moffatross
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Posts posted by moffatross
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It's wild down here in Moffat now.
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Still looking good for the SW. Most models now suggest that the SW side of the Southern Uplands should get pounded by the frontal snow tomorrow. Here are the latest GFS, Met Office and ECM interpretations of the fresh to come just at Moffat town level ...
GFS ...
ECM ...
Met Office ...
The GFS ensemble shows the operational was on the conservative side too. One of the runs is pretty mad ...
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It looks like the scottish ski industry must be rubbing their hands in glee at the late season prospects!!
They'll certainly be hoping it's good for Easter but already, skier numbers are just a fraction of what they were a month ago because people are losing interest and despite plenty of snow, the likes of Glencoe and Nevis usually end up opening weekends only, if at all. It's a shame that they often get some of the most Alpine like conditions in March and April but not enough customers to justify opening during the week. Glenshee rarely survives Easter as the sun gets to work on its road side slopes. Its main area to the east of the A93 is most prone and they don't call it 'sunnyside' for nothing.
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Loads and loads of snow falling at Glenshee today for powder skiing everywhere you went. More than just a dusting of fresh snow in Moffat tonight too as these Easterly carried showers are pushing right across the Southern Uplands.
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The snow has decorated the window frames, Dickensian Christmas style.
If it doesn't snow in Moffat again for the rest of the winter, can I at least have this one please. Awesome
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Sorry for being pessimistic but I really can't see any excitement with April showers and wet ground.
You are being too pessimistic.
These showers are penetrating right across the country without losing much of their potency at all. Yes, there's a lot of cold rain below 400 metres just now and whilst dew points are still above freezing where most people live, that won't change. Sorry if I'm sounding like I'm teaching you to suck eggs but forget the wet ground as it's not important after the DP's drop later this afternoon. The laws of physics mean that the puddles will have to either evaporate or freeze. The showers (of snow by then) are progged to continue and maybe even pep up through this evening and overnight. Snow will settle.
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Nice one LS. I always appreciate your analysis and love your maps too.
I'm working from home tomorrow so I'm hopeful that I can watch the action unfold as Moffatshire seems rather well placed.
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The new Met Office yellow warning for tomorrow's snow is pretty special ...
Issued at - 03 Feb 2013, 12:05
Valid from - 04 Feb 2013, 03:00
Valid to - 04 Feb 2013, 23:59
Heavy, squally wintry showers will affect many parts of Scotland through much of Monday. These will probably fall largely as sleet and hail along some western coasts, but will readily turn to snow inland and at any elevation. 10 to 20 cm of snow may affect higher level routes, with drifting and temporary blizzard conditions, while further up in the mountains, conditions will be atrocious. At lower levels, amounts of snowfall will be more variable but the worst affected areas could see 5 to 10 cm of snowfall, with some drifting. Winds will gust to 50 or 60 mph near the heavier showers but considerably higher over mountains.
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That low on Friday could be interesting. Hail and snow showers as it clears through, assuming the centre passes south of Scotland.
More than just showers in Moffat according to the raw GFS
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Off to Glenshee tomorrow - I vow to build a snowman in remembrance to all those who have fallen (or are currently falling) in the Central belt. Wha's like us, gie few an their awe deid!
I'll keep a look-out for snowmen. Think even the GS ones are going to get rained on tonight though. I'm heading up there later tonight, blow-up mattress, sleeping bag in sleeping bag, single malt to help me sleep.
Had a great few hours on Hart Fell above Moffat today. Snow was so nice that it made for some of the best skiing I've ever had in Scotland away from good days in the Back Corries etc. Absolutely stunning weather for most of today too which was good because you could see the avalanche prone areas of wind slab to avoid. Some safe, steepish lines could be had above the gully drifts though. Spot the ski tracks
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Absolutely dumping snow in Moffat again after the earlier drizzly partial thaw.
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Steady snow @ -1.1C. Moffat Academy .... open as usual.
The Met Office forecast for the rest of the day is proper eye candy. Fingers crossed ...
Shame it's abut to end but If the snow stays on all or most of the day, it will be a good finish to a 1/2 decent wintry spell with several refreshes and snow lying in Moffat since 13th January.
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Skied a few turns behind the house today
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Several road closures in the south ... http://trafficscotland.org/weather/index.aspx?regionid=5&b=a2114
The A708 from Moffat to Selkirk is closed, and surprised the A701 to Edinburgh is still open TBH.
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Hasn't stopped snowing all day here (A701 between Broughton and Moffat).
It's been snowing in Moffat all day too but not particularly heavily.
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Drove from Glenshee to Moffat between 4.30-7.30, dry snow falling down to Fife, despite air temps being as high as 2 C but then rain falling Edinburgh & south with air temps as low as -2.5C, well inland and at altitude above 1,000 feet. That suggests a significant mild sector in the upper air just now which I hope it gets blown away soon.
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Jeez, I thought I was bad for ramping. Is he on coke or something? Do his clients really pay him to write HALF OF HIS SENTENCES IN CAP LOCKS TO SCARE EVERYONE ABOUT HOW MUCH SNOW AND WIND AND LIGHTNING AND FIRE THERE WILL BE?
Just a wee reminder what Piers Corbyn's tea leaves actually said ...
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January 2013 Key basic weather developments:
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The first week will see a ‘Battle Of Britain’ situation taken-over by cold air as a variable North block of High pressure develops at times.
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8-16th A large outflux of cold air from Scandinavia / Russia is likely to sweep across much of Britain & Ireland.
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17-21st The cold air is attacked by an active low from the SW while a separate powerful polar-type low attacks NE / E parts bringing heavy snow and blizzards in both regions (prob rain later in SW and Eire).
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22-31st Another N / NE’ly strong flow of very cold air becomes established till near end of month when a ‘Battle Of Britain’ col develops and major blizzards take-over Jan 31st to Feb 3rd.
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Likely to be in the 8 coldest Januaries in the last 100 years in EAST and NORTH and perhaps Central parts (East and North colder relative to normal than Central, SouthWest & Eire).
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January 2013 Key basic weather developments:
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Could you explain why the front being 15 miles further west is good for the east? Thanks.
It is the HP over Scandi which is holding the Atlantic back at the moment and stops the eastward progress of tomorrow's front. I think that consequently, gradients will end up tighter so that the SE'ly wind is colder and stronger with the cold pool nearer, the further west that HP ends up as it retrogresses towards its destination somewhere between Iceland and Norway over the weekend. So the the further west it all is, the more convective activity might end up being pulled off the North Sea. Quite useless for Moffat by the way.
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12Z NAE has the furthest progress of tomorrow's front another 15 miles or so further west. Perversely, this is getting better for the east.
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GFS 18z - just bizarre how this model drops the ball sometimes. Here it is along with the rest, yes that is a Chinese model, didn't include the Brazilian as it looks like it is all over the shop on Meteociel between 00z and 12z.
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Over to the 00z and mesoscale ones !
Thanks lorenzo, that little collection really highlights just how much the GFS is going it alone in the mid-term. Hopefully it's wrong and its short-term solutions are just as gubbed and we'll see a return to the snow-fest on the morning's higher res models too.
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Yeh, that the Wednesday 12z (12:00) plus 48 hours, so image of Friday 12:00.
But my link wasn't the 12 Z I'm afraid.
Plenty of time to change favourably again though. -
Sorry to say that the 18Z NAE gives even the west a much reduced precipitation total for Friday and appears to be siding with the GFS ... 18Z NAE total ppn
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I really like the way this is shaping up for Moffat again.
"By the end of Friday .... Southern Uplands in Scotland can expect in excess of 20cm, and possibly 30cm."
http://uk.weather.com/partners-januaryoutlook/011613forecast
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Aside from the roads, which are clear but have large piles of snow ploughings at the verges, we still have 100% snow cover in Moffat and that's all frozen, crispy solid.
A six inch top-up on Friday will make for a great skiing base in the hills.
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Plenty of time to change favourably again though. 
Scotland - Alba Regional Discussion 20/03/13 21z ------>
in Regional
Posted
The sudden shift in the Meteox 'next 3 hours' animation following on from its recent radar frames clearly shows that this front isn't behaving quite as anticipated ...
http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=exp