recent cold winters, and just to remind ourselves of how cold the weather can get over our continent...

Hey, I don't know if any of you know this link: http://www.meteociel.com/ Excellent website, you've got observations for every country including Britain here: http://www.meteociel.com/obs/pays.php?pays=United+Kingdom&jour=13&mois=1&annee=2010&heure=15&ok=OK You've got the model forecasts aswell [uKMO, CEP, GFS, NOGAPS, GEM, JMA, WRF...], and of course a decent observation map for France and surrounding countries. Have fun! Hugo.

Hello, First I would like to present myself as it is the forts time that I post on this forum: I have been living in London for the past 13 years but I am french [nationality family parents etc...] and therefore sometimes my written English can be a bit dodgy... I hope you will stil be able to read me I have been looking for daily data for European weather stations dating back to the 19th, and more importantly 18th and sometimes even 17th century, as y am trying to work on the very harsh winters or other spells of unusual weather that occured during this period. I have been looking for months now, and this is what I have foun for the moment: Daily data for Prague [not sure about the name in English?] since 1777, for TN, TX and TM, Bologna [italie] TN TX and TM dating back to 1811, Milan [italie], TN TX and TM dating back to 1767 and Uccle [belgium] since 1767 I Think for TN. I have also found TM for Stockholm since 1756. Most of this data provides from ECA&D website: http://eca.knmi.nl/dailydata/index.php However I have heard of many more daily data that I havn't managed to find on the internet. Therefore I am looking fo daily data from anywhere in Europe in the purpose of drawing temperature maps for the coldest days in the past centuries. To my knowlegde there are approximatively 30 weather stations which opened in the 18th century over Europe. I data is not available for any of the other stations, temperature extremes for intense cold spells would stll be very useful. Also, I have found on the CET data dating back to the 1770s, but My computer is not able to download the daily data for some reason [i am working on a Macbook with safari, does someone know where the problem commes from??]. Therefore, I would be really thankful if someone could copy some data for the following dates which are the ones that i am most interested in: January/February 1776. December 1783-january 1784 cold wave. February-March 1785 extreme cold wave [from an other world this one...] December 1788-January 1789 cold wave January 1795. Winter of 1799. winter 1800 [coldspell in dec-jan] winter 1803 [colds wave in jan feb i think] Winter 1820 [cold wave in jan? 1823 [cold wave in january i believe...] 1829. 1830 February/March 1845 1848. Dec 1870-Jan 1871 Dec 1879. Winter 1891 [dec to Feb] 1893 [january]. 1895 [january through to february 1929 [jan to feb]. 1940, 1942, 1947 winters. 1956 february. 1963 winter [of course lol] 1985 january cold wave. 1987 january cold wave. Thank you for any information concerning any of these events. Hugo.