Arctic Hare

Miserable here in North Worcs today. It's barely stopped raining (albeit mostly quite lightly) since I got up, and looking at the radar the hoped-for late brightness just isn't going to happen here. Cold, too: only 7 .6 °C right now. Pretty much exactly the kind of weather I've more than had my fill of this autumn. Hopefully a little more brightness between the showers tomorrow, but today is sadly a write-off.

I was just thinking of the 2005 Birmingham one when reading about this. That said, wasn't there a pretty strong tornado in London in 2006? (Pedantry alert: Jersey isn't in the UK, so this won't appear in UK stats anyway.)

I'm assuming Pointe du Raz is a very exposed location, especially as it's one of the few in that first list that doesn't have "Record absolu" next to the gust... but even so, 207 km/h is 129 mph. I'm going off memory, but I think that would be an all-time record for England if it happened here. It's indeed extraordinary.

Grotty weather this morning. Chilly and wet, with blustery winds -- although fortunately not the same kind of winds as the far south.

Looking over at the models thread briefly, the ECM 12z looks somewhat dire. This October started so well, but it looks like ending (and November starting) on a pretty miserable note. Sadly I suspect flooding will be a significant issue again in a week or so. I know I'm a broken record on this, but we really badly need a couple of weeks, continuously, of mostly dry weather. If that ECM is anywhere near, not a chance.

I'd probably give October 5/10 so far. Higher for the first part, lower for more recently. Yes, the recent exceptional rain was interesting, but I have had more than my fill of flooding now. If the end of this week turns out as unpleasant as it might, then it could go down to 3/10 or so. I am already starting to dread what a wet winter might bring. I would take any form of dry winter, even if it was snow-and-frost-free almost entirely, over yet more drenching.

The Severn at Bewdley is at 4.54m and rising, albeit slowly now, so it's a relief that the flood barriers are now up on the town side. A number of houses and businesses would be flooded by now otherwise. Unfortunately the Wribbenhall (east) side can't have its usual temporary flood defences because of the extensive works to install... permanent flood defences. Those will take 18 months, so people living there have two full winters to get through. It's going to be an anxious time.

Overcast and dull (in all senses) this morning, 9.0 °C. At least it's dry, which right now is the most important thing... but surprise surprise, the forecast last night for a decent amount of sun today has been heavily downgraded.

Surely the severe spell was in November and December 2010, therefore winter 10/11 rather than 09/10. Though there was significant snow in Jan 2010 too, which was 09/10, it was the late 2010 spell that was really exceptional.

Yes, this for sure. The traditional ever-changing weather we have in these parts seems to be moving to something rather different. If things continue like this then I imagine those whose jobs involve planning for such things (eg transport bodies) are going to have to change some of their long-held assumptions in the years ahead. Resilience will require the ability to cope with weather such as we've just had, or indeed heatwaves like 2022's, more than once in a blue moon. (Just as one example that comes to mind, rail track will need to be designed to be less prone to buckling in 30+ heat if that's going to happen quite frequently.)

They don't really seem to have that effect here, probably because just downstream of the town is low-lying undeveloped floodplain anyway.

The sheer speed of the rises has been something very notable in many parts. This is the Severn in Bewdley yesterday. It rose something like 2 metres between breakfast and lunchtime, which is practically unheard of for a river this size. Run-off from the brooks was exceptional, but even so there's normally more time to react.

The sun is out here in Worcestershire!

We desperately do *not* "need the rain" in these parts, we need some extended dry weather to let people clear up! I'm not bothered about temperatures, cold and dry would do me just as well as mild and dry. But sadly this doesn't seem on the cards any time soon, and weeks more of wet weather will mean yet more flooding, that's a certainty now.

Still raining here, but very lightly now, nuisance value more than anything. Down by the river it's a different story with the failure to get the flood barriers up in time (conflicting reports about why, but a lot of unhappiness in the town) but myself I'm fortunate to be well away from the river. A normal grey, murky, overcast, drizzly autumn day now. Stupendously boring, but I think a lot of people here will welcome some boring weather. An extraordinarily fast rise yesterday for a river as big as the Severn. Dave Throup (ex-EA) says that exceptional runoff from the surrounding brooks is the likely cause.

Bewdley flood barriers 'haven’t gone up in time' WWW.KIDDERMINSTERSHUTTLE.CO.UK Flood water from the River Severn is reaching close to Bewdley businesses on Severn Side. Former Environment Agency area manager Dave Throup said on… Not a great piece of news from my town... turns out the flood barriers (which are very effective when they're up) were not in fact deployed here. "The rain across the West Midlands area has fallen further south and with much more intensity than our models predicted," is how the EA guy is quoted in the article. Scroll down a bit and there's also a statement from the town council saying there were plant equipment failures. All in all, a bit of a disaster and the first time there's been flooding like that on the town side of the river since the flood barriers were first installed many years ago. They're great but only work if they're actually up, so I imagine people living there will want some proper answers about what went wrong and how it can be avoided in future.

Buses are apparently a lot harder to source than they used to be. Some of the reasons are political so I'll skip over that aspect, but one factor is that there is a serious shortage of qualified bus/coach drivers in some parts of the country. No available driver = no rail replacement bus.

Looking around the local rain gauges, about 50 mm (in 24 hours) seems to be fairly widespread, eg Trimpley (a little up the river from me) has had that. A lot obviously, but so far at least we've got away with "ordinary" flooding for the most part, not the horrific scenes from places like Chesterfield.

To be fair red warnings specifically are extremely rare, but I do sometimes wonder whether the number of yellows we get for fairly everyday conditions (especially with the poor design of the map on the MetO website with so many overlapping warning areas) perhaps desensitises some people to the extent that they stop paying much attention.

It's the following week for us in Worcestershire, but I expect some places are this coming week.

My detailed and considered view from the window: it's bloomin' wet out there. Very dark too -- I still need the light on to read. Even though it looks like places just to the NE of our region, eg Sheffield, will have a rougher time than the Midlands, I could definitely see some localised flooding around here today.

A mild (17.4 °C) and humid day here, though not too wet and even with the odd glimpse of sunshine. Tomorrow a different story... I note from the Storm Babet thread that GFS now has our region being absolutely battered by rain tomorrow. Not far short of 100 mm by 6 am Sat in some places to the E/S of Brum, and 50 mm+ very widely. Not a day to be outdoors if you can help it!

One last pretty decent day today. Reasonably mild (14.1 °C) and quite bright, though the wind has been picking up. Felt well enough to go out into the garden for a bit, and I'm glad I did. I have a horrible feeling that the last two days probably saw more sunshine than we'll get in the next two weeks...

Currently 4.0 °C here, so already the coldest night of the autumn. I think ground frost is a possibility here. Looks a nice day tomorrow, though I've got Covid so I won't be able to go further than the garden to enjoy it! Doubtless I will recover just in time for two solid weeks of screaming SW'lies and constant rain and gloom.

20.3 °C here and never properly clear, lots of high cloud around and the sun mostly only hazy. More than good enough to sit in the pub beer garden with a drink and a bowl of ice cream, though!