TimS

The most recent indicators seem to show a possible double-peak to this unusual El Nino. See this from NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf and the latest SOI from BOM: The Easterly anomalies that were subduing propagation of warm subsurface water to the surface and confusing the wider ENSO atmospheric signals seem to have given way to anomalous westerlies again, and a dropping SOI. An interesting El Nino this one. Slow to get going, has proceeded by sudden leaps, and has at various times threatened to be a mega event or a damp squib. It does seem like the wider circulation has not been very conducive to sustaining a Nino. The latest model outlooks though show an unusually slow decline from its peak - biggish events like these usually decline and reverse pretty quickly, with the exception of the sustained early-mid 90s El Nino.