Secret Society
-
Posts
18 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Secret Society
-
-
bets on next GFS run to be snowy armageddon again?
-
The UKMO, ECM and metoffice are on board for a cold easterly by Friday the only model that isn't is the GFS. We only all follow the GFS because of the Data centre on here providing a comprehensive breakdown of all the output and interpreting it into precipitype / snow depths etc. I would expect the GFS to fall back in line tommorow.
re gfs
from what i read so far this winter, its constantly being dragged kicking and screaming to be in line with the euros, making it look very poor.
its gets worse year by year.
i just see it as a freebie model used by weather sites for free forecasts. eg two etc
even noaa marvel at ukmo/ecm this winter.
-
i stopped looking at GFS about 3 years ago.
dont know why people are still even consider it a model.
-
i find it funny people still beleive in the models.
they didnt know their butt from their elbow last week for days on end.
in the end UKMO won out (with human intervention)
-
well at least the so called even larger teapot has come to a crashing end..
agree the situation is like early jan , potential for a whiteout again early next week
-
superb summary courtesy ukww PJB
http://ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=35183&posts=2&start=1
-
I wondered what charts they use because they still insist sunday turning cooler with a easterley developing.
well early evening forecasts could have used 00Z and were too late to include in 5pm/6pm broadcasts with the ones on 12z.
but latest late evening forecast ive seen now mention nothing about weekend and wont go past tomorrow.
-
Whatever anyone thinks about the GFS it's still the best model at introducing trends. Furthermore if the GFS re-introduced a raging easterly tomorrow it would become everyones favourite model again.
I don't think it's the models here that have the problem, it's probably the assessment of the models in the near time frame, which given the current lack of certainty is not surprising.
No one can be blamed for being confused, but for me GFS is still as good a model as the ECM/UKMO, every model has it's ups and downs from time to time.
In a situations like this it would be unreasonable to say a models wrong when they're all finding it difficult to deal with the situation.
i think you will find if it only came out twice a day, it would look even more laughable.
is it any wonder the U.S hardly use it during winter and refer to ecm.
-
People pay attention to the GFS becausethe quantity of the data (because it's all freely available), not because of it's quality. ECM and UKMO are consistently more accurate than it.
The stats prove that.
yep at the end of that day, quality not quantity is what works.
-
i cant believe folks Are STILL LOOKING at GFS
just watch ukmo and ecm.
groundhog phil has better consistency than the GFS
-
Briefly milder then very, very cold
As January draws to a close we can confirm that for the whole of the UK, December and January have been the coldest since the winter of 1981/1982. In Scotland it has been the coldest December and January since records began, way back in 1914. It looks like February will do nothing to bring the average temperature up a bit, in fact quite the opposite.
Monday 1 February 2010 to Sunday 7 February 2010
Eventually turning milder
It will take until about Wednesday for the whole of the UK to get back into the milder westerly airstream from the Atlantic. Before then it does turn briefly milder in Scotland with some rain and hill snow, but we're soon back into the colder northerly airstream. Further south it will be a little milder and wetter through Monday night into Tuesday. The second half of the week and into the weekend sees west or southwesterly winds across the UK. With that comes milder conditions, but also bands of rain in association with low pressure systems. During Wednesday, as the transition happens, there could be some significant snow from the Midlands northwards.
Monday 8 February 2010 to Sunday 14 February 2010
Bitter cold returning
High pressure, an anticyclone, will build over Greenland and Scandinavia, and this is going to have a big impact on our weather. Around the edge of that high comes a bitterly cold easterly wind. Temperatures will be well below average for all parts of the UK, with a noticeable windchill factor and severe overnight frosts. Rainfall amounts are likely to be below normal, however snow could well come out of the near continent to affect southern areas at times. Many places will enjoy some cold sunshine but the skies in eastern Scotland and northeast England will probably be rather cloudy.
Monday 15 February 2010 to Sunday 28 February 2010
Staying very cold
There looks to be little change in the big picture. The large anticylone remains in place producing very cold easterly winds and blocking the progress of Atlantic frontal systems from the southwest. It's going to stay very cold with well below average temperatures and severe overnight frosts. Amounts of precipitation are expected to be around normal in the south and east of the UK, but drier than average conditions are expected in the northwest.
Next week
Will the cold march into March?
looks like someones removed references to very cold and bitter now stuart...
cheers
-
It's their way of backtracking...nice and gently and hope no-one notices! Expect the words cold or rather cold to disappear in the next day or two if the model output continues to trend in the way it has been for the last day or so.
that doesnt sound very professional.
why would they do that?
yet you were saying they are best?
writing lies is not their business.
-
game not over?
UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2010 to Sunday 14 Feb 2010:
A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK at the end of the first week of February with a chance of south or southeasterly winds reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time with this most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend although rain or showers continue in many places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the second week of the month. Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later.
Updated: 1152 on Sun 31 Jan 201
-
it can still come good...
i just think its just delayed a little.
another twist on the cards i feel.
the met 15 dayer will be telling today
-
Further to my previous post, the ECM London ensembles are out:
http://www.meteogrou...e_forecast.html
Whilst the ECM was at the top end of the temperature scale, it was not an outlier. As a whole, the ensemble suite is the mildest set for several runs.
The T+120 FAX for February 4th is similar to the ECM T+120 output, and a look at the ensembles shows the operational was not an outlier for this time, hence the reason the pro's have come up with that FAX chart.
18Z GFS ensembles for London:
http://91.121.94.83/...ndres&runpara=0
Edging ever further away from a deep cold trend.
as per the reply on two from the met, the met 15 day is done on the 00z. the faxes were not taken into account earlier today.
until it changes the easterly is still on
-
Tonights models paint a horror story for cold weather fans. At least we have a few snow showers here this evening to keep me happy
yes its not been a cold snowy winter so far has it?
yawn
-
I'm not drunk at all! I'm just stating the obvious mate.
Regarding the word "drunk" it's my birthday tomorrow, so i will be from mid-day onwards, so a little warning, you don't want me to be online lol!
Model Output Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
oh dear, GFS and its ensembles, hmm chocolate teapot.
nothing changes